Back to Dashboard
61

FIBK

๐Ÿฆ Financial Services

First Interstate BancSystem, Inc.

Conservative #271Aggressive #757Low RiskMixed 46MLโ†‘ 27pt
$36.34+2.19%
Day High$36.52
Day Low$35.63
Volume0.7M
Mkt Cap$3.7B
52W Low $2352W High $39
Market Cap
$3.9B
P/E Ratio
12.5
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
-28.5%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
33.7%
Profit Margin
22.7%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.23

Why This Score

FIBK scores 61.2 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High net margin of 22.7%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 12.5x earnings, below the market average.
  • Low volatility (6.0% annualized) โ€” well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (32%) โ€” steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.

Moderate penalties (-3.5 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score61.2
Fundamental Score68.4
ML Score30.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
70.5
6 Month
78.8
Primary
1 Year
82.9

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
57
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
60
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
93
Grade A
Base
60.7
SHAP
+3.2
Factors
+0.8
Divergence
-3.5
Final
61.2
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)61.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)85.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)79.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-2.5% to +3.6%
Medium-term
-3.5% to +5.8%
Long-term
-4.5% to +7.9%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 30

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score60.0/100
Target Upside+5.0%
Coverage15 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score56.7/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.3%
6M Momentum+0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+12.1%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.63)
Relative Strength vs Sector+23.3%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.295
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
33%
High risk โ€” cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P4
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P55
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P62
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
-0.5ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
YES
Below-sector growth + cheap PE
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 57 relative to sector peers57/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 84th percentileP84
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +5.0pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (56.6) + 9% ML (83.6) + SHAP(+5.0) = 64.0โ€”
Factor quality: +1.3pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 6.0%. Stability bonus of +10.0 points. Max drawdown 9% (-0.2 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($3.9B market cap)+0.5 pts
Divergence penalty: -2.5pt (ML 27pt higher)โ€”
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -8 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-35.9%) โ€” earnings quality concern; CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure โ€” forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services โ€” Rank #86 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
FIBK61.212.5-28.5%22.7%$3.9B
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy15 analysts
Buy: 7Hold: 7Sell: 1
Price Target
$38consensus
Low $30Median $38High $44
+3.2% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

First Interstate BancSystem, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for First Interstate Bank that provides range of banking products and services in the United States. It offers various traditional depository products, including checking, savings, and time deposits; and repurchase agreements primarily for commercial and municipal depositors. The company also offers real estate loans comprising commercial real estate, construction, residential, agricultural, and other real estate loans; consumer loans comprising direct personal loans, credit card loans and lines of credit, and indirect loans; variable and fixed rate commercial loans for small and medium-sized manufacturing, wholesale, retail, and service businesses for working capital needs and business expansions; and agricultural loans. In addition, it provides a range of trust, employee benefit, investment management, insurance, agency, and custodial services to individuals, businesses, and nonprofit organizations. Further, the company offers marketing, credit review, loan servicing, credit cards issuance and servicing, mortgage loan sales and servicing, indirect consumer loan purchasing and processing, loan collection services, and other operational services, as well as online and mobile banking services. It serves individuals, businesses, municipalities, and other entities in various industries, including agriculture, construction, education, energy, governmental services, healthcare, hospitality, housing, mining, professional services, real estate development, retail, technology, tourism, and wholesale trade. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 147 banking offices, including detached drive-up facilities in communities across Idaho, Montana, Oregon, South Dakota, Washington, and Wyoming. The company was incorporated in 1971 and is headquartered in Billings, Montana.

CEO
James A. Reuter
Employees
3,481
Beta
0.75
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
37.5
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-7.4%
High: $39.26
From 52W Low
+58.3%
Low: $22.95
Moving Averages
10-Day
$37.00
Below
20-Day
$37.30
Below
50-Day
$36.70
Below
200-Day
$32.10
Above
60-Day Support
$32.7
60-Day Resistance
$39.26
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 76/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+13.2%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+8.01%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.81x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
67
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$313M$336M$339M$345M
Gross Profit$306M$251M$249M$227M
Operating Income$139M$93M$94M$66M
Net Income$109M$71M$72M$50M
EPS (Diluted)$1.08$0.69$0.69$0.49
Gross Margin97.7%74.6%73.4%65.7%
Operating Margin44.5%27.6%27.6%19.2%
Net Margin34.8%21.3%21.2%14.5%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 12.5Profit margin 22.7%Valuation below sector median (P/E 12.5)

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 93/100Score impact: +7.4pt

Volume
100
1.5M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$52M/day
Float
93
82M shares
Mkt Cap
64
$3.9B
Range
96
71% spread
Composite Liquidity Score93/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$37.23$51.2431.7%Moderate
2022$32.40$46.3435.4%Wide
2023$20.81$39.7662.6%Wide
2024$24.16$36.7741.4%Wide
2025$22.95$36.3545.2%Wide
3-Year Range
62.6%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.3x dampening
severe revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
79.9%
Outstanding Shares
103M
Bid-Ask Spread
71.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.