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63

ALGN

🏥 Healthcare

Align Technology, Inc.

Conservative #232Aggressive #317Moderate RiskHigh 95
$188.05+1.36%
Day High$188.52
Day Low$184.93
Volume0.9M
Mkt Cap$13.5B
52W Low $12252W High $208
Market Cap
$13.5B
P/E Ratio
33.0
Sector avg: 252.3
Rev Growth
3.5%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
-5.3%
Profit Margin
10.5%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.03

Why This Score

ALGN scores 63.4 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.03) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • High conviction (95/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (12.9%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (-1.2 points) applied. ALGN's rank of #232 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score63.4
Fundamental Score56.0
ML Score79.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
76.3
6 Month
85.3
Primary
1 Year
89.8

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
20
Topping
Sentiment (2.5%)
48
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
66
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
94
Grade A
Base
60.6
SHAP
+1.4
Factors
+1.0
Conviction
+1.7
Divergence
-1.2
Final
63.4
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

66AVG
Value55
Quality70
Growth45
Stability90
Investment70

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)50.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)58.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)79.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+3.5% to +8.4%
Medium-term
+6.0% to +13.4%
Long-term
+9.2% to +19.3%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 79

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score65.9/100
Target Upside+8.9%
Coverage33 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score48.4/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage3 — Topping
12M Momentum-0.0%
6M Momentum+0.3%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-31.7%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.00)
Relative Strength vs Sector-24.6%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.0)
Momentum Quality-0.001
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
7%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P46
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P16
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P84
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 76 relative to sector peers76/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 83th percentileP83
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.4pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (75.7) + 9% ML (83.2) + SHAP(+2.4) = 78.8
Factor quality: +1.7pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 12.9%. Max drawdown 34% (-10.3 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: +2.0 points ($13.5B market cap)+2.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +3.0pt (conviction=95)
Risk Factors

No risk factors identified.

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #27 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ALGN63.433.03.5%10.5%$13.5B
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$20.1B
GMAB85.513.122.8%36.4%$18.5B
CPRX82.213.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$126.0B
ASND75.716.698.0%-31.7%$13.3B
NBIX74.726.521.4%16.7%$12.5B
ALKS74.616.5-6.4%23.9%$5.5B
AMGN73.826.010.0%21.0%$199.0B
ARGX73.635.178.6%38.0%$50.9B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.719.41.0%31.4%$84.9B
ISRG72.361.720.5%28.4%$172.5B
EXEL71.915.17.0%33.7%$11.7B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
HALO70.216.822.4%43.7%$9.3B
Sector Average37.1252.3161.5%-3292.7%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy33 analysts
Buy: 23Hold: 8Sell: 2
Price Target
$197consensus
Low $140Median $200High $220
+4.9% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Align Technology, Inc., a medical device company, designs, manufactures, and markets Invisalign clear aligners and iTero intraoral scanners and services for orthodontists and general practitioner dentists, and restorative and aesthetic dentistry. It operates in two segments, Clear Aligner; and Scanners and Services. The Clear Aligner segment consists of comprehensive products, including Invisalign comprehensive treatment that addresses the orthodontic needs of teenage patients, such as mandibular advancement, compliance indicators, and compensation for tooth eruption; and Invisalign First Phase I and Invisalign First Comprehensive Phase 2 package for younger patients generally between the ages of seven and ten years, which is a mixture of primary/baby and permanent teeth. This segment's non-comprehensive products comprise Invisalign moderate, lite and express packages, and Invisalign go; and non-case products include retention products, Invisalign training fees, and sales of ancillary products, such as cleaning material, and adjusting tools used by dental professionals during the course of treatment. The Scanners and Services segment offers iTero scanner, a single hardware platform with software options for restorative or orthodontic procedures; restorative software for general practitioner dentists, prosthodontists, periodontists, and oral surgeons; and software for orthodontists for digital records storage, orthodontic diagnosis, and for the fabrication of printed models and retainers. This segment also provides computer-aided design and computer-aided manufacturing services; ancillary products, such as disposable sleeves for the wand; iTero model and dies; third party scanners and digital scans; Invisalign outcome simulator, a chair-side and cloud-based application for the iTero scanner; Invisalign progress assessment tool; and TimeLapse technology, which allows doctors or practitioners to compare a patient's historic 3D scans to the present-day scan. The company sells its products in the United States, Switzerland, China, and internationally. Align Technology, Inc. was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Tempe, Arizona.

CEO
Joseph Hogan
Employees
21,200
Beta
1.83
Industry
Medical - Devices
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
68.0
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-9.7%
High: $208.31
From 52W Low
+54.1%
Low: $122
Moving Averages
10-Day
$188.00
Above
20-Day
$180.30
Above
50-Day
$170.80
Above
200-Day
$160.20
Above
60-Day Support
$144
60-Day Resistance
$199.06
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 3 — ToppingScore: 23/100

Stock is losing momentum near highs. The 200-day SMA is flattening or beginning to turn. Historically, this stage precedes distribution.

Exercise caution; tighten risk management
Price vs 200 SMA
+17.4%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-1.03%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
1.09x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
15
Confidence: 70%
Key Reversal Detected (2026-02-12)

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$1.0B$996M$1.0B$979M
Gross Profit$688M$639M$708M$680M
Operating Income$160M$96M$163M$131M
Net Income$136M$57M$125M$93M
EPS (Diluted)$1.89$0.78$1.72$1.27
Gross Margin65.7%64.2%69.9%69.5%
Operating Margin15.2%9.7%16.1%13.4%
Net Margin13.0%5.7%12.3%9.5%

Why This Stock

HealthcareProfit margin 10.5%Earnings quality grade A

Tradability FilterGrade A — 94/100Score impact: -4.3pt

Volume
100
1.3M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$237M/day
Float
87
67M shares
Mkt Cap
82
$13.5B
Range
95
71% spread
Composite Liquidity Score94/100
FDCBA

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
93.6%
Outstanding Shares
72M
Bid-Ask Spread
71.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.