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59

LOPE

๐Ÿ›’ Consumer Defensive

Grand Canyon Education, Inc.

Conservative #378Aggressive #745Moderate Risk
$159.07-0.49%
Day High$159.71
Day Low$155.12
Volume0.4M
Mkt Cap$4.4B
52W Low $14952W High $223
Market Cap
$4.5B
P/E Ratio
20.0
Sector avg: 33.1
Rev Growth
7.1%
Sector avg: 10.6%
Earnings Growth
-4.4%
Profit Margin
19.5%
Sector avg: -3.2%
Debt/Equity
0.27

Why This Score

LOPE scores 59.4 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 28.2% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • High conviction (100/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (10.4%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (-2.0 points) applied. LOPE's rank of #378 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score59.4
Fundamental Score55.5
ML Score65.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
61.2
6 Month
68.3
Primary
1 Year
72.0

Quality Assessment

A
Quality Grade
Excellent quality โ€” strong profitability, low leverage, no flags

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
51
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
74
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
74
Grade B
Base
55.4
SHAP
+1.1
Factors
+0.7
Conviction
+2.2
Final
59.4
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

67AVG
Value59
Quality84
Growth44
Stability74
Investment74

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)69.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)48.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)81.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-1.3% to +2.8%
Medium-term
-1.5% to +4.8%
Long-term
-1.6% to +6.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 65

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score73.6/100
Target Upside+18.5%
Coverage18 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score51.2/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum-0.1%
6M Momentum-0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+9.7%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.52)
Relative Strength vs Sector-19.8%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (1.0)
Momentum Quality-0.075
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
12%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P58
Revenue growth vs Consumer Defensive peers
Sector PE Rank
P65
Valuation vs Consumer Defensive peers
Sector FCF Rank
P44
Free cash flow vs Consumer Defensive peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 56 relative to sector peers56/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 65th percentileP65
Blended score: 80% fundamental (56) + 20% ML (65) = 57.457.4
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 28% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade A
SHAP feature alignment: +1.1pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: +2.2pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Risk Factors
Liquidity penalty: -2.0pt (grade B)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Defensive โ€” Rank #18 of 55 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
LOPE59.420.07.1%19.5%$4.5B
MNST84.446.34.9%20.1%$84.6B
COCO77.443.118.2%11.7%$3.3B
CALM76.73.583.2%27.4%$4.1B
LAUR76.325.85.5%18.9%$4.9B
WMT71.546.75.1%2.9%$1.0T
CCEP68.925.111.7%6.9%$49.7B
PSMT66.531.57.2%2.7%$4.8B
COST66.254.68.2%2.9%$441.9B
PEP65.127.62.3%8.8%$230.9B
COKE64.623.13.7%9.2%$16.7B
PRDO64.013.124.2%18.9%$2.2B
SFD63.811.3-3.4%5.5%$9.6B
OLLI62.531.48.0%8.8%$6.7B
FIZZ61.218.60.8%15.6%$3.5B
DLTR61.023.94.8%5.9%$25.7B
Sector Average51.133.110.6%-3.2%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. provides education services to colleges and universities in the United States. The company's technology services include learning management system, internal administration, infrastructure, and support services; academic services comprises program and curriculum, faculty and related training and development, class scheduling, and skills and simulation lab sites; and counseling services and support include admission, financial aid, and field experience and other counseling services. It also offers marketing and communication services, such as lead acquisition, digital communications strategy, brand identity, market research, media planning and strategy, video, and business intelligence and data science; and back-office services comprising finance and accounting, human resources, audit, and procurement services. The company, through its subsidiary, Orbis Education Services, LLC, supports healthcare education programs for 27 universities. Grand Canyon Education, Inc. was founded in 1949 and is based in Phoenix, Arizona.

CEO
Brian E. Mueller
Employees
4,092
Beta
0.71
Industry
Education & Training Services
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
39.7
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-28.7%
High: $223.04
From 52W Low
+6.5%
Low: $149.37
Moving Averages
10-Day
$159.00
Above
20-Day
$163.20
Below
50-Day
$168.60
Below
200-Day
$183.90
Below
60-Day Support
$149.37
60-Day Resistance
$182.16
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 20/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-13.5%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-1.63%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
1.33x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
80
Confidence: 90%
Recent Gap Up

Entry & Exit Zones

Avoid
No Entry
โ€”
No entry โ€” active downtrend
Exit Target
โ€”
Exit position if held
Stop Level
โ€”
No stop โ€” exit recommended

Stage 4 downtrend โ€” price is below both SMA50 and SMA200 with a declining 200-day average. Capital preservation takes priority. Do not buy into a downtrend.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$308M$261M$247M$289M
Gross Profit$172M$130M$121M$161M
Operating Income$108M$55M$52M$88M
Net Income$87M$16M$42M$72M
EPS (Diluted)$3.14$0.58$1.48$2.52
Gross Margin55.9%49.7%49.0%55.6%
Operating Margin35.1%21.2%20.9%30.4%
Net Margin28.1%6.2%16.8%24.8%

Why This Stock

Consumer DefensiveP/E ratio of 20.0Profit margin 19.5%

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 74/100Score impact: +3.0pt

Volume
63
331K avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$51M/day
Float
57
27M shares
Mkt Cap
66
$4.5B
Range
85
49% spread
Composite Liquidity Score74/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$70.00$115.9649.4%Wide
2022$72.00$114.3445.4%Wide
2023$99.65$144.9437%Wide
2024$118.48$173.3737.6%Wide
2025$149.83$223.0439.3%Wide
3-Year Range
76.5%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
94.9%
Outstanding Shares
28M
Bid-Ask Spread
49.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.