Back to Dashboard
23

LWAY

๐Ÿ›’ Consumer Defensive

Lifeway Foods, Inc.

Conservative #1211Aggressive #1390Moderate Risk
$22.16-0.58%
Day High$22.84
Day Low$21.95
Volume0.0M
Mkt Cap$337M
52W Low $2052W High $34
Market Cap
$345M
P/E Ratio
30.0
Sector avg: 33.1
Rev Growth
16.7%
Sector avg: 10.6%
Earnings Growth
-20.6%
Profit Margin
5.5%
Sector avg: -3.2%
Debt/Equity
0.00

Why This Score

LWAY scores 24.0 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.00) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • High conviction (71/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 25-point penalty for execution risk.

Net penalties of -25.8 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, LWAY would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score24.0
Fundamental Score52.3
ML Score32.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
42.4
6 Month
47.4
Primary
1 Year
49.9

Quality Assessment

C
Quality Grade
Average quality โ€” moderate profitability or leverage

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
50
Basing
Sentiment (2.5%)
69
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
67
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
14
Grade Flow volume, low dollar volume
Base
23.2
SHAP
+1.1
Factors
+0.5
Divergence
-0.8
Final
24.0
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

57AVG
Value57
Quality48
Growth41
Stability75
Investment64

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)50.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)44.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)84.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-7.1% to -0.2%
Medium-term
-10.6% to -0.3%
Long-term
-14.1% to -0.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 32

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score66.7/100
Target Upside+61.3%
Coverage6 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score69.4/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage1 โ€” Basing
12M Momentum+0.0%
6M Momentum-0.3%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+31.8%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.14)
Relative Strength vs Sector-5.4%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.4)
Momentum Quality+0.028
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P87
Revenue growth vs Consumer Defensive peers
Sector PE Rank
P22
Valuation vs Consumer Defensive peers
Sector FCF Rank
P11
Free cash flow vs Consumer Defensive peers
Growth Deviation
+0.4ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 52 relative to sector peers52/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 32th percentileP32
Blended score: 80% fundamental (52) + 20% ML (32) = 48.248.2
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 28% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade C
SHAP feature alignment: +1.1pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Divergence penalty: -0.8pt (ML 20pt lower)Divergence
Risk Factors
Liquidity penalty: -25.0pt (grade F)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Defensive โ€” Rank #52 of 55 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
LWAY24.030.016.7%5.5%$345M
MNST84.446.34.9%20.1%$84.6B
COCO77.443.118.2%11.7%$3.3B
CALM76.73.583.2%27.4%$4.1B
LAUR76.325.85.5%18.9%$4.9B
WMT71.546.75.1%2.9%$1.0T
CCEP68.925.111.7%6.9%$49.7B
PSMT66.531.57.2%2.7%$4.8B
COST66.254.68.2%2.9%$441.9B
PEP65.127.62.3%8.8%$230.9B
COKE64.623.13.7%9.2%$16.7B
PRDO64.013.124.2%18.9%$2.2B
SFD63.811.3-3.4%5.5%$9.6B
OLLI62.531.48.0%8.8%$6.7B
FIZZ61.218.60.8%15.6%$3.5B
DLTR61.023.94.8%5.9%$25.7B
Sector Average51.133.110.6%-3.2%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Lifeway Foods, Inc. produces and markets probiotic-based products in the United States and internationally. Its primary product is drinkable kefir, a cultured dairy product in various organic and non-organic sizes, flavors, and types, including low fat, non-fat, whole milk, protein, and BioKefir. The company also offers European-style soft cheeses; cream and other products; ProBugs, a line of kefir products designed for children; cupped kefir and Icelandic Skyr, a line of strained kefir and yogurt products; and frozen kefir in soft serve and pint-size containers. It sells its products under the Lifeway and Fresh Made brand names, as well as under private labels on behalf of customers primarily through direct sales force, brokers, and distributors. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Morton Grove, Illinois.

CEO
Julie Smolyansky
Employees
291
Beta
0.11
Industry
Packaged Foods
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
59.1
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-35.2%
High: $34.2
From 52W Low
+13.6%
Low: $19.5
Moving Averages
10-Day
$22.00
Above
20-Day
$21.90
Above
50-Day
$22.50
Below
200-Day
$25.10
Below
60-Day Support
$21.25
60-Day Resistance
$25.66
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 1 โ€” BasingScore: 41/100

Stock is building a base after a decline. The 200-day moving average is flattening. Watch for a breakout above the 200-day SMA on increased volume.

Monitor for breakout above 200-day SMA on volume
Price vs 200 SMA
-11.7%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-0.32%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
0.64x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
77
Confidence: 70%

Entry & Exit Zones

Below Entry Zone
$19.99
Stop Entry Now Target
$35.23
Entry Zone
$24.60 โ€“ $25.60
Near SMA200 base ($24.6โ€“$25.6)
Exit Target
$34.20
Prior high / breakout target ($34.2)
Stop Level
$20.61
60-day low ($20.61)
Risk / Reward:1 : 2.03Acceptable

Stage 1 base-building โ€” stock is consolidating above long-term support. Entry near SMA200 offers a defined risk level. Wait for volume confirmation before sizing up.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$57M$54M$46M$47M
Gross Profit$17M$15M$11M$12M
Operating Income$5M$6M$2M$713,000
Net Income$4M$4M$4M$-160,000
EPS (Diluted)$0.23$0.28$0.24$-0.01
Gross Margin30.3%28.6%23.9%25.3%
Operating Margin8.8%10.8%3.4%1.5%
Net Margin6.2%7.9%7.7%-0.3%

Why This Stock

Consumer DefensiveRevenue growth 16.7%Valuation below sector median (P/E 30.0)

Tradability FilterGrade F โ€” 14/100Score impact: -14.6pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor โ€” it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
3
60K avg/day
Dollar Vol
4
$1M/day
Float
2
6M shares
Mkt Cap
13
$345M
Range
98
75% spread
Composite Liquidity Score14/100
FDCBA
low volumelow dollar volumelow floatsmall cap

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$4.51$7.2045.9%Wide
2022$4.55$9.0065.7%Wide
2023$5.26$17.33106.9%Wide
2024$9.93$28.6196.9%Wide
2025$19.50$34.2054.7%Wide
3-Year Range
146.7%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.15x dampening
weinstein declining

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
36.3%
Outstanding Shares
15M
Bid-Ask Spread
75.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.