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46

VSEC

🏭 Industrials

VSE Corporation

Conservative #683Aggressive #894Low RiskMixed 47ML↑ 26pt
$219.54-2.06%
Day High$231.60
Day Low$218.69
Volume0.5M
Mkt Cap$4.5B
52W Low $9852W High $232
Market Cap
$4.7B
P/E Ratio
177.2
Sector avg: 64.5
Rev Growth
25.5%
Sector avg: 19.0%
Earnings Growth
-22.0%
Profit Margin
2.4%
Sector avg: -48.2%
Debt/Equity
0.44

Why This Score

VSEC scores 45.8 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated valuation at 177.2x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.

Moderate penalties (-5.4 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score45.8
Fundamental Score54.9
ML Score17.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
67.2
6 Month
75.1
Primary
1 Year
79.0

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (-311.2%) — earnings quality concern

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
67
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
75
Grade Blow float
Base
45.2
SHAP
+3.0
Factors
+1.0
Divergence
-3.4
Final
45.8
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)40.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)88.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)60.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+5.2% to +10.3%
Medium-term
+8.7% to +16.6%
Long-term
+13.0% to +23.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 17

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside-2.8%
Coverage11 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score66.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.7%
6M Momentum+0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+46.6%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.35)
Relative Strength vs Sector+59.8%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.663
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P84
Revenue growth vs Industrials peers
Sector PE Rank
P4
Valuation vs Industrials peers
Sector FCF Rank
P30
Free cash flow vs Industrials peers
Growth Deviation
+0.3σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 52 relative to sector peers52/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 79th percentileP79
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.8pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (52.3) + 9% ML (78.8) + SHAP(+3.8) = 58.5—
Factor quality: +1.3pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 9.8%Low
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($4.7B market cap)+0.5 pts
Divergence penalty: -2.4pt (ML 26pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-311.2%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Industrials — Rank #68 of 135 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
VSEC45.8177.225.5%2.4%$4.7B
FER83.712.27.4%35.3%$51.9B
NDSN76.335.13.8%17.4%$16.6B
OMAB76.120.14.3%32.7%$6.2B
ODFL75.839.8-0.9%20.4%$40.6B
FAST72.742.68.7%15.3%$53.3B
WWD70.947.87.3%12.4%$22.8B
CSX70.926.5-3.1%20.5%$76.0B
LECO70.931.5-4.4%11.6%$16.2B
CTAS70.441.97.7%17.5%$77.7B
PCAR70.428.2-4.2%12.4%$66.7B
RYAAY69.713.03.8%11.6%$34.3B
CPRT69.123.09.7%33.4%$36.3B
FELE68.535.5-2.1%8.9%$4.8B
AEIS67.881.221.4%8.3%$11.9B
IESC67.730.916.9%9.1%$10.3B
Sector Average45.264.519.0%-48.2%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy11 analysts
Buy: 11
Price Target
$216consensus
Low $190Median $222High $250
-1.4% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

VSE Corporation operates as a diversified aftermarket products and services company in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Aviation, Fleet, and Federal and Defense. The Aviation segment provides international parts supply and distribution, supply chain solutions, and component and engine accessory maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) services. This segment serves commercial airlines, regional airlines, cargo transporters, MRO integrators and providers, aviation manufacturers, corporate and private aircraft owners, and fixed-base operators. The Fleet segment offers parts supply, inventory management, e-commerce fulfillment, logistics, and other services to assist aftermarket commercial and federal customers with their supply chain management. This segment also provides sale of vehicle parts and supply chain services to support client truck fleets, as well as sustainment solutions and managed inventory services to government and commercial truck fleets. The Federal and Defense segment offers aftermarket refurbishment and sustainment services to extend and maintain the life cycle of military vehicles, ships, and aircraft for the United States Department of Defense (DoD). This segment also provides foreign military sales services, engineering, logistics, maintenance, configuration management, prototyping, technology, and field support services to the DoD and other customers. In addition, this segment offers energy consulting services and IT solutions to various DoD, federal civilian agencies, and commercial clients. The company also provides vehicle and equipment maintenance and refurbishment, logistics, engineering support, energy services, and IT and health care IT solutions, as well as consulting services. VSE Corporation was incorporated in 1959 and is headquartered in Alexandria, Virginia.

CEO
John A. Cuomo
Employees
1,400
Beta
1.34
Industry
Aerospace & Defense
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
68.1
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-5.2%
High: $231.6
From 52W Low
+123.4%
Low: $98.27
Moving Averages
10-Day
$216.10
Above
20-Day
$209.40
Above
50-Day
$198.70
Above
200-Day
$165.10
Above
60-Day Support
$160.81
60-Day Resistance
$231.6
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 90/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+33%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+17.2%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.1x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$283M$272M$256M$299M
Gross Profit$34M$31M$27M$32M
Operating Income$33M$24M$26M$33M
Net Income$4M$16M$-9M$16M
EPS (Diluted)$0.19$0.66$-0.43$0.76
Gross Margin12.0%11.4%10.5%10.8%
Operating Margin11.8%8.6%10.0%10.9%
Net Margin1.3%6.0%-3.6%5.2%

Why This Stock

IndustrialsRevenue growth 25.5%

Tradability FilterGrade B — 75/100Score impact: -5.4pt

Volume
70
400K avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$89M/day
Float
47
19M shares
Mkt Cap
66
$4.7B
Range
100
134% spread
Composite Liquidity Score75/100
FDCBA
low float

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$36.66$65.4256.3%Wide
2022$31.85$62.5365%Wide
2023$39.89$66.4449.9%Wide
2024$57.10$123.9273.8%Wide
2025$88.69$186.0070.9%Wide
3-Year Range
129.4%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
92.6%
Outstanding Shares
21M
Bid-Ask Spread
134.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.