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65

NXST

📡 Communication Services

Nexstar Media Group, Inc.

Conservative #190Aggressive #81Low RiskHigh 100
$232.54-0.10%
Day High$233.88
Day Low$229.45
Volume0.2M
Mkt Cap$7.1B
52W Low $14252W High $254
Market Cap
$7.0B
P/E Ratio
14.4
Sector avg: 120.6
Rev Growth
9.6%
Sector avg: 15.8%
Earnings Growth
108.7%
Profit Margin
13.4%
Sector avg: -116.3%
Debt/Equity
2.89

Why This Score

NXST scores 65.2 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 32.0% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • Attractively valued at 14.4x earnings, below the market average.
  • High conviction (100/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 2.89) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Minor adjustments (-2.6 points) applied. NXST's rank of #190 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score65.2
Fundamental Score60.0
ML Score79.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
75.5
6 Month
84.4
Primary
1 Year
88.8

Quality Assessment

C
Earnings Grade
Mixed fundamentals, potential quality issues

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
67
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
72
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
76
Grade B
Base
61.8
SHAP
+1.7
Factors
+0.6
Conviction
+1.7
Divergence
-0.6
Final
65.2
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

72AVG
Value85
Quality70
Growth90
Stability35
Investment80

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)68.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)82.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)85.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+3.1% to +7.9%
Medium-term
+5.5% to +12.9%
Long-term
+8.0% to +17.9%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 79

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score71.9/100
Target Upside+9.6%
Coverage24 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score67.4/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.4%
6M Momentum+0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+27.5%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.37)
Relative Strength vs Sector+43.6%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.364
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
10%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P65
Revenue growth vs Communication Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P39
Valuation vs Communication Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P73
Free cash flow vs Communication Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 73 relative to sector peers73/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 76th percentileP76
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.7pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (72.7) + 9% ML (76.3) + SHAP(+3.7) = 76.8
Factor quality: +1.3pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 7.7%. Max drawdown 16% (-3.4 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($7.0B market cap)+0.5 pts
Conviction bonus: +3.6pt (conviction=100)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by -14 pointsGrade C
Quality concern: Earnings growth (109%) far exceeds revenue growth (9.6%) — margin expansion may not be sustainable; High leverage: D/E ratio of 2.9x — elevated balance sheet riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Communication Services — Rank #7 of 60 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
NXST65.214.49.6%13.4%$7.0B
GOOGL82.828.315.1%32.8%$3.7T
EA75.175.1-1.3%15.0%$50.2B
MTCH74.512.83.4%15.8%$7.3B
META72.027.222.2%30.1%$1.6T
TIGO69.810.12.5%4.4%$11.0B
BZ65.521.923.6%21.5%$8.1B
SIRI63.69.5-1.6%9.4%$7.2B
CMCSA63.65.9-0.0%16.2%$115.0B
JOYY60.91.9-1.3%83.2%$3.3B
EVER60.610.473.7%8.4%$566M
NFLX59.630.415.9%24.3%$326.1B
TMUS59.322.68.5%12.4%$245.5B
NWS56.712.62.4%12.2%$14.7B
WMG56.451.74.4%5.4%$15.4B
VEON56.16.08.3%15.2%$3.9B
Sector Average43.5120.615.8%-116.3%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy24 analysts
Buy: 21Hold: 3
Price Target
$250consensus
Low $250Median $250High $250
+7.5% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Nexstar Media Group, Inc., a television broadcasting and digital media company, focuses on the acquisition, development, and operation of television stations and interactive community websites and digital media services in the United States. The company offers free programming to television viewing audiences. As of December 31, 2020, it provided sales, programming, and other services through various local service agreements to 37 power television stations owned by independent third parties; and owned, operated, programmed, or provided sales and other services to 198 television stations. The company also offers video and display advertising platforms that are delivered locally or nationally through its own and various third party websites and mobile applications, as well as owns WGN America, a national general entertainment cable network. Its stations are affiliates of ABC, NBC, FOX, CBS, The CW, MyNetworkTV, and other broadcast television networks. The company was formerly known as Nexstar Broadcasting Group, Inc. and changed its name to Nexstar Media Group, Inc. in January 2017. Nexstar Media Group, Inc. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Irving, Texas.

CEO
Perry A. Sook
Employees
11,773
Beta
0.81
Industry
Entertainment
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
64.9
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-8.6%
High: $254.3
From 52W Low
+64.2%
Low: $141.66
Moving Averages
10-Day
$233.90
Below
20-Day
$226.10
Above
50-Day
$215.10
Above
200-Day
$195.60
Above
60-Day Support
$187.03
60-Day Resistance
$254.3
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 80/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+18.9%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+8.34%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.9x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$1.2B$1.2B$1.2B$1.5B
Gross Profit$446M$672M$683M$929M
Operating Income$175M$213M$220M$417M
Net Income$70M$97M$108M$242M
EPS (Diluted)$2.14$3.06$3.37$7.56
Gross Margin37.2%54.7%55.3%62.5%
Operating Margin14.6%17.3%17.8%28.0%
Net Margin5.8%7.9%8.8%16.3%

Why This Stock

Communication ServicesP/E ratio of 14.4Profit margin 13.4%Valuation below sector median (P/E 14.4)

Tradability FilterGrade B — 76/100Score impact: -14.1pt

Volume
63
326K avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$75M/day
Float
58
28M shares
Mkt Cap
72
$7.0B
Range
100
80% spread
Composite Liquidity Score76/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 28/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$130.60$171.1626.9%Moderate
2022$148.10$204.6232%Moderate
2023$132.30$217.7648.8%Wide
2024$147.25$191.8626.3%Moderate
2025$141.66$223.3644.8%Wide
3-Year Range
51.2%
Narrow Years
2 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
93.2%
Outstanding Shares
30M
Bid-Ask Spread
80.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.