Back to Dashboard
47

KHC

๐Ÿ›’ Consumer Defensive

The Kraft Heinz Company

Conservative #707Aggressive #1005Low RiskMLโ†‘ 18pt
$24.61+0.16%
Day High$25.01
Day Low$24.54
Volume12.6M
Mkt Cap$29.1B
52W Low $2252W High $33
Market Cap
$29.4B
P/E Ratio
11.4
Sector avg: 33.1
Rev Growth
-3.5%
Sector avg: 10.6%
Earnings Growth
-313.0%
Profit Margin
-23.4%
Sector avg: -3.2%
Debt/Equity
0.51

Why This Score

KHC scores 46.9 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Attractively valued at 11.4x earnings, below the market average.
  • Low volatility (4.2% annualized) โ€” well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.

No material penalties applied. KHC ranks #707 based on its factor profile and ML signal alignment.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score46.9
Fundamental Score42.6
ML Score63.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
64.5
6 Month
72.1
Primary
1 Year
75.9

Quality Assessment

C
Quality Grade
Average quality โ€” moderate profitability or leverage
1 quality flag detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
False stability: 0.042 vol with only -3.5% revenue growth โ€” stagnation, not safety (declining revenue overrides sector exemption)

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
32
Negative
Analyst (6.4%)
46
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
97
Grade A
Base
43.7
SHAP
+2.8
Factors
+1.2
Divergence
-0.8
Final
46.9
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

63AVG
Value85
Quality40
Growth35
Stability75
Investment80

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)34.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)57.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)70.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-3.9% to +2.3%
Medium-term
-5.1% to +4.0%
Long-term
-6.4% to +5.7%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 63

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score46.3/100
Target Upside+0.7%
Coverage34 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score32.1/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum-0.1%
6M Momentum-0.1%
Volatility+0.0%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-5.8%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.60)
Relative Strength vs Sector-23.8%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.4)
Momentum Quality-0.119
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
69%
High risk โ€” cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P9
Revenue growth vs Consumer Defensive peers
Sector PE Rank
P85
Valuation vs Consumer Defensive peers
Sector FCF Rank
P89
Free cash flow vs Consumer Defensive peers
Growth Deviation
-0.4ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
YES
Below-sector growth + cheap PE
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 43 relative to sector peers43/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 63th percentileP63
Blended score: 80% fundamental (43) + 20% ML (63) = 46.746.7
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.0%; Drawdown 17% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade C
SHAP feature alignment: +2.8pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Divergence penalty: -0.8pt (ML 20pt higher)Divergence
Risk Factors
Quality concern: False stability: 0.042 vol with only -3.5% revenue growth โ€” stagnation, not safety (declining revenue overrides sector exemption)Flag
Value trap penalty: -2.9ptValue Trap

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Defensive โ€” Rank #40 of 55 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
KHC46.911.4-3.5%-23.4%$29.4B
MNST84.446.34.9%20.1%$84.6B
COCO77.443.118.2%11.7%$3.3B
CALM76.73.583.2%27.4%$4.1B
LAUR76.325.85.5%18.9%$4.9B
WMT71.546.75.1%2.9%$1.0T
CCEP68.925.111.7%6.9%$49.7B
PSMT66.531.57.2%2.7%$4.8B
COST66.254.68.2%2.9%$441.9B
PEP65.127.62.3%8.8%$230.9B
COKE64.623.13.7%9.2%$16.7B
PRDO64.013.124.2%18.9%$2.2B
SFD63.811.3-3.4%5.5%$9.6B
OLLI62.531.48.0%8.8%$6.7B
FIZZ61.218.60.8%15.6%$3.5B
DLTR61.023.94.8%5.9%$25.7B
Sector Average51.133.110.6%-3.2%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

The Kraft Heinz Company, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets food and beverage products in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and internationally. Its products include condiments and sauces, cheese and dairy products, meals, meats, refreshment beverages, coffee, and other grocery products. The company also offers dressings, healthy snacks, and other categories; and spices and other seasonings. It sells its products through its own sales organizations, as well as through independent brokers, agents, and distributors to chain, wholesale, cooperative and independent grocery accounts, convenience stores, drug stores, value stores, bakeries, pharmacies, mass merchants, club stores, and foodservice distributors and institutions, including hotels, restaurants, hospitals, health care facilities, and government agencies; and online through various e-commerce platforms and retailers. The company was formerly known as H.J. Heinz Holding Corporation and changed its name to The Kraft Heinz Company in July 2015. The Kraft Heinz Company was founded in 1869 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

CEO
Steven A. Cahillane
Employees
36,000
Beta
0.05
Industry
Packaged Foods
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
49.6
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-26.2%
High: $33.35
From 52W Low
+11.9%
Low: $21.99
Moving Averages
10-Day
$24.40
Above
20-Day
$24.40
Above
50-Day
$24.00
Above
200-Day
$25.70
Below
60-Day Support
$21.99
60-Day Resistance
$25.38
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 21/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-4.2%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-6.25%
Falling
Volume Ratio
0.9x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Entry & Exit Zones

Avoid
No Entry
โ€”
No entry โ€” active downtrend
Exit Target
โ€”
Exit position if held
Stop Level
โ€”
No stop โ€” exit recommended

Stage 4 downtrend โ€” price is below both SMA50 and SMA200 with a declining 200-day average. Capital preservation takes priority. Do not buy into a downtrend.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$6.4B$6.2B$6.4B$6.0B
Gross Profit$2.1B$2.0B$2.2B$2.1B
Operating Income$1.1B$1.0B$-8.0B$1.2B
Net Income$651M$615M$-7.8B$712M
EPS (Diluted)$0.55$0.52$-6.57$0.60
Gross Margin32.6%31.9%34.4%34.4%
Operating Margin17.1%16.4%-125.5%19.9%
Net Margin10.2%9.9%-123.2%11.9%

Why This Stock

Consumer DefensiveP/E ratio of 11.4Valuation below sector median (P/E 11.4)

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 97/100Score impact: +0.9pt

Volume
100
15.0M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$368M/day
Float
100
1.2B shares
Mkt Cap
90
$29.4B
Range
86
52% spread
Composite Liquidity Score97/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 14/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$32.78$44.9531.3%Moderate
2022$32.73$44.8731.3%Moderate
2023$30.68$42.8033%Moderate
2024$30.01$38.9626%Moderate
2025$23.60$33.3534.2%Moderate
3-Year Range
57.8%
Narrow Years
1 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.34x dampening
weinstein basingslight revenue declinestagnation flag

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
99.6%
Outstanding Shares
1.2B
Bid-Ask Spread
52.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.