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54

HUBG

🏭 Industrials

Hub Group, Inc.

Conservative #509Aggressive #1021Low Risk
$43.02+4.52%
Day High$43.28
Day Low$41.34
Volume1.2M
Mkt Cap$2.6B
52W Low $3152W High $53
Market Cap
$2.5B
P/E Ratio
24.7
Sector avg: 49.9
Rev Growth
-6.1%
Sector avg: 19.0%
Earnings Growth
-37.9%
Profit Margin
2.8%
Sector avg: -48.2%
Debt/Equity
0.29

Why This Score

HUBG scores 54.1 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High conviction (100/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.

No material penalties applied. HUBG ranks #509 based on its factor profile and ML signal alignment.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score54.1
Fundamental Score49.9
ML Score51.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
62.7
6 Month
70.1
Primary
1 Year
73.8

Quality Assessment

D
Quality Grade
Below average quality — weak profitability or high leverage

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
46
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
61
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
87
Grade A
Base
50.1
SHAP
+1.6
Factors
+0.7
Conviction
+1.8
Final
54.1
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

54AVG
Value72
Quality32
Growth14
Stability80
Investment73

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)35.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)60.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)77.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-1.8% to +4.5%
Medium-term
-2.4% to +7.1%
Long-term
-3.0% to +9.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 51

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score61.3/100
Target Upside+8.6%
Coverage31 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score45.7/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum-0.0%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-8.9%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.33)
Relative Strength vs Sector-12.8%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.2)
Momentum Quality-0.018
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
26%
Moderate — watch growth
Sector RevGr Rank
P11
Revenue growth vs Industrials peers
Sector PE Rank
P47
Valuation vs Industrials peers
Sector FCF Rank
P62
Free cash flow vs Industrials peers
Growth Deviation
-0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 50 relative to sector peers50/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 51th percentileP51
Blended score: 80% fundamental (50) + 20% ML (51) = 50.150.1
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 17% → 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade D
SHAP feature alignment: +1.6pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: +1.8pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Risk Factors

No risk factors identified.

Sector Peer Comparison(Industrials — Rank #47 of 135 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
HUBG54.124.7-6.1%2.8%$2.5B
FER84.112.27.4%35.3%$52.6B
NDSN77.235.13.8%17.4%$16.2B
OMAB76.420.14.3%32.7%$6.1B
ODFL76.339.8-0.9%20.4%$40.8B
FAST73.142.68.7%15.3%$51.7B
CSX71.526.5-3.1%20.5%$78.9B
WWD71.347.87.3%12.4%$23.0B
LECO71.331.5-4.4%11.6%$15.6B
PCAR71.028.2-4.2%12.4%$65.1B
CTAS70.841.97.7%17.5%$80.3B
RYAAY69.913.03.8%11.6%$36.1B
CPRT69.523.09.7%33.4%$35.6B
FELE69.335.5-2.1%8.9%$4.3B
NSSC68.934.5-3.8%24.7%$1.7B
AEIS68.081.221.4%8.3%$12.3B
Sector Average45.849.919.0%-48.2%

Company Overviewvia FMP

Hub Group, Inc., a supply chain solutions provider, offers transportation and logistics management services in North America. The company's transportation services include intermodal, truckload, less-than-truckload, flatbed, temperature-controlled, and dedicated and regional trucking, as well as final mile, railcar, small parcel, and international transportation. Its logistics services comprise full outsource logistics solution, transportation management, freight consolidation, warehousing and fulfillment, final mile delivery, and parcel and international services. The company also provides dry van, expedited, less-than-truckload, refrigerated, and flatbed truck brokerage services. It offers a fleet of approximately 1,000 tractors and 4,600 trailers to its customers, as well as the driver staffing, management, and infrastructure. The company serves a range of industries, including retail, consumer products, and durable goods. As of December 31, 2021, it owned approximately 43,750 dry, 53-foot containers, as well as 450 refrigerated, 53-foot containers; and leased approximately 250 dry, 53-foot containers. The company was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Oak Brook, Illinois.

CEO
Phillip D. Yeager
Employees
6,386
Beta
1.13
Industry
Integrated Freight & Logistics
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
31.4
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-19.2%
High: $53.26
From 52W Low
+39.9%
Low: $30.75
Moving Averages
10-Day
$41.20
Above
20-Day
$44.10
Below
50-Day
$44.90
Below
200-Day
$38.00
Above
60-Day Support
$37.17
60-Day Resistance
$53.26
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 74/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+13.2%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+6.59%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.17x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
65
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$934M$906M$915M$974M
Gross Profit$76M$762M$766M$211M
Operating Income$39M$34M$37M$32M
Net Income$29M$25M$27M$24M
EPS (Diluted)$0.47$0.42$0.44$0.40
Gross Margin8.2%84.2%83.7%21.6%
Operating Margin4.2%3.8%4.1%3.2%
Net Margin3.1%2.8%2.9%2.5%

Why This Stock

IndustrialsP/E ratio of 24.7Valuation below sector median (P/E 24.7)

Tradability FilterGrade A — 87/100Score impact: +1.9pt

Volume
96
891K avg/day
Dollar Vol
91
$37M/day
Float
84
59M shares
Mkt Cap
61
$2.5B
Range
97
73% spread
Composite Liquidity Score87/100
FDCBA

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.35x dampening
weinstein basingrevenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
97.0%
Outstanding Shares
61M
Bid-Ask Spread
73.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.