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LILA

๐Ÿ“ก Communication Services

Liberty Latin America Ltd.

Conservative #1024Aggressive #1020Moderate RiskMixed 44MLโ†‘ 28pt
$7.79-3.71%
Day High$8.06
Day Low$7.67
Volume0.6M
Mkt Cap$1.6B
52W Low $452W High $9
Market Cap
$1.6B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
-0.3%
Sector avg: 15.8%
Earnings Growth
7.0%
Profit Margin
-13.8%
Sector avg: -116.3%
Debt/Equity
16.60

Why This Score

LILA scores 33.2 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Positive but moderate momentum (14%) โ€” steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (12.1%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 16.60) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Moderate penalties (-3.5 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score33.2
Fundamental Score34.1
ML Score28.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
68.7
6 Month
76.8
Primary
1 Year
80.8

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 16.6x โ€” balance sheet risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
48
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
62
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
63
Grade Blow dollar volume
Base
33.2
SHAP
+1.8
Factors
+1.4
Conviction
-0.6
Divergence
-2.7
Final
33.2
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)37.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)52.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)52.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-5.3% to +1.3%
Medium-term
-7.9% to +1.9%
Long-term
-10.5% to +2.5%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 28

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score61.7/100
Target Upside-1.2%
Coverage15 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score48.2/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum-0.0%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+18.3%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.30)
Relative Strength vs Sector+14.0%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (1.2)
Momentum Quality+0.109
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
43%
High risk โ€” cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P27
Revenue growth vs Communication Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P73
Valuation vs Communication Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P82
Free cash flow vs Communication Services peers
Growth Deviation
-0.1ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 53 relative to sector peers53/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 81th percentileP81
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.8pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (52.9) + 9% ML (78.5) + SHAP(+1.8) = 57.0โ€”
Factor quality: +1.4pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 12.1%. Max drawdown 22% (-5.8 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.6B market cap)-8.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -0.6pt (conviction=44)โ€”
Divergence penalty: -2.7pt (ML 28pt higher)โ€”
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -14 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (176.0%) โ€” earnings quality concern; Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 16.6x โ€” balance sheet riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Communication Services โ€” Rank #43 of 60 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
LILA33.2N/A-0.3%-13.8%$1.6B
GOOGL82.828.315.1%32.8%$3.7T
EA75.175.1-1.3%15.0%$50.2B
MTCH74.512.83.4%15.8%$7.3B
META72.027.222.2%30.1%$1.6T
TIGO69.810.12.5%4.4%$11.0B
BZ65.521.923.6%21.5%$8.1B
NXST65.214.49.6%13.4%$7.0B
SIRI63.69.5-1.6%9.4%$7.2B
CMCSA63.65.9-0.0%16.2%$115.0B
JOYY60.91.9-1.3%83.2%$3.3B
EVER60.610.473.7%8.4%$566M
NFLX59.630.415.9%24.3%$326.1B
TMUS59.322.68.5%12.4%$245.5B
NWS56.712.62.4%12.2%$14.7B
WMG56.451.74.4%5.4%$15.4B
Sector Average43.5120.615.8%-116.3%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy15 analysts
Buy: 9Hold: 4Sell: 2
Price Target
$8consensus
Low $8Median $8High $8
+2.7% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Liberty Latin America Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides fixed, mobile, and subsea telecommunications services. The company operates through C&W Caribbean and Networks, C&W Panama, Liberty Puerto Rico, VTR, and Costa Rica segments. It offers communications and entertainment services, including video, broadband internet, fixed-line telephony, and mobile services to residential and business customers; and business products and services that include enterprise-grade connectivity, data center, hosting, and managed solutions, as well as information technology solutions for small and medium enterprises, international companies, and governmental agencies. The company also operates a sub-sea and terrestrial fiber optic cable network that connects approximately 40 markets. It provides its services in approximately 20 countries in Latin America, the Caribbean, Chile, and Costa Rica under the brands of C&W, VTR, Liberty Puerto Rico, Cabletica, BTC, UTS, Flow, and Mรณvil. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is based in Hamilton, Bermuda.

CEO
Balan Nair
Employees
10,000
Beta
1.01
Industry
Telecommunications Services
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
50.8
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-13.8%
High: $9.04
From 52W Low
+83.3%
Low: $4.25
Moving Averages
10-Day
$7.90
Below
20-Day
$7.90
Below
50-Day
$7.70
Above
200-Day
$7.30
Above
60-Day Support
$6.74
60-Day Resistance
$9.04
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 55/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+6.7%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+7.19%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.03x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
32
Confidence: 90%
Key Reversal Detected (2026-02-12)

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$1.2B$1.1B$1.1B$1.1B
Gross Profit$651M$865M$738M$851M
Operating Income$192M$188M$-333M$128M
Net Income$-55M$3M$-423M$-136M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.27$0.02$-2.12$-0.69
Gross Margin56.2%77.7%67.9%78.5%
Operating Margin16.6%16.9%-30.6%11.8%
Net Margin-4.7%0.3%-39.0%-12.6%

Why This Stock

Communication ServicesValuation below sector median

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 63/100Score impact: -2.4pt

Volume
66
358K avg/day
Dollar Vol
23
$3M/day
Float
100
164M shares
Mkt Cap
52
$1.6B
Range
100
112% spread
Composite Liquidity Score63/100
FDCBA
low dollar volume

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$10.62$14.7932.8%Moderate
2022$5.90$12.3770.8%Wide
2023$6.36$10.0144.6%Wide
2024$5.90$10.8258.9%Wide
2025$4.25$9.0472.1%Wide
3-Year Range
87.2%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.11x dampening
weinstein decliningslight revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
82.0%
Outstanding Shares
200M
Bid-Ask Spread
112.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.