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ROKU

📡 Communication Services

Roku, Inc.

Conservative #776Aggressive #785Low RiskLow 8ML↑ 46pt
$92.28+5.25%
Day High$92.69
Day Low$87.27
Volume3.7M
Mkt Cap$13.6B
52W Low $5252W High $117
Market Cap
$13.3B
P/E Ratio
152.6
Sector avg: 120.6
Rev Growth
15.2%
Sector avg: 15.8%
Earnings Growth
168.3%
Profit Margin
1.9%
Sector avg: -116.3%
Debt/Equity
0.20

Why This Score

ROKU scores 42.7 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated valuation at 152.6x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Above-average volatility (10.2%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (-2.3 points) applied. ROKU's rank of #776 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score42.7
Fundamental Score47.0
ML Score17.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
82.9
6 Month
92.6
Primary
1 Year
97.5

Quality Assessment

C
Earnings Grade
Mixed fundamentals, potential quality issues

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
69
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
68
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
97
Grade A
Base
41.0
SHAP
+2.2
Factors
+1.8
Divergence
-2.3
Final
42.7
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

69AVG
Value40
Quality55
Growth90
Stability90
Investment70

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)47.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)53.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)84.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-5.2% to +1.2%
Medium-term
-7.8% to +1.8%
Long-term
-10.4% to +2.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 17

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score68.3/100
Target Upside+52.1%
Coverage45 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score68.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum-0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+14.6%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.86)
Relative Strength vs Sector+7.8%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.8)
Momentum Quality+0.065
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P81
Revenue growth vs Communication Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P10
Valuation vs Communication Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P26
Free cash flow vs Communication Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.2σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 53 relative to sector peers53/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 99th percentileP99
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.4pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (52.8) + 9% ML (98.9) + SHAP(+2.4) = 59.4—
Factor quality: +2.0pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 10.2%. Max drawdown 17% (-3.6 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: +2.0 points ($13.3B market cap)+2.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -4.0pt (conviction=8)—
Divergence penalty: -5.5pt (ML 46pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by -10 pointsGrade C
Quality concern: Earnings growth (168%) far exceeds revenue growth (15.2%) — margin expansion may not be sustainableFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Communication Services — Rank #30 of 60 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ROKU42.7152.615.2%1.9%$13.3B
GOOGL82.828.315.1%32.8%$3.7T
EA75.175.1-1.3%15.0%$50.2B
MTCH74.512.83.4%15.8%$7.3B
META72.027.222.2%30.1%$1.6T
TIGO69.810.12.5%4.4%$11.0B
BZ65.521.923.6%21.5%$8.1B
NXST65.214.49.6%13.4%$7.0B
SIRI63.69.5-1.6%9.4%$7.2B
CMCSA63.65.9-0.0%16.2%$115.0B
JOYY60.91.9-1.3%83.2%$3.3B
EVER60.610.473.7%8.4%$566M
NFLX59.630.415.9%24.3%$326.1B
TMUS59.322.68.5%12.4%$245.5B
NWS56.712.62.4%12.2%$14.7B
WMG56.451.74.4%5.4%$15.4B
Sector Average43.5120.615.8%-116.3%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy45 analysts
Buy: 35Hold: 8Sell: 2
Price Target
$129consensus
Low $100Median $132High $150
+39.9% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Roku, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a TV streaming platform. The company operates in two segments, Platform and Player. Its platform allows users to discover and access various movies and TV episodes, as well as live TV, news sports, shows, and others. As of December 31, 2021, the company had 60.1 million active accounts. It also provides digital and video advertising, content distribution, subscription, and billing services, as well as other commerce transactions, and brand sponsorship and promotions; and manufactures, sells, and licenses smart TVs under the Roku TV name. In addition, the company offers streaming players, and audio products and accessories under the Roku brand name; and sells branded channel buttons on remote controls of streaming devices. It provides its products and services through retailers and distributors, as well as directly to customers through its website in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Peru, North and South Americas, and Europe. Roku, Inc. was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

CEO
Anthony J. Wood
Employees
3,340
Beta
1.99
Industry
Entertainment
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
50.2
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-20.9%
High: $116.66
From 52W Low
+76%
Low: $52.43
Moving Averages
10-Day
$88.30
Above
20-Day
$90.60
Above
50-Day
$101.60
Below
200-Day
$93.50
Below
60-Day Support
$78.53
60-Day Resistance
$116.33
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 34/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Transition signal: 3→4
Price vs 200 SMA
-1.3%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+10.39%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.59x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
14
Confidence: 50%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$1.4B$1.2B$1.1B$1.0B
Gross Profit$607M$525M$498M$445M
Operating Income$66M$9M$-23M$-58M
Net Income$80M$25M$11M$-27M
EPS (Diluted)$0.53$0.16$0.07$-0.19
Gross Margin43.5%43.4%44.8%43.6%
Operating Margin4.7%0.8%-2.1%-5.7%
Net Margin5.8%2.0%0.9%-2.7%

Why This Stock

Communication ServicesRevenue growth 15.2%

Tradability FilterGrade A — 97/100Score impact: +11.4pt

Volume
100
3.4M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$288M/day
Float
100
130M shares
Mkt Cap
81
$13.3B
Range
100
123% spread
Composite Liquidity Score97/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$190.23$490.7688.3%Wide
2022$38.26$238.36144.7%Wide
2023$39.00$108.8494.5%Wide
2024$48.33$99.8069.5%Wide
2025$52.43$116.6676%Wide
3-Year Range
99.8%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.15x dampening
weinstein declining

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
88.1%
Outstanding Shares
147M
Bid-Ask Spread
123.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.