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MOMO

๐Ÿ“ก Communication Services

Hello Group Inc.

Conservative #877Aggressive #1280Moderate RiskHigh 100
$6.52-1.51%
Day High$6.62
Day Low$6.45
Volume0.9M
Mkt Cap$1.1B
52W Low $552W High $9
Market Cap
$1.2B
P/E Ratio
10.2
Sector avg: 66.0
Rev Growth
-12.0%
Sector avg: 15.8%
Earnings Growth
-46.9%
Profit Margin
7.2%
Sector avg: -116.3%
Debt/Equity
0.01

Why This Score

MOMO scores 40.1 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Attractively valued at 10.2x earnings, below the market average.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.01) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • High conviction (100/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (13.7%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -14.1 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, MOMO would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score40.1
Fundamental Score49.2
ML Score54.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
70.2
6 Month
78.5
Primary
1 Year
82.6

Quality Assessment

C
Quality Grade
Average quality โ€” moderate profitability or leverage
Country Risk:
Score penalty of points applied for domicile risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
50
Basing
Sentiment (2.5%)
42
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
64
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
68
Grade B
Base
36.1
SHAP
+1.5
Factors
+0.7
Conviction
+1.8
Final
40.1
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

57AVG
Value88
Quality40
Growth8
Stability74
Investment75

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)43.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)49.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)64.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-1.2% to +5.3%
Medium-term
-1.5% to +8.3%
Long-term
-1.8% to +11.3%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 54

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score64.1/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage16 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score41.7/100
News Volume0 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage1 โ€” Basing
12M Momentum-0.1%
6M Momentum-0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+14.9%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.32)
Relative Strength vs Sector-7.0%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.5)
Momentum Quality-0.054
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
41%
High risk โ€” cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P3
Revenue growth vs Communication Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P78
Valuation vs Communication Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P54
Free cash flow vs Communication Services peers
Growth Deviation
-0.3ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
YES
Below-sector growth + cheap PE
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 49 relative to sector peers49/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 54th percentileP54
Blended score: 80% fundamental (49) + 20% ML (54) = 50.250.2
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 23% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade C
SHAP feature alignment: +1.5pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: +1.8pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Risk Factors
Country risk: China (12pt penalty, source: data_provider)Country
Value trap penalty: -0.1ptValue Trap
Liquidity penalty: -2.0pt (grade B)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Communication Services โ€” Rank #34 of 60 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
MOMO40.110.2-12.0%7.2%$1.2B
GOOGL83.028.315.1%32.8%$3.7T
EA79.275.1-1.3%15.0%$50.4B
MTCH75.612.83.4%15.8%$7.5B
META72.327.222.2%30.1%$1.7T
TIGO70.610.12.5%4.4%$11.6B
JOYY68.21.9-1.3%83.2%$3.3B
BZ66.921.923.6%21.5%$7.6B
NXST65.814.49.6%13.4%$7.2B
CMCSA62.65.9-0.0%16.2%$113.2B
SIRI62.59.5-1.6%9.4%$7.1B
EVER60.210.473.7%8.4%$615M
TMUS60.222.68.5%12.4%$245.5B
NWS60.212.62.4%12.2%$14.9B
NFLX59.730.415.9%24.3%$326.1B
VEON57.76.08.3%15.2%$3.9B
Sector Average44.466.015.8%-116.3%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy16 analysts
Buy: 9Hold: 7
Price Target
$8consensus
Low $8Median $8High $8
+24.2% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Hello Group Inc. provides mobile-based social and entertainment services in the People's Republic of China. It operates Momo platform that includes its Momo mobile application, as well as various related properties, features, functionalities, tools, and services. The company's Momo mobile application connects people and facilitates interactions based on location and interests; and various recreational activities, including live talent shows, short videos, and social games, as well as other video- and audio-based interactive experiences, such as online parties, mobile karaoke, and user participated reality shows. It also operates Tantan, a social and dating application, which enables users to find and establish romantic connections, and meet interesting people; and provides live video, quick chat, value-added, mobile marketing, and other services, as well as mobile games and audio chatrooms. In addition, it allows its platform's users to livestream a variety of content and activities that comprise talent shows, such as singing, dancing, and talk shows, as well as casual chatting, and other forms of interactions between broadcasters and viewers. The company was formerly known as Momo Inc. and changed its name to Hello Group Inc. in August 2021. Hello Group Inc. was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.

CEO
Yan Tang
Employees
1,390
Beta
0.46
Industry
Internet Content & Information
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
53.5
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-29.3%
High: $9.22
From 52W Low
+27.3%
Low: $5.12
Moving Averages
10-Day
$6.60
Below
20-Day
$6.60
Below
50-Day
$6.70
Below
200-Day
$7.30
Below
60-Day Support
$6.33
60-Day Resistance
$7.11
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 1 โ€” BasingScore: 36/100

Stock is building a base after a decline. The 200-day moving average is flattening. Watch for a breakout above the 200-day SMA on increased volume.

Monitor for breakout above 200-day SMA on volume
Transition signal: 1โ†’2
Price vs 200 SMA
-10.7%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+0.73%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
0.62x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
98
Confidence: 80%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$2.7B$2.6B$2.5B$2.6B
Gross Profit$992M$1.0B$952M$912M
Operating Income$345M$403M$299M$237M
Net Income$349M$-140M$358M$187M
EPS (Diluted)$2.06$-0.84$2.08$1.06
Gross Margin37.4%38.6%37.8%34.6%
Operating Margin13.0%15.4%11.9%9.0%
Net Margin13.2%-5.4%14.2%7.1%

Why This Stock

Communication ServicesP/E ratio of 10.2Valuation below sector median (P/E 10.2)

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 68/100Score impact: -23.3pt

Volume
100
1.0M avg/day
Dollar Vol
54
$7M/day
Float
40
0K shares
Mkt Cap
43
$1.2B
Range
100
80% spread
Composite Liquidity Score68/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$8.17$17.4472.4%Wide
2022$4.10$10.9591%Wide
2023$6.23$11.5459.8%Wide
2024$4.79$8.1952.4%Wide
2025$5.12$9.2257.2%Wide
3-Year Range
82.7%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.35x dampening
weinstein basingrevenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
80.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.