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ERIE

๐Ÿฆ Financial Services

Erie Indemnity Company

Conservative #188Aggressive #376Moderate RiskMLโ†‘ 19pt
$269.44+0.28%
Day High$269.64
Day Low$263.69
Volume0.2M
Mkt Cap$12.4B
52W Low $24752W High $457
Market Cap
$12.3B
P/E Ratio
19.6
Sector avg: 26.8
Rev Growth
16.1%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
34.6%
Profit Margin
15.1%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
N/A

Why This Score

ERIE scores 67.7 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 30.3% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • Low volatility (4.9% annualized) โ€” well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.00) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.

Minor adjustments (-2.0 points) applied. ERIE's rank of #188 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score67.7
Fundamental Score62.9
ML Score77.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
67.3
6 Month
75.2
Primary
1 Year
79.2

Quality Assessment

B
Quality Grade
Good quality โ€” solid metrics, minor concerns possible
1 quality flag detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (-305.6%) โ€” earnings quality concern

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
28
Negative
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
70
Grade Blow volume
Base
63.7
SHAP
+3.0
Factors
+1.1
Final
67.7
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

74AVG
Value60
Quality78
Growth82
Stability76
Investment74

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)79.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)44.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)57.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-1.3% to +2.8%
Medium-term
-1.5% to +4.8%
Long-term
-1.7% to +6.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 77

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score27.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum-0.3%
6M Momentum-0.2%
Volatility+0.0%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-13.2%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.61)
Relative Strength vs Sector-42.6%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality-0.228
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
4%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P76
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P39
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P42
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.2ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 63 relative to sector peers63/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 77th percentileP77
Blended score: 80% fundamental (63) + 20% ML (77) = 65.765.7
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.0%; Drawdown 32% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade B
SHAP feature alignment: +3.0pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Risk Factors
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-305.6%) โ€” earnings quality concernFlag
Liquidity penalty: -2.0pt (grade B)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services โ€” Rank #77 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ERIE67.719.616.1%15.1%$12.3B
CME86.427.29.9%57.5%$114.0B
FHB84.911.83.2%24.2%$3.1B
ACT84.58.92.4%54.6%$6.1B
CINF84.210.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
SEIC82.214.010.7%27.3%$9.9B
TROW79.910.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
QQQX79.710.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
IBOC78.210.67.5%40.1%$4.2B
HWC77.812.2-1.5%24.1%$5.6B
FFIN77.518.811.7%30.7%$4.7B
TRMK77.111.934.8%19.3%$2.6B
NMIH77.17.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
EWBC76.712.74.6%28.3%$15.3B
WSFS76.312.8-3.1%21.1%$3.5B
MCHB76.1N/A123.7%23.2%$3.1B
Sector Average47.526.813.4%-2.8%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Erie Indemnity Company operates as a managing attorney-in-fact for the subscribers at the Erie Insurance Exchange in the United States. The company provides sales, underwriting, policy issuance, and renewal services for the policyholders on behalf of the Erie Insurance Exchange. It also offers sales related services, including agent compensation, and sales and advertising support services; and underwriting services comprise underwriting and policy processing; and other services consist of customer services and administrative support services, as well as information technology services. Erie Indemnity Company was incorporated in 1925 and is based in Erie, Pennsylvania.

CEO
Parthasarathy Srinivasa
Employees
6,715
Beta
0.37
Industry
Insurance - Brokers
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
38.8
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-41%
High: $456.93
From 52W Low
+9.1%
Low: $247.01
Moving Averages
10-Day
$271.70
Below
20-Day
$276.70
Below
50-Day
$280.50
Below
200-Day
$319.30
Below
60-Day Support
$247.01
60-Day Resistance
$301.14
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 12/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-15.6%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-10.19%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.26x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Entry & Exit Zones

Avoid
No Entry
โ€”
No entry โ€” active downtrend
Exit Target
โ€”
Exit position if held
Stop Level
โ€”
No stop โ€” exit recommended

Stage 4 downtrend โ€” price is below both SMA50 and SMA200 with a declining 200-day average. Capital preservation takes priority. Do not buy into a downtrend.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$951M$1.3B$1.1B$989M
Gross Profit$139M$446M$199M$151M
Operating Income$158M$210M$199M$151M
Net Income$63M$183M$175M$138M
EPS (Diluted)$1.20$3.47$3.34$2.65
Gross Margin14.6%34.2%18.8%15.3%
Operating Margin16.6%16.1%18.8%15.3%
Net Margin6.7%14.0%16.5%14.0%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 19.6Revenue growth 16.1%Profit margin 15.1%

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 70/100Score impact: +14.1pt

Volume
43
178K avg/day
Dollar Vol
98
$47M/day
Float
55
25M shares
Mkt Cap
81
$12.3B
Range
97
73% spread
Composite Liquidity Score70/100
FDCBA
low volume

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$168.87$252.1039.5%Wide
2022$158.46$286.5057.6%Wide
2023$199.49$336.0551%Wide
2024$321.05$547.0052.1%Wide
2025$273.59$456.9350.2%Wide
3-Year Range
93.1%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
54.5%
Outstanding Shares
46M
Bid-Ask Spread
73.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.