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27

ELVR

⛏️ Basic Materials

Elevra Lithium Limited - Americ

Conservative #1127Aggressive #1269Low Risk
$59.43+2.29%
Day High$60.38
Day Low$56.48
Volume0.0M
Mkt Cap$4.5B
52W Low $1652W High $70
Market Cap
$4.6B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
11.2%
Sector avg: 40.4%
Earnings Growth
-190.2%
Profit Margin
-131.8%
Sector avg: -552.9%
Debt/Equity
0.18

Why This Score

ELVR scores 27.9 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (20.0%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-9.8 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score27.9
Fundamental Score40.5
ML Score15.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
29.6
6 Month
33.0
Primary
1 Year
34.8

Quality Assessment

C
Quality Grade
Average quality — moderate profitability or leverage

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
50
Basing
Sentiment (2.5%)
39
Negative
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
56
Grade Clow volume
Base
30.4
SHAP
-1.6
Factors
+0.7
Divergence
-1.6
Final
27.9
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

57AVG
Value40
Quality40
Growth35
Stability90
Investment80

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)28.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)62.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)60.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-15.4% to -9.3%
Medium-term
-20.3% to -11.6%
Long-term
-25.2% to -13.9%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 15

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score38.8/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage1 — Basing
12M Momentum+0.0%
6M Momentum+0.0%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+0.0%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (0.00)
Relative Strength vs Sector-56.0%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.0)
Momentum Quality+0.000
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
4%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P77
Revenue growth vs Basic Materials peers
Sector PE Rank
P40
Valuation vs Basic Materials peers
Sector FCF Rank
P43
Free cash flow vs Basic Materials peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 41 relative to sector peers41/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 15th percentileP15
Blended score: 80% fundamental (41) + 20% ML (15) = 35.435.4
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.2%; Drawdown 0% → 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade C
Divergence penalty: -1.6pt (ML 26pt lower)Divergence
Risk Factors
Liquidity penalty: -5.0pt (grade C)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Basic Materials — Rank #23 of 31 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ELVR27.9N/A11.2%-131.8%$4.6B
RGLD77.839.418.8%46.2%$19.5B
LIN71.932.90.5%19.9%$234.9B
BCPC71.339.63.4%13.5%$5.8B
STLD67.823.83.6%6.5%$28.0B
UFPI67.621.2-7.8%6.2%$6.0B
WDFC62.736.05.0%14.4%$3.2B
IOSP60.217.3-3.7%6.6%$1.9B
KALU58.018.611.5%3.3%$2.1B
SCZM53.813.15.3%25.1%$1.2B
ELE53.6105.829.9%15.4%$1.5B
HWKN52.336.96.0%7.8%$3.1B
MEOH51.917.9-0.1%6.0%$3.8B
AUGO51.313.842.5%-5.1%$7.0B
SSRM48.627.3-30.2%-26.2%$6.5B
ALM41.9N/AN/A-216.3%$3.8B
Sector Average41.737.540.4%-552.9%

Company Overviewvia FMP

Sayona Mining Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in mineral identification, acquisition, exploration, and production in Australia and Canada. The company explores for lithium, graphite, and gold deposits. Its flagship property, the North American Lithium project, comprises 42 mineral claims covering an area of 1,493 hectares and one mining lease located in Quebec, Canada. The company also operates projects, including Authier Lithium Project, Tansim Lithium Project, Vallée Lithium Project, Moblan Lithium Project, Lac Albert Lithium Project, Troilus Claims, and Western Australia Lithium & Gold Projects. The company was formerly known as DiamonEx Limited and changed its name to Sayona Mining Limited in May 2013. Sayona Mining Limited was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Brisbane, Australia.

CEO
Lucas Dow
Employees
230
Beta
0.49
Industry
Other Precious Metals
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
68.9
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-15.1%
High: $69.99
From 52W Low
+282.2%
Low: $15.55
Moving Averages
10-Day
$55.20
Above
20-Day
$52.20
Above
50-Day
$54.80
Above
200-Day
N/A
60-Day Support
$35.65
60-Day Resistance
$69.99

Entry & Exit Zones

Avoid
No Entry
Insufficient technical data
Exit Target
Stop Level

Not enough price history to compute reliable entry and exit zones for this stock.

Technical zones only — derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025
Revenue$103M
Gross Profit$-46M
Operating Income$-51M
Net Income$-236M
EPS (Diluted)$-31.98
Gross Margin-44.7%
Operating Margin-49.7%
Net Margin-229.8%

Why This Stock

Basic MaterialsRevenue growth 11.2%

Tradability FilterGrade C — 56/100Score impact: +0.7pt

Volume
20
109K avg/day
Dollar Vol
51
$6M/day
Float
87
66M shares
Mkt Cap
65
$4.6B
Range
100
350% spread
Composite Liquidity Score56/100
FDCBA
low volume

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
88.3%
Outstanding Shares
75M
Bid-Ask Spread
350.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.