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49

GSHD

๐Ÿฆ Financial Services

Goosehead Insurance, Inc

Conservative #656Aggressive #1086Moderate RiskMLโ†‘ 51pt
$54.20+0.44%
Day High$54.89
Day Low$53.51
Volume0.5M
Mkt Cap$2.1B
52W Low $4352W High $128
Market Cap
$2.1B
P/E Ratio
39.5
Sector avg: 26.8
Rev Growth
16.2%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
-8.5%
Profit Margin
7.6%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
N/A

Why This Score

GSHD scores 48.5 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E -0.37) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.

Minor adjustments (-2.0 points) applied. GSHD's rank of #656 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score48.5
Fundamental Score49.5
ML Score35.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
80.8
6 Month
90.3
Primary
1 Year
95.1

Quality Assessment

D
Quality Grade
Below average quality โ€” weak profitability or high leverage

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
56
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
64
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
68
Grade B
Base
44.5
SHAP
+2.2
Factors
+1.8
Final
48.5
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

46AVG
Value40.723
Quality35
Growth50
Stability47
Investment59

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)48.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)28.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)80.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+10.1% to +16.1%
Medium-term
+14.7% to +23.6%
Long-term
+21.2% to +33.3%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 35

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score63.9/100
Target Upside+81.7%
Coverage18 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score55.6/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum-0.6%
6M Momentum-0.4%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-18.0%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.70)
Relative Strength vs Sector-69.4%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality-0.249
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P76
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P12
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P36
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.2ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 50 relative to sector peers50/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 35th percentileP35
Blended score: 80% fundamental (50) + 20% ML (35) = 46.646.6
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 59% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade D
SHAP feature alignment: +2.2pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Risk Factors
Liquidity penalty: -2.0pt (grade B)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services โ€” Rank #195 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
GSHD48.539.516.2%7.6%$2.1B
CME86.427.29.9%57.5%$114.0B
FHB84.911.83.2%24.2%$3.1B
ACT84.58.92.4%54.6%$6.1B
CINF84.210.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
SEIC82.214.010.7%27.3%$9.9B
TROW79.910.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
QQQX79.710.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
IBOC78.210.67.5%40.1%$4.2B
HWC77.812.2-1.5%24.1%$5.6B
FFIN77.518.811.7%30.7%$4.7B
TRMK77.111.934.8%19.3%$2.6B
NMIH77.17.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
EWBC76.712.74.6%28.3%$15.3B
WSFS76.312.8-3.1%21.1%$3.5B
MCHB76.1N/A123.7%23.2%$3.1B
Sector Average47.526.813.4%-2.8%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Goosehead Insurance, Inc. operates as a holding company for Goosehead Financial, LLC that provides personal lines insurance agency services in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Corporate Channel and Franchise Channel. It offers homeowner's, insurance, automotive, dwelling property insurance, flood, wind, earthquake, excess liability or umbrella, motorcycle, recreational vehicle, general liability, property, and life insurance products and services. As of December 31, 2021, the company had 2,151 total franchises. Goosehead Insurance, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Westlake, Texas.

CEO
Mark K. Miller
Employees
1,580
Beta
1.54
Industry
Insurance - Diversified
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
35.9
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-57.7%
High: $127.99
From 52W Low
+26.4%
Low: $42.87
Moving Averages
10-Day
$49.00
Above
20-Day
$53.80
Above
50-Day
$64.50
Below
200-Day
$80.60
Below
60-Day Support
$42.87
60-Day Resistance
$79.85
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 10/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-32.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-14.35%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.95x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Entry & Exit Zones

Avoid
No Entry
โ€”
No entry โ€” active downtrend
Exit Target
โ€”
Exit position if held
Stop Level
โ€”
No stop โ€” exit recommended

Stage 4 downtrend โ€” price is below both SMA50 and SMA200 with a declining 200-day average. Capital preservation takes priority. Do not buy into a downtrend.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$105M$90M$94M$76M
Gross Profit$56M$42M$94M$27M
Operating Income$31M$21M$10M$7M
Net Income$12M$8M$5M$2M
EPS (Diluted)$0.48$0.29$0.18$0.06
Gross Margin53.5%46.1%100.0%36.1%
Operating Margin29.4%23.5%10.8%8.8%
Net Margin11.8%8.7%5.5%3.1%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesRevenue growth 16.2%

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 68/100Score impact: +14.4pt

Volume
69
390K avg/day
Dollar Vol
76
$18M/day
Float
53
23M shares
Mkt Cap
55
$2.1B
Range
100
199% spread
Composite Liquidity Score68/100
FDCBA

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
90.7%
Outstanding Shares
25M
Bid-Ask Spread
199.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.