Back to Dashboard
33

CGABL

๐Ÿฆ Financial Services

The Carlyle Group Inc. 4.625% Subordinated Notes due 2061

Conservative #1017Aggressive #1098Low RiskMLโ†‘ 40pt
$17.59+0.17%
Day High$17.63
Day Low$17.38
Volume0.1M
Mkt Cap$6.3B
52W Low $1652W High $19
Market Cap
$6.3B
P/E Ratio
23.6
Sector avg: 26.8
Rev Growth
83.1%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
267.7%
Profit Margin
17.6%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
2.04

Why This Score

CGABL scores 33.2 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Low volatility (3.1% annualized) โ€” well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 25-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 2.04) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Net penalties of -27.6 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, CGABL would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score33.2
Fundamental Score63.3
ML Score31.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
54.2
6 Month
60.6
Primary
1 Year
63.8

Quality Assessment

C
Quality Grade
Average quality โ€” moderate profitability or leverage
1 quality flag detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (317.3%) โ€” earnings quality concern

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
50
Basing
Sentiment (2.5%)
41
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
0
Grade Fvery low volume, very low dollar volume
Base
31.8
SHAP
+3.5
Factors
+0.5
Divergence
-2.6
Final
33.2
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

60AVG
Value68
Quality50
Growth100
Stability70
Investment13

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)66.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)79.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)60.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-2.5% to +1.6%
Medium-term
-3.2% to +2.8%
Long-term
-4.0% to +4.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 31

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score40.7/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage1 โ€” Basing
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum+0.0%
Volatility+0.0%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+3.1%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.38)
Relative Strength vs Sector-3.8%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (1.6)
Momentum Quality+0.049
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P98
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P23
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P4
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+1.2ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 63 relative to sector peers63/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 31th percentileP31
Blended score: 80% fundamental (63) + 20% ML (31) = 56.856.8
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.0%; Drawdown 3% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade C
SHAP feature alignment: +3.5pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Divergence penalty: -2.6pt (ML 32pt lower)Divergence
Risk Factors
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (317.3%) โ€” earnings quality concernFlag
Liquidity penalty: -25.0pt (grade F)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services โ€” Rank #267 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
CGABL33.223.683.1%17.6%$6.3B
CME86.427.29.9%57.5%$114.0B
FHB84.911.83.2%24.2%$3.1B
ACT84.58.92.4%54.6%$6.1B
CINF84.210.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
SEIC82.214.010.7%27.3%$9.9B
TROW79.910.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
QQQX79.710.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
IBOC78.210.67.5%40.1%$4.2B
HWC77.812.2-1.5%24.1%$5.6B
FFIN77.518.811.7%30.7%$4.7B
TRMK77.111.934.8%19.3%$2.6B
NMIH77.17.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
EWBC76.712.74.6%28.3%$15.3B
WSFS76.312.8-3.1%21.1%$3.5B
MCHB76.1N/A123.7%23.2%$3.1B
Sector Average47.526.813.4%-2.8%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Functions as a financing subsidiary/special purpose entity

Beta
0.80
Industry
Financial - Credit Services
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
60.7
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-6.4%
High: $18.8
From 52W Low
+7.1%
Low: $16.43
Moving Averages
10-Day
$17.70
Below
20-Day
$17.50
Above
50-Day
$17.50
Above
200-Day
$17.70
Below
60-Day Support
$16.92
60-Day Resistance
$17.85
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 1 โ€” BasingScore: 40/100

Stock is building a base after a decline. The 200-day moving average is flattening. Watch for a breakout above the 200-day SMA on increased volume.

Monitor for breakout above 200-day SMA on volume
Transition signal: 1โ†’2
Price vs 200 SMA
-0.6%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+0.15%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
0.67x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
5
Confidence: 80%

Entry & Exit Zones

In Entry Zone
$15.92
Stop Entry Now Target
$19.36
Entry Zone
$17.35 โ€“ $18.05
Near SMA200 base ($17.35โ€“$18.05)
Exit Target
$18.80
Prior high / breakout target ($18.8)
Stop Level
$16.41
60-day low ($16.41)
Risk / Reward:1 : 0.85Tight

Stage 1 base-building โ€” stock is consolidating above long-term support. Entry near SMA200 offers a defined risk level. Wait for volume confirmation before sizing up.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$1.9B$333M$1.6B$973M
Gross Profit$0$0$0$480M
Operating Income$100,000$0$-100,000$165M
Net Income$247M$113M$320M$130M
EPS (Diluted)$0.66$0.30$0.87$0.35
Gross Margin0.0%0.0%0.0%49.3%
Operating Margin0.0%0.0%-0.0%16.9%
Net Margin13.0%33.8%20.3%13.4%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 23.6Revenue growth 83.1%Profit margin 17.6%

Tradability FilterGrade F โ€” 0/100Score impact: -8.7pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor โ€” it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
0
37K avg/day
Dollar Vol
0
$654K/day
Float
0
0K shares
Mkt Cap
0
$6.3B
Range
0
14% spread
Composite Liquidity Score0/100
FDCBA
very low volumevery low dollar volumesideways trading
Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
359M
Bid-Ask Spread
14.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.