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65

ADAM

🏠 Real Estate

Adamas Trust, Inc.

Conservative #205Aggressive #96Low RiskLow 26ML↑ 22pt
$8.15+1.62%
Day High$8.17
Day Low$8.01
Volume0.8M
Mkt Cap$736M
52W Low $552W High $9
Market Cap
$735M
P/E Ratio
4.9
Sector avg: 68.2
Rev Growth
12.0%
Sector avg: 14869.7%
Earnings Growth
340.3%
Profit Margin
19.9%
Sector avg: 5.3%
Debt/Equity
7.71

Why This Score

ADAM scores 64.7 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Attractively valued at 4.9x earnings, below the market average.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (32%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 7.71) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Minor adjustments (-2.0 points) applied. ADAM's rank of #205 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score64.7
Fundamental Score60.6
ML Score71.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
69.3
6 Month
77.5
Primary
1 Year
81.5

Quality Assessment

F
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns
Quality Flags
Low FCF/NI ratio (0.21) with 19.9% net margin — reported earnings may not be cash-backed
Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 7.7x — balance sheet risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
57
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
67
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
73
Grade B
Base
62.5
SHAP
+3.3
Factors
+0.7
Divergence
-1.8
Final
64.7
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)64.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)85.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)69.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+1.3% to +5.8%
Medium-term
+2.8% to +9.8%
Long-term
+4.4% to +13.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 71

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score66.7/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage3 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score57.4/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.3%
6M Momentum+0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+11.5%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.64)
Relative Strength vs Sector+28.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (4.0)
Momentum Quality+0.298
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
5%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P93
Revenue growth vs Real Estate peers
Sector PE Rank
P70
Valuation vs Real Estate peers
Sector FCF Rank
P93
Free cash flow vs Real Estate peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 60 relative to sector peers60/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 82th percentileP82
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +5.0pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (59.5) + 9% ML (81.6) + SHAP(+5.0) = 66.5—
Factor quality: +1.1pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 8.0%Low
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($0.7B market cap)-15.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -2.3pt (conviction=26)—
Divergence penalty: -1.8pt (ML 22pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade F: assessed. Score adjusted by -30 pointsGrade F
Quality concern: Earnings growth (340%) massively exceeds revenue growth (12.0%) — earnings spike likely non-recurring; Earnings/revenue growth ratio of 28x — earnings quality suspect; Low FCF/NI ratio (0.21) with 19.9% net margin — reported earnings may not be cash-backedFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Real Estate — Rank #8 of 28 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ADAM64.74.912.0%19.9%$735M
AGNC80.27.5-60.8%87.0%$12.3B
SBAC76.325.3-1.2%28.0%$21.4B
GLPI75.116.66.3%51.2%$13.1B
REG73.627.16.9%34.0%$14.2B
HST71.018.87.0%12.3%$13.9B
LAMR70.531.04.6%16.4%$13.3B
SBRA69.231.510.2%20.1%$5.1B
LAND64.240.1-5.7%14.5%$407M
EQIX61.969.45.4%14.6%$94.0B
PECO57.644.110.7%15.3%$4.9B
DRH55.131.95.1%5.7%$2.0B
RMR53.311.8-22.0%3.5%$526M
GOOD52.430.78.0%12.0%$607M
FISV47.79.47.1%15.3%$32.3B
EXPI44.7N/A6.9%-0.4%$1.2B
Sector Average47.468.214869.7%5.3%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy4 analysts
Buy: 2Hold: 2

Company Overviewvia FMP

Adamas Trust, Inc. acquires, invests in, finances, and manages mortgage-related single-family and multi-family residential assets in the United States. The company's targeted residential loans, including business purpose loans; agency RMBS; non-agency residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS); structured multi-family property investments, such as preferred equity in, and mezzanine loans to owners of multi-family properties; and other mortgage-, residential housing- and credit-related assets and strategic investments; and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS). It also owns and manages single-family rental properties. The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. It generally would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. Adamas Trust, Inc. was formerly known as New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. and changed its name to Adamas Trust, Inc. in September 2025. Adamas Trust, Inc. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

CEO
Steven R. Mumma
Employees
70
Beta
1.17
Industry
REIT - Mortgage
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
53.0
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-7%
High: $8.76
From 52W Low
+62.7%
Low: $5.01
Moving Averages
10-Day
$8.10
Above
20-Day
$8.10
Above
50-Day
$7.90
Above
200-Day
$7.20
Above
60-Day Support
$7.02
60-Day Resistance
$8.76
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 74/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+13.2%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+6.58%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.98x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
79
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$179M$227M$157M$187M
Gross Profit$147M$102M$52M$91M
Operating Income$176M$39M$4M$38M
Net Income$54M$45M$9M$42M
EPS (Diluted)$0.45$0.36$-0.04$0.33
Gross Margin82.5%45.2%33.4%48.4%
Operating Margin98.4%17.4%2.7%20.1%
Net Margin29.9%19.8%5.4%22.5%

Why This Stock

Real EstateP/E ratio of 4.9Revenue growth 12.0%Profit margin 19.9%

Tradability FilterGrade B — 73/100Score impact: -6.6pt

Volume
88
695K avg/day
Dollar Vol
51
$6M/day
Float
94
84M shares
Mkt Cap
34
$735M
Range
97
75% spread
Composite Liquidity Score73/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$14.04$19.7233.6%Moderate
2022$8.28$15.5661.1%Wide
2023$7.23$12.9656.8%Wide
2024$5.14$8.6150.5%Wide
2025$5.01$7.7542.9%Wide
3-Year Range
88.5%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
93.5%
Outstanding Shares
90M
Bid-Ask Spread
75.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.