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40

WB

📡 Communication Services

Weibo Corporation

Conservative #845Aggressive #1274Low RiskModerate 67F↑ 16pt
$10.23-0.78%
Day High$10.57
Day Low$10.20
Volume0.8M
Mkt Cap$2.4B
52W Low $752W High $13
Market Cap
$2.4B
P/E Ratio
5.1
Sector avg: 120.6
Rev Growth
-0.3%
Sector avg: 15.8%
Earnings Growth
-12.2%
Profit Margin
26.6%
Sector avg: -116.3%
Debt/Equity
0.48

Why This Score

WB scores 40.3 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High net margin of 26.6%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 5.1x earnings, below the market average.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (12%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (11.4%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -14.4 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, WB would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score40.3
Fundamental Score56.9
ML Score26.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
56.5
6 Month
63.1
Primary
1 Year
66.5

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality
Country Risk:
Score penalty of points applied for domicile risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
69
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
58
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
84
Grade A
Base
38.7
SHAP
+3.0
Factors
+1.1
Divergence
-2.4
Final
40.3
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)61.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)51.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)82.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-5.3% to +1.3%
Medium-term
-7.9% to +1.9%
Long-term
-10.5% to +2.5%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 26

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score58.0/100
Target Upside+67.0%
Coverage22 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score68.8/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum-0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+24.3%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.92)
Relative Strength vs Sector+11.7%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (1.0)
Momentum Quality+0.093
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
8%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P29
Revenue growth vs Communication Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P66
Valuation vs Communication Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P18
Free cash flow vs Communication Services peers
Growth Deviation
-0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 82 relative to sector peers82/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 66th percentileP66
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.1pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (82.4) + 9% ML (66.1) + SHAP(+3.1) = 84.0—
Factor quality: +1.1pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 11.4%. Max drawdown 20% (-4.7 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: -4.0 points ($2.4B market cap)-4.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -0.9pt (fund 16pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Country risk: China -14.0pt [structural: -8pt, macro: -6.0pt] (VIE structure risk, HFCAA delisting risk, regulatory seizure precedent)Country

Sector Peer Comparison(Communication Services — Rank #35 of 60 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
WB40.35.1-0.3%26.6%$2.4B
GOOGL82.828.315.1%32.8%$3.7T
EA75.175.1-1.3%15.0%$50.2B
MTCH74.512.83.4%15.8%$7.3B
META72.027.222.2%30.1%$1.6T
TIGO69.810.12.5%4.4%$11.0B
BZ65.521.923.6%21.5%$8.1B
NXST65.214.49.6%13.4%$7.0B
SIRI63.69.5-1.6%9.4%$7.2B
CMCSA63.65.9-0.0%16.2%$115.0B
JOYY60.91.9-1.3%83.2%$3.3B
EVER60.610.473.7%8.4%$566M
NFLX59.630.415.9%24.3%$326.1B
TMUS59.322.68.5%12.4%$245.5B
NWS56.712.62.4%12.2%$14.7B
WMG56.451.74.4%5.4%$15.4B
Sector Average43.5120.615.8%-116.3%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy22 analysts
Buy: 10Hold: 9Sell: 3
Price Target
$17consensus
Low $8Median $10High $56
+67.9% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Weibo Corporation, through its subsidiaries, operates as a social media platform for people to create, distribute, and discover content in the People's Republic of China. It operates in two segments, Advertising and Marketing Services; and Value-Added Services. The company offers discovery products to help users discover content on its platform; self-expression products that enable its users to express themselves on its platform; and social products to promote social interaction between users on its platform. It also provides advertising and marketing solutions, such as social display advertisements; and promoted marketing offerings, such as Fans Headline and Weibo Express, as well as promoted trends and search products that appear alongside user's trends discovery and search behaviors. In addition, the company offers products, such as trends, search, video/live streaming, and editing tools; content customization, copyright contents pooling, and user interaction development; and search list recommendation, trends list recommendation, and Weibo app opening advertisements. Further, it provides back-end management, traffic support, and product solutions to MCNs, unions, and e-commerce partners; open application platform for other app developers that allows users to log into third-party applications with their Weibo account for sharing third-party content on its platform; and Weibo Wallet, a product that enables platform partners to conduct interest generation activities on Weibo, such as handing out red envelops and coupons. The company was formerly known as T.CN Corporation and changed its name to Weibo Corporation in 2012. The company was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Beijing, China. Weibo Corporation is a subsidiary of Sina Corporation.

CEO
Gaofei Wang
Employees
4,982
Beta
0.15
Industry
Internet Content & Information
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
51.7
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-21.1%
High: $12.96
From 52W Low
+44.1%
Low: $7.1
Moving Averages
10-Day
$10.10
Above
20-Day
$10.20
Above
50-Day
$10.40
Below
200-Day
$10.50
Below
60-Day Support
$9.7
60-Day Resistance
$11.28
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 23/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-2.6%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+2.74%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.65x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
16
Confidence: 40%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$443M$445M$397M$457M
Gross Profit$337M$341M$308M$356M
Operating Income$117M$146M$110M$118M
Net Income$221M$126M$107M$9M
EPS (Diluted)$0.82$0.47$0.40$0.04
Gross Margin76.0%76.7%77.6%78.0%
Operating Margin26.5%32.7%27.8%25.8%
Net Margin49.9%28.3%27.0%1.9%

Why This Stock

Communication ServicesP/E ratio of 5.1Profit margin 26.6%Earnings quality grade AValuation below sector median (P/E 5.1)

Tradability FilterGrade A — 84/100Score impact: -3.1pt

Volume
100
1.0M avg/day
Dollar Vol
61
$11M/day
Float
100
239M shares
Mkt Cap
61
$2.4B
Range
100
83% spread
Composite Liquidity Score84/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$27.30$64.7081.3%Wide
2022$10.02$36.51113.9%Wide
2023$9.09$25.5795.1%Wide
2024$7.03$12.4055.3%Wide
2025$7.10$12.9658.4%Wide
3-Year Range
113.7%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.11x dampening
weinstein decliningslight revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
100.0%
Outstanding Shares
239M
Bid-Ask Spread
83.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.