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EXPI

๐Ÿ  Real Estate

eXp World Holdings, Inc.

Conservative #716Aggressive #832Moderate RiskHigh 100
$7.30-2.28%
Day High$7.43
Day Low$7.00
Volume1.8M
Mkt Cap$1.2B
52W Low $752W High $12
Market Cap
$1.2B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
6.9%
Sector avg: 14869.7%
Earnings Growth
-137.0%
Profit Margin
-0.4%
Sector avg: 5.3%
Debt/Equity
N/A

Why This Score

EXPI scores 44.7 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.00) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • High conviction (100/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (10.2%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-4.3 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score44.7
Fundamental Score38.9
ML Score69.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
42.6
6 Month
47.6
Primary
1 Year
50.1

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (713.4%) โ€” earnings quality concern

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
58
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
65
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
79
Grade B
Base
43.0
SHAP
+0.9
Factors
+0.7
Conviction
+2.4
Divergence
-2.3
Final
44.7
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)44.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)42.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)81.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-3.3% to +0.9%
Medium-term
-4.6% to +1.7%
Long-term
-5.9% to +2.5%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 69

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score65.0/100
Target Upside+57.9%
Coverage5 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score57.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum-0.2%
6M Momentum-0.3%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+5.9%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.80)
Relative Strength vs Sector-27.2%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.3)
Momentum Quality-0.159
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
21%
Moderate โ€” watch growth
Sector RevGr Rank
P63
Revenue growth vs Real Estate peers
Sector PE Rank
P74
Valuation vs Real Estate peers
Sector FCF Rank
P78
Free cash flow vs Real Estate peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 52 relative to sector peers52/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 52th percentileP52
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.3pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (51.5) + 9% ML (48.7) + SHAP(+1.3) = 52.5โ€”
Factor quality: +1.1pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 10.2%. Max drawdown 33% (-10.1 pts). Price momentum -24% (-3.7 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.2B market cap)-8.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +3.6pt (conviction=100)โ€”
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (713.4%) โ€” earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Real Estate โ€” Rank #16 of 28 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
EXPI44.7N/A6.9%-0.4%$1.2B
AGNC80.27.5-60.8%87.0%$12.3B
SBAC76.325.3-1.2%28.0%$21.4B
GLPI75.116.66.3%51.2%$13.1B
REG73.627.16.9%34.0%$14.2B
HST71.018.87.0%12.3%$13.9B
LAMR70.531.04.6%16.4%$13.3B
SBRA69.231.510.2%20.1%$5.1B
ADAM64.74.912.0%19.9%$735M
LAND64.240.1-5.7%14.5%$407M
EQIX61.969.45.4%14.6%$94.0B
PECO57.644.110.7%15.3%$4.9B
DRH55.131.95.1%5.7%$2.0B
RMR53.311.8-22.0%3.5%$526M
GOOD52.430.78.0%12.0%$607M
FISV47.79.47.1%15.3%$32.3B
Sector Average47.468.214869.7%5.3%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

eXp World Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides cloud-based real estate brokerage services for residential homeowners and homebuyers. The company facilitates buyers to search real-time property listings and sellers to list their properties through its various platforms; and offers buyers and sellers with access to a network of professionals, consumer-centric agents, and brokers. It is also involved in building 3D virtual worlds for work, education, and events; and focused on agent website and consumer real estate portal technology. In addition, the company operates SUCCESS print magazine, SUCCESS.com portal, SUCCESS newsletters, podcasts, digital training courses, and affiliated social media accounts across platforms. Further, it provides marketing, training, and other support services to its brokers and agents through proprietary technology enabled services, as well as technology and support services contracted to third parties. eXp World Holdings, Inc. operates in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia, South Africa, India, Portugal, France, Mexico, Puerto Rico, Brazil, Italy, Hong Kong, Colombia, Spain, Israel, Panama, and Germany. The company was formerly known as eXp Realty International Corporation and changed its name to eXp World Holdings, Inc. in May 2016. eXp World Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 2008 and is based in Bellingham, Washington.

CEO
Glenn Darrel Sanford
Employees
2,001
Beta
2.10
Industry
Real Estate - Services
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
23.0
Oversold
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-40.3%
High: $12.23
From 52W Low
+5.8%
Low: $6.9
Moving Averages
10-Day
$7.50
Below
20-Day
$8.10
Below
50-Day
$8.90
Below
200-Day
$9.90
Below
60-Day Support
$7
60-Day Resistance
$11.58
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 17/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-26.3%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-1.13%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
1.17x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
46
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$1.2B$1.3B$1.3B$955M
Gross Profit$79M$86M$93M$76M
Operating Income$-13M$4M$-2M$-10M
Net Income$-13M$3M$-2M$-11M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.08$0.02$-0.01$-0.07
Gross Margin6.6%6.5%7.1%8.0%
Operating Margin-1.1%0.3%-0.2%-1.1%
Net Margin-1.1%0.3%-0.2%-1.2%

Why This Stock

Real EstateValuation below sector median

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 79/100Score impact: -14.2pt

Volume
100
997K avg/day
Dollar Vol
55
$7M/day
Float
97
92M shares
Mkt Cap
43
$1.2B
Range
99
77% spread
Composite Liquidity Score79/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$22.52$71.90104.6%Wide
2022$9.96$34.48110.4%Wide
2023$10.45$25.3983.4%Wide
2024$8.91$16.4859.6%Wide
2025$6.90$12.2355.7%Wide
3-Year Range
114.5%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
57.9%
Outstanding Shares
159M
Bid-Ask Spread
77.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.