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58

EXPO

🏭 Industrials

Exponent, Inc.

Conservative #354Aggressive #939Low RiskHigh 94
$70.49+0.43%
Day High$70.83
Day Low$69.34
Volume0.3M
Mkt Cap$3.5B
52W Low $6452W High $88
Market Cap
$3.5B
P/E Ratio
33.3
Sector avg: 64.5
Rev Growth
4.2%
Sector avg: 19.0%
Earnings Growth
-2.7%
Profit Margin
18.2%
Sector avg: -48.2%
Debt/Equity
0.21

Why This Score

EXPO scores 58.0 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 25.5% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • Low volatility (3.7% annualized) — well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • High conviction (94/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.

Moderate penalties (-4.3 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score58.0
Fundamental Score64.4
ML Score34.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
67.8
6 Month
75.7
Primary
1 Year
79.7

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
False stability: 0.037 vol with only 4.2% revenue growth — stagnation, not safety

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
47
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
68
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
76
Grade B
Base
56.3
SHAP
+1.6
Factors
+0.6
Conviction
+1.8
Divergence
-2.3
Final
58.0
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)60.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)57.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)79.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-2.7% to +3.4%
Medium-term
-3.7% to +5.5%
Long-term
-4.7% to +7.6%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 34

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score67.9/100
Target Upside+22.3%
Coverage7 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score46.8/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.2%
6M Momentum-0.1%
Volatility+0.0%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-14.2%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.28)
Relative Strength vs Sector-31.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality-0.166
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
11%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P47
Revenue growth vs Industrials peers
Sector PE Rank
P38
Valuation vs Industrials peers
Sector FCF Rank
P56
Free cash flow vs Industrials peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 71 relative to sector peers71/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 80th percentileP80
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.5pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (71.3) + 9% ML (79.5) + SHAP(+2.5) = 74.6
Factor quality: +1.0pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 3.7%. Stability bonus of +12.0 points. Max drawdown 16% (-3.3 pts). Price momentum -20% (-3.0 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($3.5B market cap)+0.5 pts
Conviction bonus: +2.9pt (conviction=94)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -8 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-26.1%) — earnings quality concern; False stability: 0.0 vol with only 4.2% revenue growth — stagnation, not safetyFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Industrials — Rank #31 of 135 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
EXPO58.033.34.2%18.2%$3.5B
FER83.712.27.4%35.3%$51.9B
NDSN76.335.13.8%17.4%$16.6B
OMAB76.120.14.3%32.7%$6.2B
ODFL75.839.8-0.9%20.4%$40.6B
FAST72.742.68.7%15.3%$53.3B
WWD70.947.87.3%12.4%$22.8B
CSX70.926.5-3.1%20.5%$76.0B
LECO70.931.5-4.4%11.6%$16.2B
CTAS70.441.97.7%17.5%$77.7B
PCAR70.428.2-4.2%12.4%$66.7B
RYAAY69.713.03.8%11.6%$34.3B
CPRT69.123.09.7%33.4%$36.3B
FELE68.535.5-2.1%8.9%$4.8B
AEIS67.881.221.4%8.3%$11.9B
IESC67.730.916.9%9.1%$10.3B
Sector Average45.264.519.0%-48.2%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy7 analysts
Buy: 5Hold: 2
Price Target
$85consensus
Low $85Median $85High $85
+20.6% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Exponent, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a science and engineering consulting company worldwide. It operates in two segments, Engineering and Other Scientific, and Environmental and Health. The Engineering and Other Scientific segment provides services in the areas of biomechanics, biomedical engineering and sciences, buildings and structures, civil engineering, construction consulting, data sciences, electrical engineering and computer science, human factors, materials and corrosion engineering, mechanical engineering, polymer science and materials chemistry, thermal sciences, and vehicle engineering. The Environmental and Health segment offers services in the areas of chemical regulation and food safety, ecological and biological sciences, environmental and earth sciences, and health sciences. The company offers approximately 90 technical disciplines to solve pressing and complicated challenges facing stakeholders. It serves clients in chemical, construction, consumer products, energy, food, beverage and nutrition, government, life sciences, insurance, manufacturing, technology, industrial equipment, transportation, and other sectors of the economy. The company was formerly known as The Failure Group, Inc. and changed its name to Exponent, Inc. in 1998. Exponent, Inc. was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Menlo Park, California.

CEO
Catherine Ford Corrigan
Employees
966
Beta
0.78
Industry
Consulting Services
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
50.7
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-19.8%
High: $87.88
From 52W Low
+10.5%
Low: $63.81
Moving Averages
10-Day
$69.50
Above
20-Day
$71.50
Below
50-Day
$72.60
Below
200-Day
$72.20
Below
60-Day Support
$65.6
60-Day Resistance
$81.95
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 24/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Transition signal: 3→4
Price vs 200 SMA
-2.4%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-3.53%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.29x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
10
Confidence: 50%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2026Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$147M$147M$142M$146M
Gross Profit$36M$37M$23M$137M
Operating Income$29M$29M$17M$44M
Net Income$25M$28M$27M$27M
EPS (Diluted)$0.49$0.55$0.52$0.52
Gross Margin24.3%24.9%16.4%94.5%
Operating Margin19.8%19.7%12.1%30.5%
Net Margin16.8%19.1%18.7%18.3%

Why This Stock

IndustrialsProfit margin 18.2%

Tradability FilterGrade B — 76/100Score impact: +6.9pt

Volume
73
429K avg/day
Dollar Vol
87
$30M/day
Float
80
50M shares
Mkt Cap
64
$3.5B
Range
71
38% spread
Composite Liquidity Score76/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 6/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$85.99$127.6139%Wide
2022$80.97$118.9338%Wide
2023$64.61$112.7554.3%Wide
2024$68.70$115.7551%Wide
2025$63.81$97.5741.8%Wide
3-Year Range
57.9%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.49x dampening
weinstein basingstagnation flag

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
99.7%
Outstanding Shares
50M
Bid-Ask Spread
38.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.