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EWCZ

๐Ÿ›’ Consumer Defensive

European Wax Center, Inc.

Conservative #999Aggressive #960High Risk
$5.72-0.17%
Day High$5.73
Day Low$5.72
Volume0.2M
Mkt Cap$313M
52W Low $352W High $7
Market Cap
$313M
P/E Ratio
22.1
Sector avg: 33.1
Rev Growth
-1.9%
Sector avg: 10.6%
Earnings Growth
20.2%
Profit Margin
5.3%
Sector avg: -3.2%
Debt/Equity
4.89

Why This Score

EWCZ scores 34.5 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 15.5% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • High conviction (81/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (26.8%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 4.89) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Moderate penalties (-5.2 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score34.5
Fundamental Score37.4
ML Score28.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
64.8
6 Month
72.5
Primary
1 Year
76.3

Quality Assessment

C
Quality Grade
Average quality โ€” moderate profitability or leverage
2 quality flags detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (-276.5%) โ€” earnings quality concern
Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 4.9x โ€” balance sheet risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
3%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
20
Topping
Sentiment (2.5%)
36
Negative
Analyst (6.4%)
53
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
60
Grade Blow dollar volume, small cap
Base
33.5
SHAP
-1.6
Factors
+1.3
Conviction
+1.3
Final
34.5
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

54AVG
Value67
Quality49
Growth53
Stability37
Investment66

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)48.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)49.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)72.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-1.5% to +4.8%
Medium-term
-1.9% to +7.8%
Long-term
-2.2% to +10.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 28

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score53.1/100
Target Upside+1.7%
Coverage8 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score36.1/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage3 โ€” Topping
12M Momentum-0.1%
6M Momentum+0.3%
Volatility+0.3%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-45.3%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.37)
Relative Strength vs Sector-21.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.5)
Momentum Quality-0.078
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
37%
High risk โ€” cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P20
Revenue growth vs Consumer Defensive peers
Sector PE Rank
P49
Valuation vs Consumer Defensive peers
Sector FCF Rank
P95
Free cash flow vs Consumer Defensive peers
Growth Deviation
-0.3ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 37 relative to sector peers37/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 28th percentileP28
Blended score: 80% fundamental (37) + 20% ML (28) = 35.535.5
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.3%; Drawdown 36% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade C
Conviction adj: +1.3pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Risk Factors
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-276.5%) โ€” earnings quality concern; Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 4.9x โ€” balance sheet riskFlag
Liquidity penalty: -2.0pt (grade B)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Defensive โ€” Rank #48 of 55 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
EWCZ34.522.1-1.9%5.3%$313M
MNST84.446.34.9%20.1%$84.6B
COCO77.443.118.2%11.7%$3.3B
CALM76.73.583.2%27.4%$4.1B
LAUR76.325.85.5%18.9%$4.9B
WMT71.546.75.1%2.9%$1.0T
CCEP68.925.111.7%6.9%$49.7B
PSMT66.531.57.2%2.7%$4.8B
COST66.254.68.2%2.9%$441.9B
PEP65.127.62.3%8.8%$230.9B
COKE64.623.13.7%9.2%$16.7B
PRDO64.013.124.2%18.9%$2.2B
SFD63.811.3-3.4%5.5%$9.6B
OLLI62.531.48.0%8.8%$6.7B
FIZZ61.218.60.8%15.6%$3.5B
DLTR61.023.94.8%5.9%$25.7B
Sector Average51.133.110.6%-3.2%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold8 analysts
Buy: 2Hold: 5Sell: 1
Price Target
$6consensus
Low $6Median $6High $6
+1.4% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

European Wax Center, Inc. operates as the franchisor and operator of out-of-home waxing services in the United States. The company offers body and facial waxing services; and pre- and post-service products, including ingrown hair serums, exfoliating gels, brow shapers, and skin treatments. As of March 26, 2022, it had a portfolio of centers operating in 874 locations across 44 states, including 868 franchised centers and six corporate-owned centers. European Wax Center, Inc. was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Plano, Texas.

CEO
Christopher Daniel Morris
Employees
124
Beta
1.56
Industry
Household & Personal Products
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
96.2
Overbought
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-13.2%
High: $6.59
From 52W Low
+110.3%
Low: $2.72
Moving Averages
10-Day
$5.70
Above
20-Day
$5.10
Above
50-Day
$4.30
Above
200-Day
$4.50
Above
60-Day Support
$3.38
60-Day Resistance
$5.75
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 3 โ€” ToppingScore: 45/100

Stock is losing momentum near highs. The 200-day SMA is flattening or beginning to turn. Historically, this stage precedes distribution.

Exercise caution; tighten risk management
Price vs 200 SMA
+27.1%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-0.64%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
1.09x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
13
Confidence: 70%

Entry & Exit Zones

Avoid RSI overbought
$4.08
Stop Entry Now Target
$5.89
No Entry
โ€”
No new entry โ€” distribution phase
Exit Target
$5.72
Reduce at current price ($5.72)
Stop Level
$4.21
Below SMA50 ($4.21)

Stage 3 distribution โ€” institutional selling pressure is building. Avoid new positions. If already holding, consider reducing and tightening stops below SMA50.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$54M$56M$51M$50M
Gross Profit$35M$37M$38M$37M
Operating Income$14M$14M$11M$13M
Net Income$4M$4M$2M$2M
EPS (Diluted)$0.09$0.09$0.04$0.04
Gross Margin64.0%65.7%74.2%74.3%
Operating Margin25.9%25.2%20.6%25.8%
Net Margin7.0%6.7%3.4%4.0%

Why This Stock

Consumer DefensiveP/E ratio of 22.1Valuation below sector median (P/E 22.1)

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 60/100Score impact: -11.5pt

Volume
90
746K avg/day
Dollar Vol
41
$4M/day
Float
58
28M shares
Mkt Cap
11
$313M
Range
100
148% spread
Composite Liquidity Score60/100
FDCBA
low dollar volumesmall cap

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$18.55$34.6760.6%Wide
2022$12.02$33.3193.9%Wide
2023$11.97$20.7053.4%Wide
2024$4.80$16.07108%Wide
2025$2.72$7.6094.6%Wide
3-Year Range
153.5%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.49x dampening
weinstein basingslight revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
50.4%
Outstanding Shares
55M
Bid-Ask Spread
148.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.