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SIRI

๐Ÿ“ก Communication Services

SiriusXM Holdings Inc.

Conservative #227Aggressive #267Low RiskModerate 70
$20.92-0.24%
Day High$21.01
Day Low$20.81
Volume2.3M
Mkt Cap$7.0B
52W Low $1952W High $26
Market Cap
$7.2B
P/E Ratio
9.5
Sector avg: 120.6
Rev Growth
-1.6%
Sector avg: 15.4%
Earnings Growth
148.3%
Profit Margin
9.4%
Sector avg: -115.9%
Debt/Equity
0.84

Why This Score

SIRI scores 63.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Attractively valued at 9.5x earnings, below the market average.
  • Low volatility (6.0% annualized) โ€” well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.

Minor adjustments (-1.5 points) applied. SIRI's rank of #227 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score63.6
Fundamental Score56.1
ML Score81.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
83.8
6 Month
93.6
Primary
1 Year
98.6

Quality Assessment

D
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
44
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
61
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
93
Grade A
Base
61.1
SHAP
+3.0
Factors
+1.0
Divergence
-1.5
Final
63.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

79AVG
Value95
Quality70
Growth90
Stability60
Investment80

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)61.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)60.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)76.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+3.5% to +11.2%
Medium-term
+5.1% to +16.5%
Long-term
+7.9% to +23.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 81

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score60.9/100
Target Upside+7.5%
Coverage32 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score43.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum-0.1%
6M Momentum-0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+0.0%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (1.00)
Relative Strength vs Sector-6.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (1.1)
Momentum Quality-0.056
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
39%
High risk โ€” cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P18
Revenue growth vs Communication Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P54
Valuation vs Communication Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P86
Free cash flow vs Communication Services peers
Growth Deviation
-0.1ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
YES
Below-sector growth + cheap PE
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 81 relative to sector peers81/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 93th percentileP93
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +5.0pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (80.9) + 9% ML (93.4) + SHAP(+5.0) = 87.0โ€”
Factor quality: +1.6pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 6.0%. Stability bonus of +10.0 points. Max drawdown 13% (-2.1 pts). Price momentum -6% (-0.3 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($7.2B market cap)+0.5 pts
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by -23 pointsGrade D
Quality concern: Earnings growth (148%) far exceeds revenue growth (-1.6%) โ€” margin expansion may not be sustainable; Earnings/revenue growth ratio of Infinityx โ€” earnings quality suspectFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Communication Services โ€” Rank #8 of 63 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
SIRI63.69.5-1.6%9.4%$7.2B
GOOGL82.828.315.1%32.8%$3.7T
EA75.175.1-1.3%15.0%$50.2B
MTCH74.512.83.4%15.8%$7.3B
META72.027.222.2%30.1%$1.6T
TIGO69.810.12.5%4.4%$11.0B
BZ65.521.923.6%21.5%$8.1B
NXST65.214.49.6%13.4%$7.0B
CMCSA63.65.9-0.0%16.2%$115.0B
JOYY60.91.9-1.3%83.2%$3.3B
EVER60.610.473.7%8.4%$566M
NFLX59.630.415.9%24.3%$326.1B
TMUS59.322.68.5%12.4%$245.5B
NWS56.712.62.4%12.2%$14.7B
WMG56.451.74.4%5.4%$15.4B
VEON56.16.08.3%15.2%$3.9B
Sector Average42.3120.615.4%-115.9%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy32 analysts
Strong Buy: 1Buy: 17Hold: 9Sell: 5
Price Target
$23consensus
Low $21Median $23High $24
+7.6% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Sirius XM Holdings Inc. provides satellite radio services on a subscription fee basis in the United States. It broadcasts music, sports, entertainment, comedy, talk, news, traffic, and weather channels, including various music genres, such as rock, pop and hip-hop, country, dance, jazz, Latin, and classical; live play-by-play sports from various leagues and colleges; various talk and entertainment channels for a range of audiences; national, international, and financial news; and limited run channels. The company also provides streaming service that includes a range of music and non-music channels, and podcasts, as well as channels that are not available on its satellite radio service; and offers applications to allow consumers to access its streaming service on smartphones, tablets, computers, home devices, and other consumer electronic equipment, as well as connected vehicle services. In addition, it distributes satellite radios through automakers and retailers, as well as its website. Further, the company provides location-based services through two-way wireless connectivity, including safety, security, convenience, remote vehicles diagnostic, maintenance and data, and stolen or parked vehicle locator services. Additionally, it offers satellite television services, which offer music channels on the DISH Network satellite television service as a programming package; Travel Link, a suite of data services that include graphical weather, fuel prices, sports schedule and scores, and movie listings; and real-time traffic and weather services. The company was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in New York, New York. Sirius XM Holdings Inc. is a subsidiary of Liberty Media Corporation.

CEO
Jennifer C. Witz
Employees
5,515
Beta
0.95
Industry
Entertainment
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
51.7
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-17.5%
High: $25.36
From 52W Low
+11.9%
Low: $18.69
Moving Averages
10-Day
$21.20
Below
20-Day
$21.00
Below
50-Day
$20.90
Above
200-Day
$22.00
Below
60-Day Support
$19.77
60-Day Resistance
$23.57
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 23/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-4.9%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-2.08%
Falling
Volume Ratio
0.77x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
13
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$2.2B$2.2B$2.1B$2.1B
Gross Profit$1.1B$1.0B$1.0B$964M
Operating Income$226M$493M$365M$387M
Net Income$99M$297M$205M$204M
EPS (Diluted)$0.28$0.84$0.57$0.59
Gross Margin48.0%46.8%46.8%46.6%
Operating Margin10.3%22.8%17.1%18.7%
Net Margin4.5%13.8%9.6%9.9%

Why This Stock

Communication ServicesP/E ratio of 9.5Valuation below sector median (P/E 9.5)

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 93/100Score impact: -5.4pt

Volume
100
4.8M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$101M/day
Float
100
305M shares
Mkt Cap
73
$7.2B
Range
69
37% spread
Composite Liquidity Score93/100
FDCBA

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.49x dampening
weinstein basingslight revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
90.5%
Outstanding Shares
337M
Bid-Ask Spread
37.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.