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63

PLMR

๐Ÿฆ Financial Services

Palomar Holdings, Inc.

Conservative #277Aggressive #306Moderate Risk
$123.71+1.53%
Day High$123.97
Day Low$120.44
Volume0.2M
Mkt Cap$3.3B
52W Low $10852W High $176
Market Cap
$3.2B
P/E Ratio
16.2
Sector avg: 26.8
Rev Growth
58.2%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
67.6%
Profit Margin
22.6%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
N/A

Why This Score

PLMR scores 64.1 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 22.8% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • High net margin of 22.6%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.00) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • High conviction (100/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.

Minor adjustments (-2.0 points) applied. PLMR's rank of #277 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score64.1
Fundamental Score64.6
ML Score52.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
76.1
6 Month
85.1
Primary
1 Year
89.6

Quality Assessment

B
Quality Grade
Good quality โ€” solid metrics, minor concerns possible
1 quality flag detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (-286.0%) โ€” earnings quality concern

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
52
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
71
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
68
Grade B
Base
60.1
SHAP
+1.5
Factors
+0.7
Conviction
+1.8
Final
64.1
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

76AVG
Value72
Quality66
Growth100
Stability72
Investment68

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)85.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)65.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)81.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+3.5% to +8.6%
Medium-term
+6.2% to +14.0%
Long-term
+8.8% to +19.5%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 52

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score70.5/100
Target Upside+10.2%
Coverage11 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score51.8/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum+0.0%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-4.7%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.36)
Relative Strength vs Sector-6.2%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.3)
Momentum Quality+0.018
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
2%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P95
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P46
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P82
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.8ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 65 relative to sector peers65/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 52th percentileP52
Blended score: 80% fundamental (65) + 20% ML (52) = 62.162.1
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 34% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade B
SHAP feature alignment: +1.5pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: +1.8pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Risk Factors
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-286.0%) โ€” earnings quality concernFlag
Liquidity penalty: -2.0pt (grade B)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services โ€” Rank #102 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
PLMR64.116.258.2%22.6%$3.2B
CME86.427.29.9%57.5%$114.0B
FHB84.911.83.2%24.2%$3.1B
ACT84.58.92.4%54.6%$6.1B
CINF84.210.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
SEIC82.214.010.7%27.3%$9.9B
TROW79.910.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
QQQX79.710.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
IBOC78.210.67.5%40.1%$4.2B
HWC77.812.2-1.5%24.1%$5.6B
FFIN77.518.811.7%30.7%$4.7B
TRMK77.111.934.8%19.3%$2.6B
NMIH77.17.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
EWBC76.712.74.6%28.3%$15.3B
WSFS76.312.8-3.1%21.1%$3.5B
MCHB76.1N/A123.7%23.2%$3.1B
Sector Average47.526.813.4%-2.8%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Palomar Holdings, Inc., an insurance holding company, provides specialty property insurance to residential and commercial customers. The company offers personal and commercial specialty property insurance products, including residential and commercial earthquake, commercial all risk, specialty homeowners, inland marine, Hawaii hurricane, and residential flood, as well as other products, such as assumed reinsurance, commercial flood, real estate error and omission, and real estate investor products. It markets and distributes its products through retail agents, wholesale brokers, program administrators, and carrier partnerships. The company was formerly known as GC Palomar Holdings. Palomar Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in La Jolla, California.

CEO
D. McDonald Armstrong
Employees
253
Beta
0.46
Industry
Insurance - Property & Casualty
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
43.6
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-29.7%
High: $175.85
From 52W Low
+14.8%
Low: $107.75
Moving Averages
10-Day
$124.30
Below
20-Day
$125.30
Below
50-Day
$128.40
Below
200-Day
$130.90
Below
60-Day Support
$113
60-Day Resistance
$139.5
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 23/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-5.5%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-2.41%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.35x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
37
Confidence: 90%

Entry & Exit Zones

Avoid
No Entry
โ€”
No entry โ€” active downtrend
Exit Target
โ€”
Exit position if held
Stop Level
โ€”
No stop โ€” exit recommended

Stage 4 downtrend โ€” price is below both SMA50 and SMA200 with a declining 200-day average. Capital preservation takes priority. Do not buy into a downtrend.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$253M$245M$201M$175M
Gross Profit$183M$116M$103M$89M
Operating Income$73M$67M$60M$54M
Net Income$56M$51M$47M$43M
EPS (Diluted)$2.06$1.87$1.68$1.57
Gross Margin72.0%47.2%51.3%51.2%
Operating Margin28.7%27.4%29.8%30.8%
Net Margin22.2%21.0%23.1%24.6%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 16.2Revenue growth 58.2%Profit margin 22.6%

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 68/100Score impact: +5.3pt

Volume
55
246K avg/day
Dollar Vol
86
$30M/day
Float
56
26M shares
Mkt Cap
63
$3.2B
Range
92
63% spread
Composite Liquidity Score68/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$60.10$97.1847.2%Wide
2022$43.64$95.2074.3%Wide
2023$45.29$64.4134.9%Moderate
2024$54.50$112.9069.8%Wide
2025$98.42$175.8556.5%Wide
3-Year Range
118.1%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
97.6%
Outstanding Shares
27M
Bid-Ask Spread
63.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.