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45

CRTO

📡 Communication Services

Criteo S.A.

Conservative #697Aggressive #1010Moderate RiskHigh 100
$17.80+1.60%
Day High$17.85
Day Low$17.39
Volume0.2M
Mkt Cap$911M
52W Low $1652W High $42
Market Cap
$896M
P/E Ratio
6.3
Sector avg: 120.6
Rev Growth
0.6%
Sector avg: 15.8%
Earnings Growth
29.6%
Profit Margin
7.4%
Sector avg: -116.3%
Debt/Equity
0.13

Why This Score

CRTO scores 45.3 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Attractively valued at 6.3x earnings, below the market average.
  • High conviction (100/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.

Moderate penalties (-3.5 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score45.3
Fundamental Score49.7
ML Score25.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
73.7
6 Month
82.3
Primary
1 Year
86.7

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
56
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
65
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
71
Grade B
Base
42.8
SHAP
+1.4
Factors
+0.8
Conviction
+1.7
Divergence
-1.5
Final
45.3
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)66.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)31.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)80.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+3.9% to +8.9%
Medium-term
+6.5% to +14.1%
Long-term
+10.2% to +20.5%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 25

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score65.2/100
Target Upside+86.8%
Coverage33 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score56.1/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.5%
6M Momentum-0.3%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-25.8%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.52)
Relative Strength vs Sector-54.1%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality-0.272
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
30%
Moderate — watch growth
Sector RevGr Rank
P39
Revenue growth vs Communication Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P61
Valuation vs Communication Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P79
Free cash flow vs Communication Services peers
Growth Deviation
-0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 91 relative to sector peers91/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 88th percentileP88
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.0pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (91.3) + 9% ML (87.9) + SHAP(+3.0) = 94.0
Factor quality: +1.7pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 7.7%. Max drawdown 50% (-12.0 pts). Price momentum -54% (-9.8 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($0.9B market cap)-15.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +3.6pt (conviction=100)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-108.4%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Communication Services — Rank #28 of 60 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
CRTO45.36.30.6%7.4%$896M
GOOGL82.828.315.1%32.8%$3.7T
EA75.175.1-1.3%15.0%$50.2B
MTCH74.512.83.4%15.8%$7.3B
META72.027.222.2%30.1%$1.6T
TIGO69.810.12.5%4.4%$11.0B
BZ65.521.923.6%21.5%$8.1B
NXST65.214.49.6%13.4%$7.0B
SIRI63.69.5-1.6%9.4%$7.2B
CMCSA63.65.9-0.0%16.2%$115.0B
JOYY60.91.9-1.3%83.2%$3.3B
EVER60.610.473.7%8.4%$566M
NFLX59.630.415.9%24.3%$326.1B
TMUS59.322.68.5%12.4%$245.5B
NWS56.712.62.4%12.2%$14.7B
WMG56.451.74.4%5.4%$15.4B
Sector Average43.5120.615.8%-116.3%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy33 analysts
Buy: 21Hold: 11Sell: 1
Price Target
$31consensus
Low $18Median $32High $43
+75.6% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Criteo S.A., a technology company, provides marketing and monetization services on the open Internet in North and South America, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. The company's Criteo Shopper Graph, which derives clients' proprietary commerce data, such as transaction activity on their digital properties. Its Criteo AI Engine solutions include lookalike finder, recommendation, and predictive bidding algorithms; bidding engine that executes campaigns based on certain objectives set by its clients; dynamic creative optimization+, which assembles customized creative advertising content by optimizing each individual creative component in the advertisement; software systems and processes, which enable data synchronization, storage, and analysis of distributed computing infrastructure in various geographies; and experimentation platform, an offline/online testing platform to enhance the capabilities and effectiveness of prediction models. The company also provides Criteo Marketing Solutions that allow commerce companies to address various marketing goals by engaging their consumers with personalized ads across the web, mobile, and offline store environments; and Criteo Retail Media solutions, which allows retailers to generate advertising revenues from consumer brands, and/or to drive sales for themselves, by monetizing their data and audiences through personalized ads, either on their own digital property or on the open Internet. In addition, it offers real-time access to advertising inventory through its publisher partners; consulting services to companies in distance sales; and business intelligence and analytics services. It serves companies in digital retail, travel, and classifieds industries. Criteo S.A. was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Paris, France.

CEO
Michael Komasinski
Employees
3,507
Beta
0.37
Industry
Advertising Agencies
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
44.4
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-56.2%
High: $40.65
From 52W Low
+10.2%
Low: $16.15
Moving Averages
10-Day
$17.60
Above
20-Day
$18.40
Below
50-Day
$19.50
Below
200-Day
$22.20
Below
60-Day Support
$16.15
60-Day Resistance
$21.55
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 10/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-19.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-17.22%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.07x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$541M$470M$483M$451M
Gross Profit$297M$256M$259M$237M
Operating Income$72M$52M$30M$48M
Net Income$48M$38M$21M$38M
EPS (Diluted)$0.90$0.70$0.39$0.66
Gross Margin55.0%54.6%53.6%52.5%
Operating Margin13.4%11.0%6.3%10.7%
Net Margin8.8%8.0%4.4%8.4%

Why This Stock

Communication ServicesP/E ratio of 6.3Valuation below sector median (P/E 6.3)

Tradability FilterGrade B — 71/100Score impact: -8.0pt

Volume
83
571K avg/day
Dollar Vol
59
$10M/day
Float
80
50M shares
Mkt Cap
37
$896M
Range
100
159% spread
Composite Liquidity Score71/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$29.30$46.6545.7%Wide
2022$20.56$39.4062.8%Wide
2023$22.10$36.7649.8%Wide
2024$23.87$49.9370.6%Wide
2025$19.00$47.2785.3%Wide
3-Year Range
89.7%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
98.3%
Outstanding Shares
51M
Bid-Ask Spread
159.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.