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52

GOOD

🏠 Real Estate

Gladstone Commercial Corporation

Conservative #498Aggressive #716Low RiskHigh 91
$12.48-0.24%
Day High$12.60
Day Low$12.36
Volume0.5M
Mkt Cap$604M
52W Low $1052W High $16
Market Cap
$607M
P/E Ratio
30.7
Sector avg: 68.2
Rev Growth
8.0%
Sector avg: 14869.7%
Earnings Growth
-19.6%
Profit Margin
12.0%
Sector avg: 5.3%
Debt/Equity
2.51

Why This Score

GOOD scores 52.4 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Low volatility (5.2% annualized) — well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • High conviction (91/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 2.51) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Minor adjustments (-2.0 points) applied. GOOD's rank of #498 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score52.4
Fundamental Score49.8
ML Score53.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
56.6
6 Month
63.3
Primary
1 Year
66.6

Quality Assessment

C
Earnings Grade
Mixed fundamentals, potential quality issues
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (-357.9%) — earnings quality concern

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
38
Negative
Analyst (6.4%)
66
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
66
Grade B
Base
48.4
SHAP
+2.0
Factors
+0.4
Conviction
+1.6
Final
52.4
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)45.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)52.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)76.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-3.8% to +0.5%
Medium-term
-5.4% to +0.9%
Long-term
-7.1% to +1.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 53

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score66.1/100
Target Upside+1.4%
Coverage14 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score37.8/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.2%
6M Momentum-0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-12.4%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.41)
Relative Strength vs Sector-24.6%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (4.0)
Momentum Quality-0.161
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
9%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P74
Revenue growth vs Real Estate peers
Sector PE Rank
P37
Valuation vs Real Estate peers
Sector FCF Rank
P89
Free cash flow vs Real Estate peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 62 relative to sector peers62/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 66th percentileP66
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.1pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (61.5) + 9% ML (66.2) + SHAP(+3.1) = 65.0
Factor quality: +0.6pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 5.2%. Stability bonus of +11.5 points. Max drawdown 24% (-6.3 pts). Price momentum -21% (-3.2 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($0.6B market cap)-15.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +2.5pt (conviction=91)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by -19 pointsGrade C
Quality concern: Non-operating loss: operating margin (37.2%) exceeds net margin (12.0%) by 25pp — possible write-down; High accrual ratio (-357.9%) — earnings quality concern; High leverage: D/E ratio of 2.5x — elevated balance sheet riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Real Estate — Rank #14 of 28 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
GOOD52.430.78.0%12.0%$607M
AGNC80.27.5-60.8%87.0%$12.3B
SBAC76.325.3-1.2%28.0%$21.4B
GLPI75.116.66.3%51.2%$13.1B
REG73.627.16.9%34.0%$14.2B
HST71.018.87.0%12.3%$13.9B
LAMR70.531.04.6%16.4%$13.3B
SBRA69.231.510.2%20.1%$5.1B
ADAM64.74.912.0%19.9%$735M
LAND64.240.1-5.7%14.5%$407M
EQIX61.969.45.4%14.6%$94.0B
PECO57.644.110.7%15.3%$4.9B
DRH55.131.95.1%5.7%$2.0B
RMR53.311.8-22.0%3.5%$526M
FISV47.79.47.1%15.3%$32.3B
EXPI44.7N/A6.9%-0.4%$1.2B
Sector Average47.468.214869.7%5.3%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy14 analysts
Buy: 9Hold: 5
Price Target
$13consensus
Low $13Median $13High $13
+4.2% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Gladstone Commercial Corporation is a real estate investment trust focused on acquiring, owning, and operating net leased industrial and office properties across the United States. Including payments through September 2020, Gladstone Commercial has paid 189 consecutive monthly cash distributions on its common stock. Prior to paying distributions on a monthly basis, Gladstone Commercial paid five consecutive quarterly cash distributions. The company has also paid 53 consecutive monthly cash distributions on its Series D Preferred Stock, 12 consecutive monthly cash distributions on its Series E Preferred Stock and three consecutive monthly cash distributions on its Series F Preferred Stock. Gladstone Commercial has never skipped, reduced or deferred a distribution since its inception in 2003.

CEO
David John Gladstone
Employees
69
Beta
1.10
Industry
REIT - Diversified
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
65.4
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-23.9%
High: $16.4
From 52W Low
+20.8%
Low: $10.33
Moving Averages
10-Day
$12.00
Above
20-Day
$11.80
Above
50-Day
$11.30
Above
200-Day
$12.50
Below
60-Day Support
$10.33
60-Day Resistance
$12.98
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 22/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-0.2%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-7.86%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.24x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
0
Confidence: 90%
Recent Gap Up

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$43M$41M$40M$38M
Gross Profit$-82M$32M$31M$29M
Operating Income$19M$14M$14M$14M
Net Income$5M$4M$5M$5M
EPS (Diluted)$0.32$0.02$0.03$0.04
Gross Margin-188.3%77.7%77.5%77.4%
Operating Margin42.6%34.6%34.6%36.4%
Net Margin12.4%10.1%11.7%13.7%

Why This Stock

Real EstateProfit margin 12.0%

Tradability FilterGrade B — 66/100Score impact: -2.8pt

Volume
80
496K avg/day
Dollar Vol
53
$6M/day
Float
78
48M shares
Mkt Cap
32
$607M
Range
89
59% spread
Composite Liquidity Score66/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$18.64$25.9032.6%Moderate
2022$15.02$26.1354%Wide
2023$10.84$19.5257.2%Wide
2024$11.89$17.8840.2%Wide
2025$10.33$16.6346.7%Wide
3-Year Range
61.6%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
98.8%
Outstanding Shares
48M
Bid-Ask Spread
59.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.