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GBDC

🏦 Financial Services

Golub Capital BDC, Inc.

Conservative #428Aggressive #622Low RiskModerate 69ML↑ 16pt
$12.34+1.98%
Day High$12.38
Day Low$12.12
Volume2.5M
Mkt Cap$3.2B
52W Low $1252W High $16
Market Cap
$3.2B
P/E Ratio
9.7
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
44.7%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
37.6%
Profit Margin
52.5%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
1.25

Why This Score

GBDC scores 54.9 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High net margin of 52.5%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 9.7x earnings, below the market average.
  • Low volatility (4.4% annualized) — well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.25) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Moderate penalties (-6.7 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score54.9
Fundamental Score62.5
ML Score38.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
67.2
6 Month
75.1
Primary
1 Year
79.1

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
46
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
64
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
77
Grade Brange bound
Base
52.3
SHAP
+3.3
Factors
+0.7
Divergence
-1.4
Final
54.9
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)78.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)60.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)77.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-2.5% to +3.6%
Medium-term
-3.5% to +5.8%
Long-term
-4.4% to +8.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 38

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score63.6/100
Target Upside+14.8%
Coverage11 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score45.8/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.1%
6M Momentum-0.1%
Volatility+0.0%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+0.2%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.98)
Relative Strength vs Sector-19.3%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.3)
Momentum Quality-0.093
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
5%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P92
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P75
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P88
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.6σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 63 relative to sector peers63/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 79th percentileP79
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +5.0pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (63.3) + 9% ML (78.9) + SHAP(+5.0) = 69.7—
Factor quality: +1.1pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 4.4%. Stability bonus of +12.0 points. Max drawdown 11% (-1.1 pts). Price momentum -10% (-1.1 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($3.2B market cap)+0.5 pts
Divergence penalty: -0.7pt (ML 16pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-43.1%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #132 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
GBDC54.99.744.7%52.5%$3.2B
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy11 analysts
Buy: 6Hold: 5
Price Target
$14consensus
Low $13Median $14High $15
+13.5% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Golub Capital BDC, Inc. (GBDC) is a business development company and operates as an externally managed closed-end non-diversified management investment company. It invests in debt and minority equity investments in middle-market companies that are, in most cases, sponsored by private equity investors. It typically invests in diversified consumer services, automobiles, healthcare technology, insurance, health care equipment and supplies, hotels, restaurants and leisure, healthcare providers and services, IT services and specialty retails. It seeks to invest in the United States. It primarily invests in first lien traditional senior debt, first lien one stop, junior debt and equity, senior secured, one stop, unitranche, second lien, subordinated and mezzanine loans of middle-market companies, and warrants.

CEO
David Golub
Employees
875
Beta
0.44
Industry
Asset Management
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
33.9
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-22.1%
High: $15.85
From 52W Low
+3.1%
Low: $11.97
Moving Averages
10-Day
$12.40
Below
20-Day
$12.70
Below
50-Day
$13.20
Below
200-Day
$14.20
Below
60-Day Support
$11.97
60-Day Resistance
$14.41
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 19/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-13.1%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-2.82%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.21x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ1 2025Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025
Revenue$137M$172M$166M$154M
Gross Profit$73M$104M$98M$87M
Operating Income$65M$96M$90M$79M
Net Income$65M$96M$90M$79M
EPS (Diluted)$0.25$0.36$0.34$0.30
Gross Margin53.5%60.6%58.9%56.2%
Operating Margin47.7%55.8%54.0%51.2%
Net Margin47.7%55.9%54.2%51.3%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 9.7Revenue growth 44.7%Profit margin 52.5%

Tradability FilterGrade B — 77/100Score impact: +8.2pt

Volume
100
2.2M avg/day
Dollar Vol
84
$26M/day
Float
60
0K shares
Mkt Cap
63
$3.2B
Range
49
32% spread
Composite Liquidity Score77/100
FDCBA
range bound

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Range-BoundSideways: 66/100
Range-Bound Stock

This stock has traded in a compressed range for 4 of the last 5 years (3-year range: 36.3%). Range-bound stocks may indicate limited upside potential. A -3.3pt penalty has been applied.

YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$14.45$16.2211.5%Narrow
2022$11.94$16.2330.5%Moderate
2023$12.27$15.3822.5%Narrow
2024$14.05$17.7223.1%Narrow
2025$12.68$16.0123.2%Narrow
3-Year Range
36.3%
Narrow Years
4 / 5
Sideways Penalty
-3.3pt

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.49x dampening
weinstein basingrange bound

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
32.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.