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JBSS

๐Ÿ›’ Consumer Defensive

John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc.

Conservative #481Aggressive #704Low Risk
$82.61+1.99%
Day High$83.14
Day Low$80.53
Volume0.0M
Mkt Cap$967M
52W Low $5852W High $85
Market Cap
$965M
P/E Ratio
13.8
Sector avg: 33.1
Rev Growth
3.8%
Sector avg: 10.6%
Earnings Growth
-2.2%
Profit Margin
6.2%
Sector avg: -3.2%
Debt/Equity
0.18

Why This Score

JBSS scores 55.0 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 19.5% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • Attractively valued at 13.8x earnings, below the market average.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (18%) โ€” steady appreciation without overheating.
  • High conviction (100/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 15-point penalty for execution risk.

Net penalties of -15.3 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, JBSS would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score55.0
Fundamental Score62.9
ML Score80.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
76.4
6 Month
85.4
Primary
1 Year
89.9

Quality Assessment

C
Quality Grade
Average quality โ€” moderate profitability or leverage

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
55
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
31
Grade Dlow volume, low dollar volume
Base
51.3
SHAP
+1.8
Factors
+0.7
Conviction
+1.5
Divergence
-0.3
Final
55.0
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

68AVG
Value77
Quality54
Growth42
Stability84
Investment81

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)59.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)81.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)70.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+5.3% to +10.5%
Medium-term
+8.9% to +16.8%
Long-term
+13.4% to +24.2%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 80

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage2 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score55.4/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.2%
6M Momentum+0.3%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-10.5%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.63)
Relative Strength vs Sector+8.4%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.5)
Momentum Quality+0.156
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
13%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P40
Revenue growth vs Consumer Defensive peers
Sector PE Rank
P78
Valuation vs Consumer Defensive peers
Sector FCF Rank
P27
Free cash flow vs Consumer Defensive peers
Growth Deviation
-0.1ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 63 relative to sector peers63/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 80th percentileP80
Blended score: 80% fundamental (63) + 20% ML (80) = 66.366.3
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 12% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade C
SHAP feature alignment: +1.8pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: +1.5pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Divergence penalty: -0.3pt (ML 17pt higher)Divergence
Risk Factors
Liquidity penalty: -15.0pt (grade D)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Defensive โ€” Rank #23 of 55 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
JBSS55.013.83.8%6.2%$965M
MNST84.446.34.9%20.1%$84.6B
COCO77.443.118.2%11.7%$3.3B
CALM76.73.583.2%27.4%$4.1B
LAUR76.325.85.5%18.9%$4.9B
WMT71.546.75.1%2.9%$1.0T
CCEP68.925.111.7%6.9%$49.7B
PSMT66.531.57.2%2.7%$4.8B
COST66.254.68.2%2.9%$441.9B
PEP65.127.62.3%8.8%$230.9B
COKE64.623.13.7%9.2%$16.7B
PRDO64.013.124.2%18.9%$2.2B
SFD63.811.3-3.4%5.5%$9.6B
OLLI62.531.48.0%8.8%$6.7B
FIZZ61.218.60.8%15.6%$3.5B
DLTR61.023.94.8%5.9%$25.7B
Sector Average51.133.110.6%-3.2%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc., through its subsidiary, JBSS Ventures, LLC, processes and distributes tree nuts and peanuts in the United States. The company offers raw and processed nuts, including almonds, pecans, peanuts, black walnuts, English walnuts, cashews, macadamia nuts, pistachios, pine nuts, Brazil nuts, and filberts in various styles and seasonings. It also offers peanut butter in various sizes and varieties; snack and trail mixes, salad toppings, snacks, snack bites, dried fruit, and chocolate and yogurt coated products; baking ingredients; bulk food products; sunflower kernels, pepitas, almond and cashew butter, candy and confections, corn snacks, chickpea snacks, sesame sticks, and other sesame snack products; and various toppings for ice cream and yogurt. In addition, the company operates a retail store. The company provides its products under the Fisher, Orchard Valley Harvest, Squirrel Brand, and Southern Style Nuts brands, as well as under various private brands. It serves retailers and wholesalers, and commercial ingredient and contract packaging customers through a network of independent brokers, distributors, and suppliers. John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. was founded in 1922 and is headquartered in Elgin, Illinois.

CEO
Jeffrey T. Sanfilippo
Employees
1,800
Beta
0.37
Industry
Packaged Foods
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
68.3
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-3%
High: $85.15
From 52W Low
+41.3%
Low: $58.47
Moving Averages
10-Day
$81.90
Above
20-Day
$80.60
Above
50-Day
$76.00
Above
200-Day
$67.80
Above
60-Day Support
$68.88
60-Day Resistance
$85.15
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 74/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+21.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+3.03%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.25x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
79
Confidence: 90%

Entry & Exit Zones

Above Entry Zone
$64.45
Stop Entry Now Target
$96.46
Entry Zone
$75.24 โ€“ $78.28
SMA50 pullback zone ($75.24โ€“$78.28)
Exit Target
$93.65
52-week high / +22% target ($93.65)
Stop Level
$66.44
Below SMA200 ($66.44)
Risk / Reward:1 : 1.64Tight

Stage 2 uptrend โ€” institutional accumulation phase. SMA50 pullbacks are the highest-probability entry points. Stop below SMA200 preserves capital if trend breaks.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2025Q3 2025
Revenue$315M$299M$269M$261M
Gross Profit$59M$54M$49M$56M
Operating Income$26M$27M$20M$28M
Net Income$18M$19M$14M$20M
EPS (Diluted)$1.53$1.60$1.15$1.72
Gross Margin18.8%18.1%18.1%21.4%
Operating Margin8.3%9.0%7.5%10.8%
Net Margin5.7%6.3%5.0%7.7%

Why This Stock

Consumer DefensiveP/E ratio of 13.8Valuation below sector median (P/E 13.8)

Tradability FilterGrade D โ€” 31/100Score impact: -23.6pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor โ€” it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
3
58K avg/day
Dollar Vol
48
$5M/day
Float
22
11M shares
Mkt Cap
39
$965M
Range
83
46% spread
Composite Liquidity Score31/100
FDCBA
low volumelow dollar volumelow float

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 8/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$79.62$94.9717.6%Narrow
2022$67.02$92.1031.5%Moderate
2023$76.49$127.2649.8%Wide
2024$79.07$108.9631.8%Moderate
2025$58.47$91.2643.8%Wide
3-Year Range
74.1%
Narrow Years
1 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
97.8%
Outstanding Shares
12M
Bid-Ask Spread
46.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.