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44

FSV

๐Ÿ  Real Estate

FirstService Corporation

Conservative #761Aggressive #970Low Risk
$157.57-0.47%
Day High$159.43
Day Low$155.81
Volume0.1M
Mkt Cap$7.2B
52W Low $14752W High $210
Market Cap
$7.1B
P/E Ratio
48.9
Sector avg: 32.3
Rev Growth
5.8%
Sector avg: 15420.2%
Earnings Growth
8.4%
Profit Margin
2.6%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Debt/Equity
1.18

Why This Score

FSV scores 45.1 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High conviction (72/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Elevated valuation at 48.9x earnings โ€” requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.18) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Minor adjustments (-2.0 points) applied. FSV's rank of #761 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score45.1
Fundamental Score44.4
ML Score38.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
63.0
6 Month
70.5
Primary
1 Year
74.2

Quality Assessment

D
Quality Grade
Below average quality โ€” weak profitability or high leverage
1 quality flag detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (-209.1%) โ€” earnings quality concern

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
54
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
66
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
72
Grade B
Base
41.1
SHAP
+3.0
Factors
+1.1
Final
45.1
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

52AVG
Value35
Quality36
Growth52
Stability64
Investment74

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)40.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)51.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)80.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-1.3% to +2.8%
Medium-term
-1.4% to +4.8%
Long-term
-1.5% to +6.9%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 38

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score65.6/100
Target Upside+36.5%
Coverage8 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score54.3/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum-0.1%
6M Momentum-0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+11.1%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.51)
Relative Strength vs Sector-15.3%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (1.8)
Momentum Quality-0.091
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
2%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P42
Revenue growth vs Real Estate peers
Sector PE Rank
P8
Valuation vs Real Estate peers
Sector FCF Rank
P42
Free cash flow vs Real Estate peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 44 relative to sector peers44/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 38th percentileP38
Blended score: 80% fundamental (44) + 20% ML (38) = 43.143.1
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 23% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade D
SHAP feature alignment: +3.0pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Risk Factors
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-209.1%) โ€” earnings quality concernFlag
Liquidity penalty: -2.0pt (grade B)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Real Estate โ€” Rank #17 of 27 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
FSV45.148.95.8%2.6%$7.1B
AGNC80.67.5-60.8%87.0%$12.4B
SBAC76.825.3-1.2%28.0%$21.0B
GLPI76.016.66.3%51.2%$13.9B
REG74.227.16.9%34.0%$14.4B
LAMR72.131.04.6%16.4%$13.9B
HST71.718.87.0%12.3%$13.7B
SBRA69.731.510.2%20.1%$5.3B
ADAM66.04.912.0%19.9%$754M
PECO65.644.110.7%15.3%$5.0B
LAND64.340.1-5.7%14.5%$457M
EQIX62.569.45.4%14.6%$93.6B
DRH61.131.95.1%5.7%$2.1B
GOOD54.130.78.0%12.0%$613M
RMR53.911.8-22.0%3.5%$525M
FISV47.89.47.1%15.3%$33.3B
Sector Average50.932.315420.2%6.3%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy8 analysts
Buy: 5Hold: 3
Price Target
$210consensus
Low $202Median $210High $217
+33.0% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

FirstService Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides residential property management and other essential property services to residential and commercial customers in the United States and Canada. The company operates in two segments, FirstService Residential and FirstService Brands. The FirstService Residential segment offers property management services for private residential communities, such as condominiums, co-operatives, homeowner associations, master-planned communities, active adult and lifestyle communities, and various other residential developments. This segment also provides a range of ancillary services, including on-site staffing for building engineering and maintenance, full-service swimming pool and amenity management, and security and concierge/front desk; and financial services comprising cash management, other banking transaction-related, and specialized property insurance brokerage. In addition, this segment offers energy management solutions and advisory services, and resale processing services. The FirstService Brands segment operates and provides essential property services to residential and commercial customers, through five franchise networks; and company-owned locations, including 20 California Closets, 12 Paul Davis Restoration, and 1 CertaPro Painters locations. It provides residential and commercial restoration, painting, and floor coverings design and installation services; custom-designed and installed closet, and home storage solutions; home inspection services; and fire protection and related services. This segment offers its services primarily under the Paul Davis Restoration, First Onsite Restoration, Century Fire Protection, CertaPro Painters, California Closets, Pillar to Post Home Inspectors, and Floor Coverings International brand names. FirstService Corporation was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

CEO
D. Scott Patterson
Employees
30,000
Beta
0.93
Industry
Real Estate - Services
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
45.7
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-24.8%
High: $209.66
From 52W Low
+7%
Low: $147.23
Moving Averages
10-Day
$155.50
Above
20-Day
$156.90
Above
50-Day
$157.10
Above
200-Day
$173.70
Below
60-Day Support
$147.23
60-Day Resistance
$166.73
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 21/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-9.3%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-2.45%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.05x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
87
Confidence: 90%

Entry & Exit Zones

Avoid
No Entry
โ€”
No entry โ€” active downtrend
Exit Target
โ€”
Exit position if held
Stop Level
โ€”
No stop โ€” exit recommended

Stage 4 downtrend โ€” price is below both SMA50 and SMA200 with a declining 200-day average. Capital preservation takes priority. Do not buy into a downtrend.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$1.4B$1.4B$1.4B$1.3B
Gross Profit$377M$487M$480M$409M
Operating Income$84M$116M$97M$39M
Net Income$40M$57M$46M$3M
EPS (Diluted)$0.85$1.24$1.01$0.06
Gross Margin26.9%33.7%33.9%32.7%
Operating Margin5.9%8.0%6.9%3.1%
Net Margin2.8%3.9%3.3%0.2%

Why This Stock

Real EstateValuation below sector median (P/E 48.9)

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 72/100Score impact: +1.1pt

Volume
53
228K avg/day
Dollar Vol
90
$35M/day
Float
72
42M shares
Mkt Cap
72
$7.1B
Range
81
42% spread
Composite Liquidity Score72/100
FDCBA

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
91.7%
Outstanding Shares
46M
Bid-Ask Spread
42.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.