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36

FLY

๐Ÿญ Industrials

Firefly Aerospace Inc.

Conservative #960Aggressive #826Moderate RiskModerate 60
$21.53+5.80%
Day High$21.78
Day Low$20.05
Volume2.9M
Mkt Cap$3.4B
52W Low $1652W High $74
Market Cap
$3.2B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
10.1%
Sector avg: 19.0%
Earnings Growth
-70.6%
Profit Margin
-251.8%
Sector avg: -48.2%
Debt/Equity
0.05

Why This Score

FLY scores 35.9 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 95.5% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.05) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
Risk Factors
  • Above-average volatility (20.0%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (-2.6 points) applied. FLY's rank of #960 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score35.9
Fundamental Score40.1
ML Score24.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
40.4
6 Month
45.2
Primary
1 Year
47.6

Quality Assessment

D
Quality Grade
Below average quality โ€” weak profitability or high leverage
1 quality flag detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
Negative ROIC (-15.9%) with high ROE (95.5%) โ€” capital structure distortion (possibly negative equity or one-time gain)

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
50
Basing
Sentiment (2.5%)
67
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
65
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
94
Grade A
Base
36.9
SHAP
-1.2
Factors
+0.4
Divergence
-0.2
Final
35.9
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

40AVG
Value50
Quality33
Growth30
Stability73
Investment12

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)61.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)52.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)83.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage72%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-4.4% to -0.0%
Medium-term
-6.5% to +0.1%
Long-term
-8.6% to +0.2%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 24

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score65.0/100
Target Upside+106.1%
Coverage5 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score67.3/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage1 โ€” Basing
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+0.0%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (0.00)
Relative Strength vs Sector-10.6%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.0)
Momentum Quality+0.000
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
2%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P67
Revenue growth vs Industrials peers
Sector PE Rank
P56
Valuation vs Industrials peers
Sector FCF Rank
P11
Free cash flow vs Industrials peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 40 relative to sector peers40/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 24th percentileP24
Blended score: 80% fundamental (40) + 20% ML (24) = 36.936.9
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.2%Low
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade D
Divergence penalty: -0.2pt (ML 16pt lower)Divergence
Risk Factors
Quality concern: Negative ROIC (-15.9%) with high ROE (95.5%) โ€” capital structure distortion (possibly negative equity or one-time gain)Flag

Sector Peer Comparison(Industrials โ€” Rank #96 of 135 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
FLY35.9N/A10.1%-251.8%$3.2B
FER84.112.27.4%35.3%$52.6B
NDSN77.235.13.8%17.4%$16.2B
OMAB76.420.14.3%32.7%$6.1B
ODFL76.339.8-0.9%20.4%$40.8B
FAST73.142.68.7%15.3%$51.7B
CSX71.526.5-3.1%20.5%$78.9B
WWD71.347.87.3%12.4%$23.0B
LECO71.331.5-4.4%11.6%$15.6B
PCAR71.028.2-4.2%12.4%$65.1B
CTAS70.841.97.7%17.5%$80.3B
RYAAY69.913.03.8%11.6%$36.1B
CPRT69.523.09.7%33.4%$35.6B
FELE69.335.5-2.1%8.9%$4.3B
NSSC68.934.5-3.8%24.7%$1.7B
AEIS68.081.221.4%8.3%$12.3B
Sector Average45.849.919.0%-48.2%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Firefly Aerospace Inc. operates as a space and defense technology company and provides mission solutions for national security, government, and commercial customers. It offers integrated launch and space services technology that is committed to enabling launch, transit, and operations in space. The company also provides Alpha, a responsive small launch service; Eclipse, a medium-lift launch vehicle; Blue Ghost, a lunar delivery and operation service; Elytra, which offers space maneuverability and servicing; and Ocula, a lunar imaging service. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Cedar Park, Texas.

CEO
Jason Kim
Employees
780
Beta
-1.72
Industry
Aerospace & Defense
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
46.9
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-70.8%
High: $73.8
From 52W Low
+34.6%
Low: $16
Moving Averages
10-Day
$20.40
Above
20-Day
$22.20
Below
50-Day
$24.80
Below
200-Day
N/A
60-Day Support
$16.55
60-Day Resistance
$34.37

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q2 2024
Revenue$31M$16M$56M$21M
Gross Profit$8M$4M$2M$3M
Operating Income$-62M$-54M$-59M$-49M
Net Income$-133M$-64M$-60M$-53M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.95$-0.56$-0.50$-0.41
Gross Margin27.6%25.7%4.0%14.0%
Operating Margin-202.1%-349.5%-104.8%-232.1%
Net Margin-433.5%-410.2%-107.6%-253.7%

Why This Stock

IndustrialsRevenue growth 10.1%

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 94/100Score impact: -16.8pt

Volume
100
3.1M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$63M/day
Float
100
138M shares
Mkt Cap
63
$3.2B
Range
100
361% spread
Composite Liquidity Score94/100
FDCBA

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
86.7%
Outstanding Shares
159M
Bid-Ask Spread
361.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.