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KDP

🛒 Consumer Defensive

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.

Conservative #388Aggressive #527Low Risk
$30.28-0.16%
Day High$30.64
Day Low$30.21
Volume13.2M
Mkt Cap$41.1B
52W Low $2552W High $36
Market Cap
$40.3B
P/E Ratio
25.6
Sector avg: 33.1
Rev Growth
3.6%
Sector avg: 10.6%
Earnings Growth
-33.9%
Profit Margin
9.4%
Sector avg: -3.2%
Debt/Equity
0.71

Why This Score

KDP scores 59.0 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High conviction (76/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.

Minor adjustments (-3.0 points) applied. KDP's rank of #388 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score59.0
Fundamental Score51.0
ML Score86.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
65.2
6 Month
72.8
Primary
1 Year
76.7

Quality Assessment

B
Quality Grade
Good quality — solid metrics, minor concerns possible

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
44
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
63
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
97
Grade A
Base
58.0
SHAP
+3.0
Factors
+1.1
Divergence
-3.0
Final
59.0
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

58AVG
Value55
Quality70
Growth35
Stability60
Investment70

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)41.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)56.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)77.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-1.0% to +3.1%
Medium-term
-1.0% to +5.3%
Long-term
-0.9% to +7.6%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 86

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score63.4/100
Target Upside+7.0%
Coverage28 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score43.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum-0.1%
6M Momentum+0.0%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-12.5%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.44)
Relative Strength vs Sector-18.0%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (1.4)
Momentum Quality-0.064
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
12%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P35
Revenue growth vs Consumer Defensive peers
Sector PE Rank
P33
Valuation vs Consumer Defensive peers
Sector FCF Rank
P56
Free cash flow vs Consumer Defensive peers
Growth Deviation
-0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 51 relative to sector peers51/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 86th percentileP86
Blended score: 80% fundamental (51) + 20% ML (86) = 58.058.0
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 26% → 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade B
SHAP feature alignment: +3.0pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Divergence penalty: -3.0pt (ML 35pt higher)Divergence
Risk Factors

No risk factors identified.

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Defensive — Rank #20 of 55 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
KDP59.025.63.6%9.4%$40.3B
MNST84.446.34.9%20.1%$84.6B
COCO77.443.118.2%11.7%$3.3B
CALM76.73.583.2%27.4%$4.1B
LAUR76.325.85.5%18.9%$4.9B
WMT71.546.75.1%2.9%$1.0T
CCEP68.925.111.7%6.9%$49.7B
PSMT66.531.57.2%2.7%$4.8B
COST66.254.68.2%2.9%$441.9B
PEP65.127.62.3%8.8%$230.9B
COKE64.623.13.7%9.2%$16.7B
PRDO64.013.124.2%18.9%$2.2B
SFD63.811.3-3.4%5.5%$9.6B
OLLI62.531.48.0%8.8%$6.7B
FIZZ61.218.60.8%15.6%$3.5B
DLTR61.023.94.8%5.9%$25.7B
Sector Average51.133.110.6%-3.2%—

Company Overviewvia FMP

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. operates as a beverage company in the United States and internationally. It operates through Coffee Systems, Packaged Beverages, Beverage Concentrates, and Latin America Beverages segments. The Coffee Systems segment manufactures and distributes various finished goods related to its coffee systems, K-Cup pods, and brewers, as well as specialty coffee. This segment sells its brewers through third-party distributors and retail partners, as well as through its website at keurig.com. The Packaged Beverages segment engages in the manufacture and distribution of packaged beverages of its brands; contract manufacturing of various private label and emerging brand beverages; and distribution of packaged beverages for its partner brands. The Beverage Concentrates segment manufactures and sells beverage concentrates primarily under the Dr Pepper, Canada Dry, A&W, 7UP, Sunkist, Squirt, Big Red, RC Cola, Vernors, Snapple, Mott's, Bai, Hawaiian Punch, Clamato, Yoo-Hoo, Core, ReaLemon, evian, Vita Coco, and Mr and Mrs T mixers brands. This segment also manufactures beverage concentrates into syrup. The Latin America Beverages segment manufactures and distributes carbonated mineral water, flavored carbonated soft drinks, bottled water, and vegetable juice products under the Peñafiel, Clamato, Squirt, Dr Pepper, Crush, and Aguafiel brands. The company serves retailers, bottlers and distributors, restaurants, hotel chains, office coffee distributors, and end-use consumers. Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Burlington, Massachusetts.

CEO
Timothy Cofer
Employees
29,000
Beta
0.35
Industry
Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
67.4
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-16.2%
High: $36.12
From 52W Low
+21%
Low: $25.03
Moving Averages
10-Day
$29.80
Above
20-Day
$29.10
Above
50-Day
$28.30
Above
200-Day
$29.80
Above
60-Day Support
$26.4
60-Day Resistance
$31.5
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 65/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Transition signal: 1→2
Price vs 200 SMA
+1.6%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-5.34%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.05x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
4
Confidence: 50%
Recent Gap Up

Entry & Exit Zones

Above Entry Zone
$27.18
Stop Entry Now Target
$37.20
Entry Zone
$28.02 – $29.15
SMA50 pullback zone ($28.02–$29.15)
Exit Target
$36.12
52-week high / +22% target ($36.12)
Stop Level
$29.20
Below SMA200 ($29.2)

Stage 2 uptrend — institutional accumulation phase. SMA50 pullbacks are the highest-probability entry points. Stop below SMA200 preserves capital if trend breaks.

Technical zones only — derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$4.5B$4.3B$4.2B$3.6B
Gross Profit$2.4B$2.3B$2.3B$2.0B
Operating Income$960M$995M$898M$801M
Net Income$353M$662M$547M$517M
EPS (Diluted)$0.26$0.49$0.40$0.38
Gross Margin53.8%54.3%54.2%54.6%
Operating Margin21.3%23.1%21.6%22.0%
Net Margin7.8%15.4%13.1%14.2%

Why This Stock

Consumer Defensive

Tradability FilterGrade A — 97/100Score impact: -3.5pt

Volume
100
12.0M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$357M/day
Float
100
1.2B shares
Mkt Cap
95
$40.3B
Range
82
44% spread
Composite Liquidity Score97/100
FDCBA

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
89.7%
Outstanding Shares
1.4B
Bid-Ask Spread
44.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.