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AFYA

๐Ÿ›’ Consumer Defensive

Afya Limited

Conservative #694Aggressive #632Moderate Risk
$13.60+0.37%
Day High$13.62
Day Low$13.31
Volume0.1M
Mkt Cap$1.2B
52W Low $1352W High $20
Market Cap
$1.2B
P/E Ratio
9.1
Sector avg: 33.1
Rev Growth
14.9%
Sector avg: 10.6%
Earnings Growth
63.5%
Profit Margin
20.1%
Sector avg: -3.2%
Debt/Equity
0.63

Why This Score

AFYA scores 47.2 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 16.2% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • High net margin of 20.1%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 9.1x earnings, below the market average.
  • High conviction (89/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 15-point penalty for execution risk.

Net penalties of -15.0 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, AFYA would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score47.2
Fundamental Score56.3
ML Score66.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
75.9
6 Month
84.8
Primary
1 Year
89.3

Quality Assessment

B
Quality Grade
Good quality โ€” solid metrics, minor concerns possible

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
43
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
59
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
34
Grade Dlow volume, low dollar volume
Base
43.2
SHAP
+2.0
Factors
+0.8
Conviction
+1.2
Final
47.2
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

74AVG
Value86
Quality63
Growth85
Stability68
Investment68

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)79.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)51.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)76.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+1.4% to +6.0%
Medium-term
+2.8% to +9.8%
Long-term
+4.2% to +13.5%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 66

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score59.4/100
Target Upside+17.0%
Coverage8 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score43.3/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum-0.1%
6M Momentum-0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-7.7%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.49)
Relative Strength vs Sector-24.3%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (1.7)
Momentum Quality-0.108
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
17%
Moderate โ€” watch growth
Sector RevGr Rank
P82
Revenue growth vs Consumer Defensive peers
Sector PE Rank
P95
Valuation vs Consumer Defensive peers
Sector FCF Rank
P96
Free cash flow vs Consumer Defensive peers
Growth Deviation
+0.4ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 56 relative to sector peers56/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 66th percentileP66
Blended score: 80% fundamental (56) + 20% ML (66) = 58.258.2
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 28% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade B
SHAP feature alignment: +2.0pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: +1.2pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Risk Factors
Liquidity penalty: -15.0pt (grade D)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Defensive โ€” Rank #38 of 55 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
AFYA47.29.114.9%20.1%$1.2B
MNST84.446.34.9%20.1%$84.6B
COCO77.443.118.2%11.7%$3.3B
CALM76.73.583.2%27.4%$4.1B
LAUR76.325.85.5%18.9%$4.9B
WMT71.546.75.1%2.9%$1.0T
CCEP68.925.111.7%6.9%$49.7B
PSMT66.531.57.2%2.7%$4.8B
COST66.254.68.2%2.9%$441.9B
PEP65.127.62.3%8.8%$230.9B
COKE64.623.13.7%9.2%$16.7B
PRDO64.013.124.2%18.9%$2.2B
SFD63.811.3-3.4%5.5%$9.6B
OLLI62.531.48.0%8.8%$6.7B
FIZZ61.218.60.8%15.6%$3.5B
DLTR61.023.94.8%5.9%$25.7B
Sector Average51.133.110.6%-3.2%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold8 analysts
Buy: 3Hold: 4Sell: 1
Price Target
$16consensus
Low $16Median $16High $17
+20.1% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Afya Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates as a medical education group in Brazil. It offers educational products and services, including medical schools, medical residency preparatory courses, graduate courses, and other programs to lifelong medical learners enrolled across its distribution network, as well as to third-party medical schools. The company also provides digital health services, such as subscription-based mobile app and website portal that focuses on assisting health professionals and students with clinical decision-making through tools, such as medical calculators, charts, and updated content, as well as prescriptions, clinical scores, medical procedures and laboratory exams, and others. It offers health sciences courses, which comprise medicine, dentistry, nursing, radiology, psychology, pharmacy, physical education, physiotherapy, nutrition, and biomedicine; and degree programs and courses in other subjects and disciplines, including undergraduate and post graduate courses in business administration, accounting, law, civil engineering, industrial engineering, and pedagogy. In addition, the company provides medical postgraduate specialization programs; printed and digital content; and an online medical education platform and practical medical training services. As of December 31, 2021, it operated a network of 46 undergraduate and graduate medical school campuses consisted of 30 undergrad operating units and five approved units; and a network of 2,731 medical school seats that consisted of 2,481 operating seats and 278 approved seats. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Nova Lima, Brazil.

CEO
Virgilio Deloy Capobianco Gibbon
Employees
5,260
Beta
0.51
Industry
Education & Training Services
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
16.2
Oversold
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-31.7%
High: $19.9
From 52W Low
+3.7%
Low: $13.12
Moving Averages
10-Day
$13.90
Below
20-Day
$14.50
Below
50-Day
$14.70
Below
200-Day
$15.50
Below
60-Day Support
$13.12
60-Day Resistance
$15.89
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 17/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-12.3%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-5.8%
Falling
Volume Ratio
0.77x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Entry & Exit Zones

Avoid
No Entry
โ€”
No entry โ€” active downtrend
Exit Target
โ€”
Exit position if held
Stop Level
โ€”
No stop โ€” exit recommended

Stage 4 downtrend โ€” price is below both SMA50 and SMA200 with a declining 200-day average. Capital preservation takes priority. Do not buy into a downtrend.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$929M$919M$936M$849M
Gross Profit$589M$577M$654M$542M
Operating Income$277M$285M$373M$258M
Net Income$155M$172M$252M$150M
EPS (Diluted)$1.70$1.88$2.76$1.65
Gross Margin63.4%62.7%69.8%63.8%
Operating Margin29.9%31.0%39.8%30.4%
Net Margin16.7%18.7%26.9%17.7%

Why This Stock

Consumer DefensiveP/E ratio of 9.1Revenue growth 14.9%Profit margin 20.1%Valuation below sector median (P/E 9.1)

Tradability FilterGrade D โ€” 34/100Score impact: -14.8pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor โ€” it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
20
109K avg/day
Dollar Vol
7
$2M/day
Float
55
25M shares
Mkt Cap
45
$1.2B
Range
86
52% spread
Composite Liquidity Score34/100
FDCBA
low volumelow dollar volume

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$12.62$28.2376.4%Wide
2022$8.73$17.0264.4%Wide
2023$9.66$22.4179.5%Wide
2024$14.52$22.4843%Wide
2025$13.47$19.9038.5%Wide
3-Year Range
79.8%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
27.1%
Outstanding Shares
90M
Bid-Ask Spread
52.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.