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47

SFM

๐Ÿ›’ Consumer Defensive

Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc.

Conservative #697Aggressive #277High Risk
$73.87-2.47%
Day High$75.96
Day Low$73.17
Volume2.0M
Mkt Cap$7.2B
52W Low $6552W High $182
Market Cap
$7.2B
P/E Ratio
13.4
Sector avg: 33.1
Rev Growth
12.9%
Sector avg: 10.6%
Earnings Growth
47.0%
Profit Margin
4.9%
Sector avg: -3.2%
Debt/Equity
1.27

Why This Score

SFM scores 47.1 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 28.8% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • Attractively valued at 13.4x earnings, below the market average.
  • High conviction (93/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (10.7%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.27) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Moderate penalties (-4.6 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score47.1
Fundamental Score38.5
ML Score84.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
70.4
6 Month
78.7
Primary
1 Year
82.8

Quality Assessment

C
Quality Grade
Average quality โ€” moderate profitability or leverage

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
42
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
95
Grade A
Base
47.7
SHAP
+1.4
Factors
+1.0
Conviction
+1.6
Divergence
-4.6
Final
47.1
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

69AVG
Value85
Quality55
Growth90
Stability60
Investment55

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)69.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)26.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)73.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+2.8% to +7.6%
Medium-term
+4.8% to +12.1%
Long-term
+7.4% to +17.2%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 84

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+39.2%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score42.2/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum-0.5%
6M Momentum-0.5%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-2.6%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.95)
Relative Strength vs Sector-62.9%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality-0.214
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
13%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P80
Revenue growth vs Consumer Defensive peers
Sector PE Rank
P80
Valuation vs Consumer Defensive peers
Sector FCF Rank
P78
Free cash flow vs Consumer Defensive peers
Growth Deviation
+0.3ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 39 relative to sector peers39/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 84th percentileP84
Blended score: 80% fundamental (39) + 20% ML (84) = 47.647.6
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 60% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade C
SHAP feature alignment: +1.4pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: +1.6pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Divergence penalty: -4.6pt (ML 46pt higher)Divergence
Risk Factors

No risk factors identified.

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Defensive โ€” Rank #39 of 55 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
SFM47.113.412.9%4.9%$7.2B
MNST84.446.34.9%20.1%$84.6B
COCO77.443.118.2%11.7%$3.3B
CALM76.73.583.2%27.4%$4.1B
LAUR76.325.85.5%18.9%$4.9B
WMT71.546.75.1%2.9%$1.0T
CCEP68.925.111.7%6.9%$49.7B
PSMT66.531.57.2%2.7%$4.8B
COST66.254.68.2%2.9%$441.9B
PEP65.127.62.3%8.8%$230.9B
COKE64.623.13.7%9.2%$16.7B
PRDO64.013.124.2%18.9%$2.2B
SFD63.811.3-3.4%5.5%$9.6B
OLLI62.531.48.0%8.8%$6.7B
FIZZ61.218.60.8%15.6%$3.5B
DLTR61.023.94.8%5.9%$25.7B
Sector Average51.133.110.6%-3.2%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. offers fresh, natural, and organic food products in the United States. The company offers perishable product categories, including fresh produce, meat, seafood, deli, bakery, floral and dairy, and dairy alternatives; and non-perishable product categories, such as grocery, vitamins and supplements, bulk items, frozen foods, beer and wine, and natural health and body care. As of January 2, 2022, it operated 374 stores in 23 states. Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.

CEO
Jack L. Sinclair
Employees
35,000
Beta
0.77
Industry
Grocery Stores
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
68.4
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-59.4%
High: $182
From 52W Low
+14.1%
Low: $64.75
Moving Averages
10-Day
$70.80
Above
20-Day
$69.20
Above
50-Day
$74.10
Below
200-Day
$116.70
Below
60-Day Support
$64.75
60-Day Resistance
$87.35
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 10/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-36.7%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-16.75%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.32x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Entry & Exit Zones

Avoid
No Entry
โ€”
No entry โ€” active downtrend
Exit Target
โ€”
Exit position if held
Stop Level
โ€”
No stop โ€” exit recommended

Stage 4 downtrend โ€” price is below both SMA50 and SMA200 with a declining 200-day average. Capital preservation takes priority. Do not buy into a downtrend.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$2.1B$2.2B$2.2B$2.2B
Gross Profit$777M$851M$863M$886M
Operating Income$124M$157M$179M$226M
Net Income$90M$120M$134M$180M
EPS (Diluted)$0.92$1.22$1.35$1.81
Gross Margin36.2%38.7%38.8%39.6%
Operating Margin5.8%7.2%8.1%10.1%
Net Margin4.2%5.5%6.0%8.0%

Why This Stock

Consumer DefensiveP/E ratio of 13.4Revenue growth 12.9%Earnings quality grade AValuation below sector median (P/E 13.4)

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 95/100Score impact: -18.9pt

Volume
100
2.5M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$180M/day
Float
98
94M shares
Mkt Cap
72
$7.2B
Range
100
181% spread
Composite Liquidity Score95/100
FDCBA

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
96.6%
Outstanding Shares
97M
Bid-Ask Spread
181.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.