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TTD

📡 Communication Services

The Trade Desk, Inc.

Conservative #446Aggressive #149High RiskModerate 63ML↑ 23pt
$25.16+0.88%
Day High$25.73
Day Low$24.54
Volume22.8M
Mkt Cap$12.3B
52W Low $2552W High $91
Market Cap
$12.6B
P/E Ratio
29.3
Sector avg: 120.6
Rev Growth
25.6%
Sector avg: 15.4%
Earnings Growth
119.7%
Profit Margin
16.1%
Sector avg: -115.9%
Debt/Equity
0.11

Why This Score

TTD scores 54.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (19.8%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-4.3 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score54.6
Fundamental Score46.1
ML Score90.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
77.5
6 Month
86.6
Primary
1 Year
91.1

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
56
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
64
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
97
Grade A
Base
54.9
SHAP
+2.2
Factors
+1.8
Divergence
-4.3
Final
54.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

72AVG
Value55
Quality85
Growth90
Stability90
Investment40

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)70.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)22.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)80.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+7.7% to +13.3%
Medium-term
+11.2% to +19.6%
Long-term
+17.9% to +29.5%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 90

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score64.1/100
Target Upside+107.5%
Coverage46 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score55.6/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.6%
6M Momentum-0.5%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-10.5%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.83)
Relative Strength vs Sector-63.3%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.2)
Momentum Quality-0.188
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P93
Revenue growth vs Communication Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P23
Valuation vs Communication Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P39
Free cash flow vs Communication Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.4σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 71 relative to sector peers71/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 94th percentileP94
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.4pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (70.8) + 9% ML (94.2) + SHAP(+2.4) = 75.3
Factor quality: +2.0pt (multi-factor composite)
Market cap adjustment: +2.0 points ($12.6B market cap)+2.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -2.0pt (ML 23pt higher)
Risk Factors
Risk assessment: high. Annualized volatility 19.8%. Max drawdown 70% (-12.0 pts). Price momentum -63% (-10.0 pts)High

Sector Peer Comparison(Communication Services — Rank #21 of 63 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
TTD54.629.325.6%16.1%$12.6B
GOOGL82.828.315.1%32.8%$3.7T
EA75.175.1-1.3%15.0%$50.2B
MTCH74.512.83.4%15.8%$7.3B
META72.027.222.2%30.1%$1.6T
TIGO69.810.12.5%4.4%$11.0B
BZ65.521.923.6%21.5%$8.1B
NXST65.214.49.6%13.4%$7.0B
SIRI63.69.5-1.6%9.4%$7.2B
CMCSA63.65.9-0.0%16.2%$115.0B
JOYY60.91.9-1.3%83.2%$3.3B
EVER60.610.473.7%8.4%$566M
NFLX59.630.415.9%24.3%$326.1B
TMUS59.322.68.5%12.4%$245.5B
NWS56.712.62.4%12.2%$14.7B
WMG56.451.74.4%5.4%$15.4B
Sector Average42.3120.615.4%-115.9%

Company Overviewvia FMP

Trade Desk, Inc. operates as a technology company in the United States and internationally. The company operates a self-service cloud-based platform that allows buyers to create, manage, and optimize data-driven digital advertising campaigns across various ad formats and channels, including display, video, audio, native, and social on various devices, such as computers, mobile devices, and connected TV. It also provides data and other value-added services. The company serves advertising agencies and other service providers for advertisers. The Trade Desk, Inc. was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Ventura, California.

CEO
Jeffrey Terry Green
Employees
3,522
Beta
1.09
Industry
Software - Application
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
37.4
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-72.5%
High: $91.45
From 52W Low
+5.8%
Low: $23.78
Moving Averages
10-Day
$25.50
Below
20-Day
$27.00
Below
50-Day
$33.00
Below
200-Day
$53.10
Below
60-Day Support
$23.78
60-Day Resistance
$41.01
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 10/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-52.6%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-12.77%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.1x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$847M$739M$694M$616M
Gross Profit$684M$577M$543M$473M
Operating Income$257M$161M$117M$54M
Net Income$187M$116M$90M$51M
EPS (Diluted)$0.40$0.23$0.18$0.10
Gross Margin80.7%78.1%78.2%76.8%
Operating Margin30.3%21.8%16.8%8.8%
Net Margin22.1%15.6%13.0%8.2%

Why This Stock

Communication ServicesRevenue growth 25.6%Profit margin 16.1%Earnings quality grade A

Tradability FilterGrade A — 97/100Score impact: -14.5pt

Volume
100
13.6M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$328M/day
Float
100
438M shares
Mkt Cap
81
$12.6B
Range
100
280% spread
Composite Liquidity Score97/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$46.71$114.0983.8%Wide
2022$39.00$93.2682.1%Wide
2023$41.20$91.8576.1%Wide
2024$61.48$141.5378.9%Wide
2025$35.65$127.59112.6%Wide
3-Year Range
119.5%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
89.5%
Outstanding Shares
489M
Bid-Ask Spread
280.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.