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29

AFRM

🏦 Financial Services

Affirm Holdings, Inc.

Conservative #1147Aggressive #382Moderate RiskML↑ 50pt
Market Cap
$16.6B
P/E Ratio
61.5
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
38.8%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
110.1%
Profit Margin
1.6%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
2.56

Why This Score

AFRM scores 28.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated valuation at 61.5x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Above-average volatility (18.1%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 2.56) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Net penalties of -11.4 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, AFRM would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score28.6
Fundamental Score26.1
ML Score53.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
69.9
6 Month
78.1
Primary
1 Year
82.2

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4.4%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
50
Basing
Sentiment (2.5%)
59
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
66
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
97
Grade A
Base
31.5
SHAP
+2.4
Factors
+1.3
Conviction
-4.8
Divergence
-1.8
Final
28.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

52AVG
Value40
Quality55
Growth90
Stability35
Investment40

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)38.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)32.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)81.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+1.2% to +5.7%
Medium-term
+2.5% to +9.4%
Long-term
+3.7% to +13.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 53

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score65.6/100
Target Upside+79.5%
Coverage32 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score59.1/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage1 — Basing
12M Momentum-0.2%
6M Momentum-0.4%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+21.3%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.51)
Relative Strength vs Sector-31.2%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (1.2)
Momentum Quality-0.126
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P91
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P8
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P55
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.5σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 33 relative to sector peers33/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 82th percentileP82
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.4pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (32.6) + 9% ML (82.5) + SHAP(+2.4) = 39.5—
Factor quality: +1.3pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 18.1%. Max drawdown 44% (-12.0 pts). Price momentum -22% (-3.5 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: +2.0 points ($16.6B market cap)+2.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -4.8pt (conviction=0)—
Divergence penalty: -6.1pt (ML 50pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade A
Quality concern: High leverage: D/E ratio of 2.6x — elevated balance sheet riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #287 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
AFRM28.661.538.8%1.6%$16.6B
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

No analyst sentiment data available for AFRM.

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesRevenue growth 38.8%

Tradability FilterGrade A — 97/100Score impact: -14.7pt

Volume
100
5.9M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$280M/day
Float
100
279M shares
Mkt Cap
83
$16.6B
Range
100
224% spread
Composite Liquidity Score97/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$46.50$176.65116.6%Wide
2022$8.62$102.21168.9%Wide
2023$8.80$52.48142.6%Wide
2024$22.25$73.34106.9%Wide
2025$30.90$100.00105.6%Wide
3-Year Range
167.6%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
83.8%
Outstanding Shares
333M
Bid-Ask Spread
224.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.