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45

ICFI

๐Ÿญ Industrials

ICF International, Inc.

Conservative #751Aggressive #812Low Risk
$79.72+6.07%
Day High$79.75
Day Low$74.64
Volume0.3M
Mkt Cap$1.5B
52W Low $7252W High $102
Market Cap
$1.5B
P/E Ratio
14.7
Sector avg: 49.9
Rev Growth
2.9%
Sector avg: 19.0%
Earnings Growth
33.4%
Profit Margin
5.1%
Sector avg: -48.2%
Debt/Equity
0.61

Why This Score

ICFI scores 45.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Attractively valued at 14.7x earnings, below the market average.
  • High conviction (81/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.

Moderate penalties (-5.7 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score45.6
Fundamental Score47.4
ML Score47.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
56.6
6 Month
63.2
Primary
1 Year
66.6

Quality Assessment

D
Quality Grade
Below average quality โ€” weak profitability or high leverage

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
50
Basing
Sentiment (2.5%)
58
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
67
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
49
Grade Clow volume, low float
Base
41.6
SHAP
+2.3
Factors
+0.9
Conviction
+0.8
Final
45.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

67AVG
Value81
Quality38
Growth68
Stability71
Investment78

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)60.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)53.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)81.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-1.4% to +2.7%
Medium-term
-1.6% to +4.7%
Long-term
-1.8% to +6.6%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 47

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score67.3/100
Target Upside+34.5%
Coverage13 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score57.8/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage1 โ€” Basing
12M Momentum-0.0%
6M Momentum-0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+19.1%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.10)
Relative Strength vs Sector-12.8%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.2)
Momentum Quality-0.017
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
47%
High risk โ€” cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P41
Revenue growth vs Industrials peers
Sector PE Rank
P90
Valuation vs Industrials peers
Sector FCF Rank
P89
Free cash flow vs Industrials peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 47 relative to sector peers47/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 47th percentileP47
Blended score: 80% fundamental (47) + 20% ML (47) = 47.347.3
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 21% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade D
SHAP feature alignment: +2.3pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: +0.8pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Risk Factors
Value trap penalty: -0.7ptValue Trap
Liquidity penalty: -5.0pt (grade C)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Industrials โ€” Rank #74 of 135 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ICFI45.614.72.9%5.1%$1.5B
FER84.112.27.4%35.3%$52.6B
NDSN77.235.13.8%17.4%$16.2B
OMAB76.420.14.3%32.7%$6.1B
ODFL76.339.8-0.9%20.4%$40.8B
FAST73.142.68.7%15.3%$51.7B
CSX71.526.5-3.1%20.5%$78.9B
WWD71.347.87.3%12.4%$23.0B
LECO71.331.5-4.4%11.6%$15.6B
PCAR71.028.2-4.2%12.4%$65.1B
CTAS70.841.97.7%17.5%$80.3B
RYAAY69.913.03.8%11.6%$36.1B
CPRT69.523.09.7%33.4%$35.6B
FELE69.335.5-2.1%8.9%$4.3B
NSSC68.934.5-3.8%24.7%$1.7B
AEIS68.081.221.4%8.3%$12.3B
Sector Average45.849.919.0%-48.2%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy13 analysts
Buy: 9Hold: 4
Price Target
$103consensus
Low $90Median $103High $115
+28.6% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

ICF International, Inc. provides management, marketing, technology, and policy consulting and implementation services to government and commercial clients in the United States and internationally. It researches critical policy, industry, stakeholder issues, trends, and behaviors; measures and evaluates results and their impact; and provides strategic planning and advisory services to its clients on how to navigate societal, market, business, communication, and technology challenges. The company also identifies, defines, and implements policies, plans, programs, and business tools through a range of standard and customized methodologies for its clients; conducts survey research; collects and analyzes various data to understand critical issues and options for its clients; and provides actionable business intelligence, as well as information and data management solutions that allow integrated and purpose-driven data usage. In addition, it provides solutions to optimize the customer and citizen experience; modernizes IT systems; and cyber security solutions that support the range of cyber security missions and protect IT infrastructures in the face of relentless threats, as well as designs, develops, and implements technology systems and business tools that are principal to its clients' mission or business performance. Further, the company informs and engages its clients' constituents, customers, and employees through public relations, branding and marketing, multichannel and strategic communications, and reputation issues management. It serves energy, environment, and infrastructure; health, education, and social programs; safety and security; and consumer and financial markets. The company was formerly known as ICF Consulting Group Holdings, LLC and changed its name to ICF International, Inc. in 2006. ICF International, Inc. was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Fairfax, Virginia.

CEO
John Wasson
Employees
9,000
Beta
0.42
Industry
Consulting Services
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
34.8
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-24.1%
High: $105
From 52W Low
+10.7%
Low: $72.03
Moving Averages
10-Day
$77.00
Above
20-Day
$82.80
Below
50-Day
$87.40
Below
200-Day
$88.00
Below
60-Day Support
$72.84
60-Day Resistance
$98.03
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 1 โ€” BasingScore: 43/100

Stock is building a base after a decline. The 200-day moving average is flattening. Watch for a breakout above the 200-day SMA on increased volume.

Monitor for breakout above 200-day SMA on volume
Price vs 200 SMA
-9.4%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-0.18%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
1.26x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
15
Confidence: 70%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$444M$465M$476M$488M
Gross Profit$0$175M$178M$185M
Operating Income$29M$38M$40M$38M
Net Income$17M$24M$24M$27M
EPS (Diluted)$0.94$1.28$1.28$1.44
Gross Margin0.0%37.6%37.3%38.0%
Operating Margin6.5%8.3%8.4%7.9%
Net Margin3.9%5.1%5.0%5.5%

Why This Stock

IndustrialsP/E ratio of 14.7Valuation below sector median (P/E 14.7)

Tradability FilterGrade C โ€” 49/100Score impact: -8.8pt

Volume
31
143K avg/day
Dollar Vol
62
$11M/day
Float
44
18M shares
Mkt Cap
48
$1.5B
Range
83
46% spread
Composite Liquidity Score49/100
FDCBA
low volumelow float

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 6/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$81.17$108.2328.6%Moderate
2022$84.68$121.2835.5%Wide
2023$94.53$145.4042.4%Wide
2024$116.66$179.6742.5%Wide
2025$72.03$135.3461.1%Wide
3-Year Range
85.5%
Narrow Years
1 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
98.4%
Outstanding Shares
18M
Bid-Ask Spread
46.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.