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47

UPWK

🏭 Industrials

Upwork Inc.

Conservative #711Aggressive #1055Moderate RiskHigh 100
$13.85+6.70%
Day High$13.98
Day Low$12.76
Volume4.8M
Mkt Cap$1.8B
52W Low $1152W High $23
Market Cap
$1.7B
P/E Ratio
14.9
Sector avg: 49.9
Rev Growth
2.4%
Sector avg: 19.0%
Earnings Growth
-46.5%
Profit Margin
14.7%
Sector avg: -48.2%
Debt/Equity
0.60

Why This Score

UPWK scores 46.7 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 18.8% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • Attractively valued at 14.9x earnings, below the market average.
  • High conviction (100/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Above-average volatility (18.5%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (-1.2 points) applied. UPWK's rank of #711 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score46.7
Fundamental Score44.8
ML Score40.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
66.4
6 Month
74.2
Primary
1 Year
78.1

Quality Assessment

C
Quality Grade
Average quality — moderate profitability or leverage

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4.3%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
39
Negative
Analyst (6.4%)
66
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
93
Grade A
Base
42.7
SHAP
+1.3
Factors
+0.8
Conviction
+1.9
Final
46.7
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

57AVG
Value76
Quality55
Growth22
Stability59
Investment72

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)51.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)43.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)64.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+1.2% to +5.8%
Medium-term
+2.5% to +9.4%
Long-term
+3.8% to +13.1%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 40

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score66.3/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage23 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score38.9/100
News Volume0 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.2%
6M Momentum-0.1%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-2.9%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.83)
Relative Strength vs Sector-27.6%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.9)
Momentum Quality-0.112
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
52%
High risk — cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P38
Revenue growth vs Industrials peers
Sector PE Rank
P89
Valuation vs Industrials peers
Sector FCF Rank
P93
Free cash flow vs Industrials peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 45 relative to sector peers45/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 40th percentileP40
Blended score: 80% fundamental (45) + 20% ML (40) = 43.843.8
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.2%; Drawdown 34% → 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade C
SHAP feature alignment: +1.3pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: +1.9pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Risk Factors
Value trap penalty: -1.2ptValue Trap

Sector Peer Comparison(Industrials — Rank #69 of 135 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
UPWK46.714.92.4%14.7%$1.7B
FER84.112.27.4%35.3%$52.6B
NDSN77.235.13.8%17.4%$16.2B
OMAB76.420.14.3%32.7%$6.1B
ODFL76.339.8-0.9%20.4%$40.8B
FAST73.142.68.7%15.3%$51.7B
CSX71.526.5-3.1%20.5%$78.9B
WWD71.347.87.3%12.4%$23.0B
LECO71.331.5-4.4%11.6%$15.6B
PCAR71.028.2-4.2%12.4%$65.1B
CTAS70.841.97.7%17.5%$80.3B
RYAAY69.913.03.8%11.6%$36.1B
CPRT69.523.09.7%33.4%$35.6B
FELE69.335.5-2.1%8.9%$4.3B
NSSC68.934.5-3.8%24.7%$1.7B
AEIS68.081.221.4%8.3%$12.3B
Sector Average45.849.919.0%-48.2%

Company Overviewvia FMP

Upwork Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a work marketplace that connects businesses with various independent professionals and agencies in the United States, India, the Philippines, and internationally. The company's work marketplace provides access to talent with various skills across a range of categories, including sales and marketing, customer service, data science and analytics, design and creative, web, mobile, and software development. Its work marketplace also enables clients to streamline workflows, such as talent sourcing, outreach, and contracting. The company's work marketplace offers access to various functionalities for remote engagements with talent, including communication and collaboration, ability to receive talent invoices through their work marketplace, and payment protection. Its marketplace offerings include Upwork Basic, Upwork Plus, Upwork Enterprise, and Upwork Payroll, as well as managed and internet escrow agency services. The company was formerly known as Elance-oDesk, Inc. and changed its name to Upwork Inc. in May 2015. Upwork Inc. was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

CEO
Hayden Brown
Employees
600
Beta
1.02
Industry
Staffing & Employment Services
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
32.2
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-39.4%
High: $22.84
From 52W Low
+24.4%
Low: $11.13
Moving Averages
10-Day
$13.20
Above
20-Day
$15.70
Below
50-Day
$18.60
Below
200-Day
$16.60
Below
60-Day Support
$12.41
60-Day Resistance
$22.84
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 26/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Transition signal: 3→4
Price vs 200 SMA
-16.6%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+9.75%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.41x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
12
Confidence: 50%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$198M$202M$195M$193M
Gross Profit$155M$156M$152M$151M
Operating Income$28M$30M$33M$39M
Net Income$16M$29M$33M$38M
EPS (Diluted)$0.11$0.21$0.24$0.27
Gross Margin78.0%77.3%77.7%78.3%
Operating Margin14.3%14.8%16.7%20.1%
Net Margin7.9%14.5%16.8%19.6%

Why This Stock

IndustrialsP/E ratio of 14.9Profit margin 14.7%Valuation below sector median (P/E 14.9)

Tradability FilterGrade A — 93/100Score impact: -5.9pt

Volume
100
4.0M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$50M/day
Float
100
122M shares
Mkt Cap
53
$1.7B
Range
100
105% spread
Composite Liquidity Score93/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$31.31$64.4969.3%Wide
2022$9.79$34.83112.2%Wide
2023$6.56$15.9583.4%Wide
2024$8.43$18.1473.1%Wide
2025$11.13$22.3266.9%Wide
3-Year Range
109.1%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
93.1%
Outstanding Shares
131M
Bid-Ask Spread
105.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.