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16

EVLV

🏭 Industrials

Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc.

Conservative #1322Aggressive #953Moderate Risk
$5.36+0.94%
Day High$5.46
Day Low$5.26
Volume1.8M
Mkt Cap$936M
52W Low $352W High $9
Market Cap
$878M
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
29.2%
Sector avg: 19.0%
Earnings Growth
49.2%
Profit Margin
-43.8%
Sector avg: -48.2%
Debt/Equity
0.41

Why This Score

EVLV scores 16.4 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High conviction (83/100) β€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (17.6%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -14.1 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, EVLV would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score16.4
Fundamental Score29.9
ML Score6.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
37.9
6 Month
42.4
Primary
1 Year
44.6

Quality Assessment

F
Quality Grade
Low quality β€” significant fundamental weaknesses
Speculative Classification
Speculative growth β€” negative margins and ROE with momentum-driven price action. High risk of mean reversion.
Speculative micro-cap β€” no earnings, sub-$2B market cap, momentum-driven. Position sizing should reflect elevated risk.
Conservative score reduced by 6 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4.6%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
89
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
71
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
82
Grade A
Base
19.1
SHAP
-3.4
Factors
+0.5
Conviction
+1.6
Divergence
-1.3
Final
16.4
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

48AVG
Value50
Quality0
Growth99
Stability68
Investment23

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)65.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)48.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)90.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-11.8% to -3.8%
Medium-term
-16.1% to -4.5%
Long-term
-20.4% to -5.2%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs β†’ ML Score: 6

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score71.4/100
Target Upside+103.7%
Coverage7 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score88.6/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 β€” Declining
12M Momentum+0.6%
6M Momentum-0.3%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+91.5%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.51)
Relative Strength vs Sector+49.8%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.4)
Momentum Quality+0.417
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P86
Revenue growth vs Industrials peers
Sector PE Rank
P56
Valuation vs Industrials peers
Sector FCF Rank
P14
Free cash flow vs Industrials peers
Growth Deviation
+0.3Οƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 30 relative to sector peers30/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 6th percentileP6
Blended score: 80% fundamental (30) + 20% ML (6) = 25.125.1
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.2%; Drawdown 31% β†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade F: quality flags triggered β€” see details below. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade F
Conviction adj: +1.6pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Divergence penalty: -1.3pt (ML 24pt lower)Divergence
Risk Factors
Speculative: SPEC_GROWTH, SPEC_MICRO (6.0pt penalty)Speculative

Sector Peer Comparison(Industrials β€” Rank #129 of 135 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
EVLV16.4N/A29.2%-43.8%$878M
FER84.112.27.4%35.3%$52.6B
NDSN77.235.13.8%17.4%$16.2B
OMAB76.420.14.3%32.7%$6.1B
ODFL76.339.8-0.9%20.4%$40.8B
FAST73.142.68.7%15.3%$51.7B
CSX71.526.5-3.1%20.5%$78.9B
WWD71.347.87.3%12.4%$23.0B
LECO71.331.5-4.4%11.6%$15.6B
PCAR71.028.2-4.2%12.4%$65.1B
CTAS70.841.97.7%17.5%$80.3B
RYAAY69.913.03.8%11.6%$36.1B
CPRT69.523.09.7%33.4%$35.6B
FELE69.335.5-2.1%8.9%$4.3B
NSSC68.934.5-3.8%24.7%$1.7B
AEIS68.081.221.4%8.3%$12.3B
Sector Average45.849.919.0%-48.2%β€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. provides artificial intelligence (AI)-based touchless security screening systems. Its products include Evolv Express, a touchless security screening system designed to detect firearms, improvised explosive devices, and tactical knives as visitors walk through at a normal pace; Evolv Insights that provides self-serve access, insights regarding visitor flow and arrival curves, location specific performance, system detection performance, and alarm statistics; and Evolv Edge to detect non-metallic explosive devices, explosive devices, firearms, and tactical knives without requiring visitors to divest or empty their pockets. The company is headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts.

CEO
John Kedzierski
Employees
287
Beta
1.86
Industry
Security & Protection Services
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
51.9
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-39.8%
High: $8.91
From 52W Low
+103%
Low: $2.64
Moving Averages
10-Day
$5.40
Below
20-Day
$5.50
Below
50-Day
$6.30
Below
200-Day
$6.70
Below
60-Day Support
$4.87
60-Day Resistance
$7.48
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 β€” DecliningScore: 25/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-20%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+14.89%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.15x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
21
Confidence: 40%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$43M$33M$32M$29M
Gross Profit$21M$16M$19M$17M
Operating Income$-9M$-17M$-14M$-19M
Net Income$-2M$-41M$-2M$-16M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.01$-0.25$-0.01$-0.10
Gross Margin49.7%49.8%59.8%57.5%
Operating Margin-20.1%-53.8%-45.0%-64.9%
Net Margin-4.2%-124.6%-5.3%-54.0%

Why This Stock

IndustrialsRevenue growth 29.2%

Tradability FilterGrade A β€” 82/100Score impact: -16.1pt

Volume
100
2.7M avg/day
Dollar Vol
67
$13M/day
Float
100
166M shares
Mkt Cap
37
$878M
Range
100
237% spread
Composite Liquidity Score82/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$4.28$12.90100.3%Wide
2022$1.57$4.88102.6%Wide
2023$2.29$8.30113.5%Wide
2024$2.01$5.7396.1%Wide
2025$2.64$8.91108.6%Wide
3-Year Range
126.4%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.15x dampening
weinstein declining

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
94.9%
Outstanding Shares
175M
Bid-Ask Spread
237.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.