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ALCO

๐Ÿ›’ Consumer Defensive

Alico, Inc.

Conservative #1416Aggressive #1458Low RiskMLโ†‘ 28pt
$41.28-0.51%
Day High$41.53
Day Low$41.15
Volume0.0M
Mkt Cap$316M
52W Low $2752W High $43
Market Cap
$316M
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
-5.5%
Sector avg: 10.6%
Earnings Growth
-2212.9%
Profit Margin
-487.4%
Sector avg: -3.2%
Debt/Equity
0.86

Why This Score

ALCO scores 2.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Low volatility (5.2% annualized) โ€” well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (40%) โ€” steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 25-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.

Net penalties of -38.4 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, ALCO would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score2.6
Fundamental Score42.5
ML Score4.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
51.5
6 Month
57.6
Primary
1 Year
60.6

Quality Assessment

F
Quality Grade
Low quality โ€” significant fundamental weaknesses
1 quality flag detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
False stability: 0.052 vol with only -5.5% revenue growth โ€” stagnation, not safety (declining revenue overrides sector exemption)
Speculative Classification
Speculative growth โ€” negative margins and ROE with momentum-driven price action. High risk of mean reversion.
Conservative score reduced by 3 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
64
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
0
Grade Fvery low volume, low dollar volume
Base
6.8
SHAP
+2.7
Factors
+0.1
Conviction
-3.5
Divergence
-3.5
Final
2.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

41AVG
Value50
Quality0
Growth14
Stability83
Investment57

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)36.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)88.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)85.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-5.8% to +0.9%
Medium-term
-8.4% to +1.5%
Long-term
-11.1% to +2.1%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 4

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside+0.7%
Coverage3 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score63.9/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.4%
6M Momentum+0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+18.9%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.53)
Relative Strength vs Sector+30.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.382
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
27%
Moderate โ€” watch growth
Sector RevGr Rank
P4
Revenue growth vs Consumer Defensive peers
Sector PE Rank
P55
Valuation vs Consumer Defensive peers
Sector FCF Rank
P51
Free cash flow vs Consumer Defensive peers
Growth Deviation
-0.4ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
YES
Below-sector growth + cheap PE
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 43 relative to sector peers43/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 4th percentileP4
Blended score: 80% fundamental (43) + 20% ML (4) = 34.834.8
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 4% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade F: quality flags triggered โ€” see details below. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade F
SHAP feature alignment: +2.7pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: -3.5pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Divergence penalty: -3.5pt (ML 39pt lower)Divergence
Risk Factors
Quality concern: False stability: 0.052 vol with only -5.5% revenue growth โ€” stagnation, not safety (declining revenue overrides sector exemption)Flag
Speculative: SPEC_GROWTH (3.0pt penalty)Speculative
Liquidity penalty: -25.0pt (grade F)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Defensive โ€” Rank #54 of 55 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ALCO2.6N/A-5.5%-487.4%$316M
MNST84.446.34.9%20.1%$84.6B
COCO77.443.118.2%11.7%$3.3B
CALM76.73.583.2%27.4%$4.1B
LAUR76.325.85.5%18.9%$4.9B
WMT71.546.75.1%2.9%$1.0T
CCEP68.925.111.7%6.9%$49.7B
PSMT66.531.57.2%2.7%$4.8B
COST66.254.68.2%2.9%$441.9B
PEP65.127.62.3%8.8%$230.9B
COKE64.623.13.7%9.2%$16.7B
PRDO64.013.124.2%18.9%$2.2B
SFD63.811.3-3.4%5.5%$9.6B
OLLI62.531.48.0%8.8%$6.7B
FIZZ61.218.60.8%15.6%$3.5B
DLTR61.023.94.8%5.9%$25.7B
Sector Average51.133.110.6%-3.2%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Alico, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an agribusiness and land management company in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Alico Citrus, and Land Management and Other Operations. The Alico Citrus segment cultivates citrus trees to produce citrus for delivery to the processed and fresh citrus markets. The Land Management and Other Operations segment owns and manages land in Collier, Glades, and Hendry Counties; and leasing of land for recreational and grazing purposes, conservation, and mining activities. As of September 30, 2021, it had 83,000 acres of land situated in eight counties in Florida, which include the Charlotte, Collier, DeSoto, Glades, Hardee, Hendry, Highlands, and Polk. The company was founded in 1960 and is headquartered in Fort Myers, Florida.

CEO
John E. Kiernan
Employees
199
Beta
1.05
Industry
Agricultural Farm Products
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
54.4
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-4.4%
High: $43.2
From 52W Low
+52.8%
Low: $27.02
Moving Averages
10-Day
$41.10
Above
20-Day
$41.10
Above
50-Day
$39.20
Above
200-Day
$34.70
Above
60-Day Support
$34.64
60-Day Resistance
$43.2
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 82/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+19%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+9.23%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.9x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
66
Confidence: 90%

Entry & Exit Zones

Above Entry Zone
$32.99
Stop Entry Now Target
$49.76
Entry Zone
$38.81 โ€“ $40.38
SMA50 pullback zone ($38.81โ€“$40.38)
Exit Target
$48.31
52-week high / +22% target ($48.31)
Stop Level
$34.01
Below SMA200 ($34.01)
Risk / Reward:1 : 1.56Tight

Stage 2 uptrend โ€” institutional accumulation phase. SMA50 pullbacks are the highest-probability entry points. Stop below SMA200 preserves capital if trend breaks.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ1 2025Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025
Revenue$2M$802,000$8M$18M
Gross Profit$-6M$-6M$-28M$-150M
Operating Income$-9M$-9M$-31M$-153M
Net Income$-3M$-8M$-18M$-111M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.45$-1.11$-2.39$-14.58
Gross Margin-294.3%-773.4%-334.4%-832.6%
Operating Margin-453.4%-1130.8%-368.6%-851.4%
Net Margin-184.5%-1059.0%-218.0%-619.5%

Why This Stock

Consumer Defensive

Tradability FilterGrade F โ€” 0/100Score impact: -35.3pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor โ€” it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
0
28K avg/day
Dollar Vol
0
$1M/day
Float
0
0K shares
Mkt Cap
0
$316M
Range
0
60% spread
Composite Liquidity Score0/100
FDCBA
very low volumelow dollar volumesmall cap

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 24/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$28.54$38.5829.9%Moderate
2022$23.00$43.6562%Wide
2023$22.58$31.0031.4%Moderate
2024$24.14$30.7524.1%Narrow
2025$25.59$38.4040%Wide
3-Year Range
51.9%
Narrow Years
2 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.35x dampening
revenue declinestagnation flag

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
60.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.