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NFLX

📡 Communication Services

Netflix, Inc.

Conservative #308Aggressive #218Moderate RiskLow 39ML↑ 30pt
$82.70+5.97%
Day High$83.12
Day Low$79.36
Volume67.5M
Mkt Cap$350.4B
52W Low $7552W High $134
Market Cap
$326.1B
P/E Ratio
30.4
Sector avg: 120.6
Rev Growth
15.9%
Sector avg: 15.4%
Earnings Growth
26.1%
Profit Margin
24.3%
Sector avg: -115.9%
Debt/Equity
0.54

Why This Score

NFLX scores 59.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 41.3% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • High net margin of 24.3%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Large-cap ($326B) with deep liquidity and institutional ownership.
  • ML model assigns a high-conviction signal (92/100), indicating strong pattern recognition across 82 features.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (10.1%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-3.9 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score59.6
Fundamental Score51.3
ML Score92.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
75.0
6 Month
83.8
Primary
1 Year
88.2

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
56
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
64
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
100
Grade A
Base
59.5
SHAP
+2.3
Factors
+1.7
Divergence
-3.9
Final
59.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

75AVG
Value55
Quality85
Growth90
Stability75
Investment70

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)78.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)37.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)80.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+3.0% to +7.8%
Medium-term
+5.1% to +12.4%
Long-term
+7.8% to +17.7%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 92

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score63.9/100
Target Upside+53.8%
Coverage97 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score56.4/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.2%
6M Momentum-0.4%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+14.8%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.59)
Relative Strength vs Sector-21.6%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.1)
Momentum Quality-0.124
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P84
Revenue growth vs Communication Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P20
Valuation vs Communication Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P24
Free cash flow vs Communication Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.2σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 60 relative to sector peers60/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 90th percentileP90
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.4pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (59.5) + 9% ML (89.9) + SHAP(+2.4) = 64.6—
Factor quality: +1.7pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 10.1%. Max drawdown 43% (-12.0 pts). Price momentum -22% (-3.3 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: +5.0 points ($326.1B market cap)+5.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -1.1pt (conviction=39)—
Divergence penalty: -3.0pt (ML 30pt higher)—
Risk Factors

No risk factors identified.

Sector Peer Comparison(Communication Services — Rank #12 of 63 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
NFLX59.630.415.9%24.3%$326.1B
GOOGL82.828.315.1%32.8%$3.7T
EA75.175.1-1.3%15.0%$50.2B
MTCH74.512.83.4%15.8%$7.3B
META72.027.222.2%30.1%$1.6T
TIGO69.810.12.5%4.4%$11.0B
BZ65.521.923.6%21.5%$8.1B
NXST65.214.49.6%13.4%$7.0B
SIRI63.69.5-1.6%9.4%$7.2B
CMCSA63.65.9-0.0%16.2%$115.0B
JOYY60.91.9-1.3%83.2%$3.3B
EVER60.610.473.7%8.4%$566M
TMUS59.322.68.5%12.4%$245.5B
NWS56.712.62.4%12.2%$14.7B
WMG56.451.74.4%5.4%$15.4B
VEON56.16.08.3%15.2%$3.9B
Sector Average42.3120.615.4%-115.9%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy97 analysts
Buy: 60Hold: 31Sell: 6
Price Target
$117consensus
Low $95Median $114High $152
+41.8% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Netflix, Inc. provides entertainment services. It offers TV series, documentaries, feature films, and mobile games across various genres and languages. The company provides members the ability to receive streaming content through a host of internet-connected devices, including TVs, digital video players, television set-top boxes, and mobile devices. It also provides DVDs-by-mail membership services in the United States. The company has approximately 222 million paid members in 190 countries. Netflix, Inc. was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Los Gatos, California.

CEO
Theodore A. Sarandos
Employees
14,000
Beta
1.71
Industry
Entertainment
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
55.3
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-38.3%
High: $134.12
From 52W Low
+10.3%
Low: $75.01
Moving Averages
10-Day
$78.00
Above
20-Day
$80.00
Above
50-Day
$86.50
Below
200-Day
$110.40
Below
60-Day Support
$75.01
60-Day Resistance
$109.73
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 16/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-25.1%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-2.65%
Falling
Volume Ratio
0.94x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
66
Confidence: 90%
Recent Gap Up

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$12.1B$11.5B$11.1B$10.5B
Gross Profit$5.5B$5.3B$5.8B$5.3B
Operating Income$3.0B$3.2B$3.8B$3.3B
Net Income$2.4B$2.5B$3.1B$2.9B
EPS (Diluted)$0.56$0.59$0.72$0.66
Gross Margin45.9%46.4%51.9%50.1%
Operating Margin24.5%28.2%34.1%31.7%
Net Margin20.1%22.1%28.2%27.4%

Why This Stock

Communication ServicesRevenue growth 15.9%Profit margin 24.3%Earnings quality grade A

Tradability FilterGrade A — 100/100Score impact: -6.6pt

Volume
100
47.0M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$3.6B/day
Float
100
4.2B shares
Mkt Cap
100
$326.1B
Range
99
79% spread
Composite Liquidity Score100/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$47.85$70.1037.7%Wide
2022$16.27$61.00115.8%Wide
2023$28.53$50.0954.8%Wide
2024$46.19$94.1868.4%Wide
2025$82.11$134.1248.1%Wide
3-Year Range
129.8%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
99.0%
Outstanding Shares
4.2B
Bid-Ask Spread
79.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.