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45

SWBI

๐Ÿญ Industrials

Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc.

Conservative #753Aggressive #1152Low Risk
$11.90+0.00%
Day High$11.94
Day Low$11.74
Volume0.4M
Mkt Cap$529M
52W Low $852W High $12
Market Cap
$534M
P/E Ratio
53.8
Sector avg: 49.9
Rev Growth
-11.4%
Sector avg: 19.0%
Earnings Growth
-66.1%
Profit Margin
2.1%
Sector avg: -48.2%
Debt/Equity
0.34

Why This Score

SWBI scores 45.5 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Positive but moderate momentum (14%) โ€” steady appreciation without overheating.
  • High conviction (71/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Elevated valuation at 53.8x earnings โ€” requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Above-average volatility (10.1%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (-2.8 points) applied. SWBI's rank of #753 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score45.5
Fundamental Score48.5
ML Score28.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
65.7
6 Month
73.4
Primary
1 Year
77.3

Quality Assessment

D
Quality Grade
Below average quality โ€” weak profitability or high leverage
1 quality flag detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (-406.3%) โ€” earnings quality concern

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
61
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
63
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
67
Grade B
Base
42.3
SHAP
+2.8
Factors
+1.2
Divergence
-0.8
Final
45.5
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

47AVG
Value46
Quality27
Growth9
Stability80
Investment74

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)23.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)82.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)81.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+0.2% to +4.6%
Medium-term
+0.8% to +7.4%
Long-term
+1.4% to +10.2%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 28

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score62.5/100
Target Upside+31.0%
Coverage4 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score60.7/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum+0.5%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-33.4%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.30)
Relative Strength vs Sector+3.6%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (1.4)
Momentum Quality+0.119
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
11%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P5
Revenue growth vs Industrials peers
Sector PE Rank
P15
Valuation vs Industrials peers
Sector FCF Rank
P76
Free cash flow vs Industrials peers
Growth Deviation
-0.2ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 49 relative to sector peers49/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 28th percentileP28
Blended score: 80% fundamental (49) + 20% ML (28) = 44.444.4
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 17% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade D
SHAP feature alignment: +2.8pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Divergence penalty: -0.8pt (ML 21pt lower)Divergence
Risk Factors
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-406.3%) โ€” earnings quality concernFlag
Liquidity penalty: -2.0pt (grade B)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Industrials โ€” Rank #77 of 135 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
SWBI45.553.8-11.4%2.1%$534M
FER84.112.27.4%35.3%$53.6B
NDSN77.235.13.8%17.4%$16.0B
OMAB76.420.14.3%32.7%$6.0B
ODFL76.339.8-0.9%20.4%$42.2B
FAST73.142.68.7%15.3%$52.8B
CSX71.526.5-3.1%20.5%$79.2B
WWD71.347.87.3%12.4%$23.1B
LECO71.331.5-4.4%11.6%$15.5B
PCAR71.028.2-4.2%12.4%$65.2B
CTAS70.841.97.7%17.5%$80.2B
RYAAY69.913.03.8%11.6%$35.5B
CPRT69.523.09.7%33.4%$36.2B
FELE69.335.5-2.1%8.9%$4.4B
NSSC68.934.5-3.8%24.7%$1.6B
AEIS68.081.221.4%8.3%$12.5B
Sector Average45.849.919.0%-48.2%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy4 analysts
Buy: 2Hold: 2
Price Target
$15consensus
Low $13Median $15High $18
+28.2% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells firearms worldwide. The company offers handguns, including revolvers and pistols; long guns, such as modern sporting rifles, bolt action rifles; handcuffs; suppressors; and other firearm-related products under the Smith & Wesson, M&P, and Gemtech brands. It also provides manufacturing services comprising forging, heat treating, rapid prototyping, tooling, finishing, plating, machining, and custom plastic injection molding to other businesses under the Smith & Wesson and Smith & Wesson Precision Components brand names; and sells parts purchased through third parties. The company sells its products to firearm enthusiasts, collectors, hunters, sportsmen, competitive shooters, individuals desiring home and personal protection, law enforcement, security agencies and officers, and military agencies. It markets its products through independent dealers, retailers, in-store retails, and direct to consumers; print, broadcast, and digital advertising campaigns; social and electronic media; and in-store retail merchandising strategies. Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. was founded in 1852 and is based in Springfield, Massachusetts.

CEO
Mark Peter Smith
Employees
1,501
Beta
1.07
Industry
Aerospace & Defense
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
57.5
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-2.1%
High: $12.15
From 52W Low
+53.9%
Low: $7.73
Moving Averages
10-Day
$11.80
Above
20-Day
$11.70
Above
50-Day
$11.00
Above
200-Day
$9.60
Above
60-Day Support
$8.57
60-Day Resistance
$12.15
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 76/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+24%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+3.6%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.67x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
57
Confidence: 90%

Entry & Exit Zones

Above Entry Zone
$9.13
Stop Entry Now Target
$13.96
Entry Zone
$10.89 โ€“ $11.33
SMA50 pullback zone ($10.89โ€“$11.33)
Exit Target
$13.55
52-week high / +22% target ($13.55)
Stop Level
$9.41
Below SMA200 ($9.41)
Risk / Reward:1 : 1.44Tight

Stage 2 uptrend โ€” institutional accumulation phase. SMA50 pullbacks are the highest-probability entry points. Stop below SMA200 preserves capital if trend breaks.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2025Q3 2025
Revenue$125M$85M$141M$116M
Gross Profit$30M$22M$41M$28M
Operating Income$4M$-3M$15M$4M
Net Income$2M$-3M$10M$2M
EPS (Diluted)$0.04$-0.08$0.22$0.04
Gross Margin24.3%25.9%28.8%24.1%
Operating Margin3.3%-3.5%10.4%3.6%
Net Margin1.5%-4.0%6.9%1.4%

Why This Stock

IndustrialsValuation below sector median (P/E 53.8)

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 67/100Score impact: -12.1pt

Volume
84
600K avg/day
Dollar Vol
54
$7M/day
Float
73
43M shares
Mkt Cap
30
$534M
Range
89
57% spread
Composite Liquidity Score67/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$14.50$39.6192.8%Wide
2022$8.21$18.9479%Wide
2023$8.72$14.8652.1%Wide
2024$9.68$18.0560.4%Wide
2025$7.73$11.5039.2%Wide
3-Year Range
80.1%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.5x dampening
revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
97.3%
Outstanding Shares
44M
Bid-Ask Spread
57.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.