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52

FCNCA

๐Ÿฆ Financial Services

First Citizens BancShares, Inc.

Conservative #502Aggressive #1008Low RiskLow 37MLโ†‘ 31pt
$1995.70+0.74%
Day High$2014.42
Day Low$1973.56
Volume0.1M
Mkt Cap$24.5B
52W Low $147452W High $2232
Market Cap
$24.7B
P/E Ratio
11.3
Sector avg: 50.1
Rev Growth
-3.0%
Sector avg: 13.3%
Earnings Growth
-20.6%
Profit Margin
15.2%
Sector avg: -2.1%
Debt/Equity
1.62

Why This Score

FCNCA scores 52.3 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Attractively valued at 11.3x earnings, below the market average.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.62) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Moderate penalties (-5.8 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score52.3
Fundamental Score56.1
ML Score42.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
72.8
6 Month
81.3
Primary
1 Year
85.6

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
48
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
61
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
53
Grade Clow volume, low float
Base
49.1
SHAP
+3.0
Factors
+1.0
Divergence
-0.8
Final
52.3
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)46.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)63.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)77.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-0.7% to +5.9%
Medium-term
-0.5% to +9.5%
Long-term
-0.4% to +13.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 42

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score61.4/100
Target Upside+14.2%
Coverage11 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score48.0/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum-0.0%
6M Momentum+0.0%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-3.0%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.80)
Relative Strength vs Sector-10.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.3)
Momentum Quality-0.015
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
34%
High risk โ€” cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P14
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P62
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P64
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
-0.1ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
YES
Below-sector growth + cheap PE
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 55 relative to sector peers55/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 87th percentileP87
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +4.4pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (55.4) + 9% ML (86.7) + SHAP(+4.4) = 62.6โ€”
Factor quality: +1.4pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 6.4%. Stability bonus of +9.1 points. Max drawdown 10% (-0.9 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: +2.0 points ($24.7B market cap)+2.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -1.2pt (conviction=37)โ€”
Divergence penalty: -3.2pt (ML 31pt higher)โ€”
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -10 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-28.6%) โ€” earnings quality concern; CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure โ€” forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentals; High leverage: D/E ratio of 1.6x โ€” elevated balance sheet riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services โ€” Rank #151 of 365 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
FCNCA52.311.3-3.0%15.2%$24.7B
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.550.113.3%-2.1%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold11 analysts
Buy: 5Hold: 6
Price Target
$2220consensus
Low $2100Median $2225High $2346
+11.2% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

First Citizens BancShares, Inc. operates as the holding company for First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company that provides retail and commercial banking services to individuals, businesses, and professionals. The company's deposit products include checking, savings, money market, and time deposit accounts. Its loan product portfolio comprises commercial construction and land development, commercial mortgage, commercial and industrial, and lease financing loans, as well as small business administration paycheck protection program loans; and consumer loans, such as residential and revolving mortgage, construction and land development, consumer auto, and other consumer loans. The company also offers treasury services products, cardholder and merchant services, wealth management services, and various other products and services; investment products, including annuities, discount brokerage services, and third-party mutual funds, as well as investment management and advisory services; and defined benefit and defined contribution, insurance, private banking, trust, fiduciary, philanthropy, and special asset services. The company provides its products and services through its branch network, as well as through digital banking, telephone banking, and various ATM networks. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 529 branches in Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Kansas, Maryland, Missouri, North Carolina, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin, and West Virginia. First Citizens BancShares, Inc. was founded in 1898 and is headquartered in Raleigh, North Carolina.

CEO
Frank Brown Holding Jr.
Employees
17,191
Beta
0.67
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
35.8
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-10.6%
High: $2232.21
From 52W Low
+35.4%
Low: $1473.62
Moving Averages
10-Day
$2016.70
Below
20-Day
$2055.00
Below
50-Day
$2105.00
Below
200-Day
$1949.80
Above
60-Day Support
$1870.9
60-Day Resistance
$2232.21
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 62/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+2.4%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+3.82%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.13x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
61
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$3.7B$3.7B$3.6B$3.5B
Gross Profit$2.3B$2.2B$2.3B$2.1B
Operating Income$811M$751M$758M$651M
Net Income$580M$568M$575M$483M
EPS (Diluted)$45.81$43.12$42.36$34.47
Gross Margin62.1%60.6%62.3%60.7%
Operating Margin22.2%20.3%20.9%18.5%
Net Margin15.9%15.4%15.9%13.7%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 11.3Profit margin 15.2%Valuation below sector median (P/E 11.3)

Tradability FilterGrade C โ€” 53/100Score impact: +7.8pt

Volume
15
96K avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$189M/day
Float
10
8M shares
Mkt Cap
87
$24.7B
Range
86
51% spread
Composite Liquidity Score53/100
FDCBA
low volumelow float

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 6/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$727.70$915.4022.8%Narrow
2022$598.01$947.7145.2%Wide
2023$505.84$1528.12100.5%Wide
2024$1363.97$2388.7854.6%Wide
2025$1473.62$2412.9348.3%Wide
3-Year Range
130.7%
Narrow Years
1 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.49x dampening
weinstein basingslight revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
65.8%
Outstanding Shares
12M
Bid-Ask Spread
51.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.