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CBIO

๐Ÿฅ Healthcare

Crescent Biopharma, Inc.

Conservative #1393Aggressive #1457High Risk
$12.09-2.07%
Day High$12.32
Day Low$11.49
Volume0.1M
Mkt Cap$333M
52W Low $952W High $29
Market Cap
$321M
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
-100.0%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
-93.7%
Profit Margin
-183.1%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.03

Why This Score

CBIO scores 6.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.03) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 15-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (16.6%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -16.8 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, CBIO would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score6.6
Fundamental Score27.2
ML Score3.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
29.1
6 Month
32.5
Primary
1 Year
34.3

Quality Assessment

F
Quality Grade
Low quality โ€” significant fundamental weaknesses
1 quality flag detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
Pipeline concentration: $0.3B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4.8%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
57
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
67
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
34
Grade Dlow volume, low dollar volume
Base
7.4
SHAP
+0.6
Factors
+0.2
Conviction
-0.2
Divergence
-1.4
Final
6.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

23AVG
Value50
Quality0
Growth0
Stability52
Investment14

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)33.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)26.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)81.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-14.1% to -5.6%
Medium-term
-18.8% to -6.6%
Long-term
-23.5% to -7.6%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 3

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score67.3/100
Target Upside+176.3%
Coverage13 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score56.9/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum-0.7%
6M Momentum-0.4%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-29.0%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.57)
Relative Strength vs Sector-91.3%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (4.0)
Momentum Quality-0.239
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
3%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P2
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P22
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P13
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
-0.1ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 27 relative to sector peers27/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 3th percentileP3
Blended score: 80% fundamental (27) + 20% ML (3) = 22.422.4
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.2%; Drawdown 64% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade F: quality flags triggered โ€” see details below. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade F
SHAP feature alignment: +0.6pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: -0.2pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Divergence penalty: -1.4pt (ML 24pt lower)Divergence
Risk Factors
Quality concern: Pipeline concentration: $0.3B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary riskFlag
Liquidity penalty: -15.0pt (grade D)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare โ€” Rank #335 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
CBIO6.6N/A-100.0%-183.1%$321M
INCY89.915.821.2%25.0%$20.2B
GMAB86.113.122.8%36.4%$18.1B
CPRX83.713.723.5%37.6%$2.9B
ASND78.316.698.0%-31.7%$14.0B
EXEL78.315.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
VRTX78.232.18.9%32.9%$125.2B
NBIX75.126.521.4%16.7%$13.3B
RPRX75.025.15.1%32.4%$19.8B
HOLX74.831.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
AMGN74.226.010.0%21.0%$210.2B
ARGX73.735.178.6%38.0%$48.0B
REGN73.019.41.0%31.4%$81.3B
ALKS72.916.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
ISRG72.761.720.5%28.4%$177.8B
KRYS71.541.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
Sector Average36.641.9161.5%-3292.7%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy13 analysts
Buy: 9Hold: 4
Price Target
$33consensus
Low $29Median $35High $35
+173.0% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Crescent Biopharma, Inc., a biotechnology company, researches and develops cancer therapy candidates. Its pipeline includes CR-001, a proprietary anti-PD-1/anti-VEGF bispecific antibody to treat solid tumors; and CR-002, and CR-003. The company has a strategic partnership with Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharmaceutical Co., Ltd. for the development and commercialization of oncology therapeutics, including novel combinations. The company is headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts.

CEO
Joshua T. Brumm
Employees
41
Beta
1.34
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
74.0
Overbought
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-58.1%
High: $28.84
From 52W Low
+38.6%
Low: $8.72
Moving Averages
10-Day
$11.20
Above
20-Day
$10.40
Above
50-Day
$11.30
Above
200-Day
$13.70
Below
60-Day Support
$8.72
60-Day Resistance
$16.35
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 14/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-11.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-22.29%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.09x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Entry & Exit Zones

Avoid
No Entry
โ€”
No entry โ€” active downtrend
Exit Target
โ€”
Exit position if held
Stop Level
โ€”
No stop โ€” exit recommended

Stage 4 downtrend โ€” price is below both SMA50 and SMA200 with a declining 200-day average. Capital preservation takes priority. Do not buy into a downtrend.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$-31M$31M$0$0
Gross Profit$-29M$29M$-2,000$0
Operating Income$-103M$-26M$-21M$-2M
Net Income$-101M$-25M$-22M$-2M
EPS (Diluted)$-12817.72$0.03$-0.28$-0.04
Gross MarginN/A94.7%N/AN/A
Operating MarginN/A-84.7%N/AN/A
Net MarginN/A-80.5%N/AN/A

Why This Stock

Healthcare

Tradability FilterGrade D โ€” 34/100Score impact: -32.3pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor โ€” it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
49
198K avg/day
Dollar Vol
16
$2M/day
Float
20
0K shares
Mkt Cap
12
$321M
Range
100
233% spread
Composite Liquidity Score34/100
FDCBA
low volumelow dollar volumesmall cap

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.21x dampening
weinstein basingsevere revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
233.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.