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CHDN

๐Ÿ›๏ธ Consumer Cyclical

Churchill Downs, Incorporated

Conservative #418Aggressive #360Low Risk
$91.93+1.73%
Day High$92.22
Day Low$87.07
Volume1.3M
Mkt Cap$6.4B
52W Low $8652W High $119
Market Cap
$6.4B
P/E Ratio
16.2
Sector avg: 36.9
Rev Growth
11.1%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
2.3%
Profit Margin
15.6%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
4.54

Why This Score

CHDN scores 57.8 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 39.4% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • High conviction (88/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 4.54) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Moderate penalties (-3.3 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score57.8
Fundamental Score49.7
ML Score87.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
69.8
6 Month
78.0
Primary
1 Year
82.2

Quality Assessment

B
Quality Grade
Good quality โ€” solid metrics, minor concerns possible
1 quality flag detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 4.5x โ€” balance sheet risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
50
Basing
Sentiment (2.5%)
60
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
87
Grade A
Base
57.1
SHAP
+1.8
Factors
+0.9
Conviction
+1.3
Divergence
-3.3
Final
57.8
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

67AVG
Value85
Quality85
Growth60
Stability35
Investment70

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)60.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)50.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)84.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+0.5% to +4.9%
Medium-term
+1.4% to +8.1%
Long-term
+2.3% to +11.3%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 87

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside+55.0%
Coverage23 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score60.2/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage1 โ€” Basing
12M Momentum-0.2%
6M Momentum-0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-10.8%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.56)
Relative Strength vs Sector-25.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.9)
Momentum Quality-0.192
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
16%
Moderate โ€” watch growth
Sector RevGr Rank
P77
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P77
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P91
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
+0.4ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 50 relative to sector peers50/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 87th percentileP87
Blended score: 80% fundamental (50) + 20% ML (87) = 57.257.2
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 21% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade B
SHAP feature alignment: +1.8pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: +1.3pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Divergence penalty: -3.3pt (ML 37pt higher)Divergence
Risk Factors
Quality concern: Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 4.5x โ€” balance sheet riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical โ€” Rank #36 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
CHDN57.816.211.1%15.6%$6.4B
MAR76.937.24.3%9.9%$91.3B
ULTA75.526.20.8%10.6%$30.9B
ABNB75.530.110.3%20.5%$81.6B
ORLY73.132.55.7%14.3%$78.4B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.0B
GTX71.611.83.1%8.6%$4.1B
ROST71.530.73.7%9.9%$66.4B
DPZ71.121.95.1%12.4%$13.7B
CART69.719.911.0%13.5%$10.0B
EBAY69.618.31.7%19.3%$40.2B
GNTX68.314.30.6%17.5%$5.1B
MCRI66.217.24.4%18.6%$1.7B
CASY65.541.07.3%3.4%$25.3B
AMZN65.527.712.4%10.8%$2.2T
TXRH65.227.616.0%8.1%$12.1B
Sector Average47.436.96.3%-6.5%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Churchill Downs Incorporated operates as a racing, online wagering, and gaming entertainment company in the United States. It operates through three segments: Live and Historical Racing, TwinSpires, and Gaming. As of December 31, 2021, the company owned and operated three pari-mutuel gaming entertainment venues with approximately 3,050 historical racing machines (HRMs) in Kentucky; TwinSpires, an online wagering platform for horse racing, sports, and iGaming; nine retail sportsbooks; and casino gaming in eight states with approximately 11,000 slot machines and video lottery terminals, and 200 table games. It also offers streaming video of live horse races, replays, and an assortment of racing and handicapping information; and provides the Bloodstock Research Information Services platform for horse racing statistical data. In addition, the company manufactures and operates pari-mutuel wagering systems for racetracks, off-track betting facilities, and other pari-mutuel wagering businesses. Churchill Downs Incorporated was founded in 1875 and is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky.

CEO
William C. Carstanjen
Employees
6,480
Beta
0.64
Industry
Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
47.0
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-22.8%
High: $119.11
From 52W Low
+7.4%
Low: $85.58
Moving Averages
10-Day
$92.20
Below
20-Day
$93.50
Below
50-Day
$103.00
Below
200-Day
$101.60
Below
60-Day Support
$85.84
60-Day Resistance
$118.35
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 1 โ€” BasingScore: 42/100

Stock is building a base after a decline. The 200-day moving average is flattening. Watch for a breakout above the 200-day SMA on increased volume.

Monitor for breakout above 200-day SMA on volume
Price vs 200 SMA
-9.5%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-0.42%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
1.44x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
24
Confidence: 70%

Entry & Exit Zones

Below Entry Zone
$80.76
Stop Entry Now Target
$122.68
Entry Zone
$99.57 โ€“ $103.63
Near SMA200 base ($99.57โ€“$103.63)
Exit Target
$119.11
Prior high / breakout target ($119.11)
Stop Level
$83.26
60-day low ($83.26)
Risk / Reward:1 : 0.95Tight

Stage 1 base-building โ€” stock is consolidating above long-term support. Entry near SMA200 offers a defined risk level. Wait for volume confirmation before sizing up.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$666M$683M$934M$643M
Gross Profit$197M$204M$392M$190M
Operating Income$125M$98M$328M$135M
Net Income$50M$38M$217M$77M
EPS (Diluted)$0.71$0.53$3.00$1.02
Gross Margin29.5%29.9%42.0%29.5%
Operating Margin18.8%14.3%35.1%20.9%
Net Margin7.5%5.5%23.2%11.9%

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalP/E ratio of 16.2Revenue growth 11.1%Profit margin 15.6%

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 87/100Score impact: -9.6pt

Volume
89
737K avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$69M/day
Float
86
66M shares
Mkt Cap
71
$6.4B
Range
77
39% spread
Composite Liquidity Score87/100
FDCBA

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
94.4%
Outstanding Shares
70M
Bid-Ask Spread
39.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.