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56

PECO

🏠 Real Estate

Phillips Edison & Company, Inc.

Conservative #361Aggressive #646Low RiskModerate 64
$39.20+0.69%
Day High$39.22
Day Low$38.73
Volume0.5M
Mkt Cap$4.9B
52W Low $3252W High $39
Market Cap
$4.9B
P/E Ratio
44.1
Sector avg: 68.2
Rev Growth
10.7%
Sector avg: 14869.7%
Earnings Growth
77.6%
Profit Margin
15.3%
Sector avg: 5.3%
Debt/Equity
1.09

Why This Score

PECO scores 57.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Low volatility (3.3% annualized) — well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated valuation at 44.1x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.09) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Moderate penalties (-5.5 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score57.6
Fundamental Score66.2
ML Score31.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
77.3
6 Month
86.4
Primary
1 Year
91.0

Quality Assessment

D
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
20
Topping
Sentiment (2.5%)
46
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
62
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
83
Grade Arange bound
Base
56.6
SHAP
+3.2
Factors
+0.8
Divergence
-3.0
Final
57.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)61.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)80.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)77.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+1.7% to +6.4%
Medium-term
+3.3% to +10.3%
Long-term
+4.8% to +14.2%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 31

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score61.5/100
Target Upside+0.5%
Coverage13 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score46.0/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage3 — Topping
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.0%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-4.1%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.61)
Relative Strength vs Sector+3.0%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.0)
Momentum Quality+0.060
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P81
Revenue growth vs Real Estate peers
Sector PE Rank
P15
Valuation vs Real Estate peers
Sector FCF Rank
P41
Free cash flow vs Real Estate peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 67 relative to sector peers67/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 77th percentileP77
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +5.0pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (66.8) + 9% ML (77.2) + SHAP(+5.0) = 72.8
Factor quality: +1.2pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 3.3%. Stability bonus of +12.0 pointsLow
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($4.9B market cap)+0.5 pts
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by -17 pointsGrade D
Quality concern: Non-operating loss: operating margin (46.1%) exceeds net margin (15.3%) by 31pp — possible write-down; High accrual ratio (-183.1%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Real Estate — Rank #11 of 28 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
PECO57.644.110.7%15.3%$4.9B
AGNC80.27.5-60.8%87.0%$12.3B
SBAC76.325.3-1.2%28.0%$21.4B
GLPI75.116.66.3%51.2%$13.1B
REG73.627.16.9%34.0%$14.2B
HST71.018.87.0%12.3%$13.9B
LAMR70.531.04.6%16.4%$13.3B
SBRA69.231.510.2%20.1%$5.1B
ADAM64.74.912.0%19.9%$735M
LAND64.240.1-5.7%14.5%$407M
EQIX61.969.45.4%14.6%$94.0B
DRH55.131.95.1%5.7%$2.0B
RMR53.311.8-22.0%3.5%$526M
GOOD52.430.78.0%12.0%$607M
FISV47.79.47.1%15.3%$32.3B
EXPI44.7N/A6.9%-0.4%$1.2B
Sector Average47.468.214869.7%5.3%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold13 analysts
Buy: 6Hold: 7
Price Target
$39consensus
Low $37Median $39High $42
+0.5% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Phillips Edison & Company, Inc. (PECO), an internally-managed REIT, is one of the nation's largest owners and operators of grocery-anchored shopping centers. PECO's diversified portfolio of well-occupied neighborhood shopping centers features a mix of national and regional retailers selling necessity-based goods and services in fundamentally strong markets throughout the United States. Through its vertically-integrated operating platform, the Company manages a portfolio of 309 properties, including 283 wholly-owned properties comprising approximately 31.7 million square feet across 31 states (as of September 30, 2020). PECO has generated strong operating results over its 29+ year history and has partnered with leading institutional commercial real estate investors, including TPG Real Estate and The Northwestern Mutual Life Insurance Company. The Company remains exclusively focused on creating great grocery-anchored shopping experiences and improving the communities it serves one center at a time.

CEO
Jeffrey S. Edison
Employees
300
Beta
0.57
Industry
REIT - Retail
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
72.1
Overbought
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-1.3%
High: $39.71
From 52W Low
+21%
Low: $32.4
Moving Averages
10-Day
$38.50
Above
20-Day
$37.70
Above
50-Day
$36.40
Above
200-Day
$35.20
Above
60-Day Support
$34.49
60-Day Resistance
$39.71
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 3 — ToppingScore: 28/100

Stock is losing momentum near highs. The 200-day SMA is flattening or beginning to turn. Historically, this stage precedes distribution.

Exercise caution; tighten risk management
Price vs 200 SMA
+11.4%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+0.42%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
1.01x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
29
Confidence: 70%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$188M$183M$178M$178M
Gross Profit$132M$130M$127M$127M
Operating Income$53M$52M$114M$115M
Net Income$48M$25M$13M$26M
EPS (Diluted)$0.38$0.20$0.09$0.21
Gross Margin70.4%71.3%71.5%71.4%
Operating Margin28.4%28.4%64.3%64.6%
Net Margin25.3%13.5%7.2%14.8%

Why This Stock

Real EstateRevenue growth 10.7%Profit margin 15.3%

Tradability FilterGrade A — 83/100Score impact: +1.6pt

Volume
96
905K avg/day
Dollar Vol
90
$35M/day
Float
100
125M shares
Mkt Cap
67
$4.9B
Range
10
23% spread
Composite Liquidity Score83/100
FDCBA
range bound

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Range-BoundSideways: 49/100
Range-Bound Stock

This stock has traded in a compressed range for 3 of the last 5 years (3-year range: 36.1%). Range-bound stocks may indicate limited upside potential. A -2.5pt penalty has been applied.

YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$17.25$34.9767.9%Wide
2022$27.07$36.3529.3%Moderate
2023$27.85$37.9230.6%Moderate
2024$30.62$40.1226.9%Moderate
2025$32.40$37.7615.3%Narrow
3-Year Range
36.1%
Narrow Years
3 / 5
Sideways Penalty
-2.5pt

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
range bound

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
99.4%
Outstanding Shares
126M
Bid-Ask Spread
23.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.