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47

HLMN

๐Ÿญ Industrials

Hillman Solutions Corp.

Conservative #700Aggressive #537Low RiskMLโ†‘ 18pt
$8.45+1.44%
Day High$8.54
Day Low$8.34
Volume2.6M
Mkt Cap$1.7B
52W Low $752W High $11
Market Cap
$1.8B
P/E Ratio
43.8
Sector avg: 49.9
Rev Growth
5.4%
Sector avg: 19.0%
Earnings Growth
133.6%
Profit Margin
2.6%
Sector avg: -48.2%
Debt/Equity
0.67

Why This Score

HLMN scores 47.0 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Elevated valuation at 43.8x earnings โ€” requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Above-average volatility (11.1%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (0.0 points) applied. HLMN's rank of #700 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score47.0
Fundamental Score44.7
ML Score36.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
68.2
6 Month
76.3
Primary
1 Year
80.3

Quality Assessment

D
Quality Grade
Below average quality โ€” weak profitability or high leverage

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
65
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
64
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
83
Grade A
Base
43.0
SHAP
+2.8
Factors
+1.2
Final
47.0
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

56AVG
Value55
Quality29
Growth75
Stability71
Investment51

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)47.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)68.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)82.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+2.3% to +7.0%
Medium-term
+4.4% to +11.5%
Long-term
+6.4% to +16.1%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 36

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score64.3/100
Target Upside+51.2%
Coverage7 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score64.8/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum+0.0%
6M Momentum+0.0%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+1.3%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.59)
Relative Strength vs Sector-7.6%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.3)
Momentum Quality+0.024
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
4%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P51
Revenue growth vs Industrials peers
Sector PE Rank
P23
Valuation vs Industrials peers
Sector FCF Rank
P38
Free cash flow vs Industrials peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 45 relative to sector peers45/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 36th percentileP36
Blended score: 80% fundamental (45) + 20% ML (36) = 43.043.0
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 20% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade D
SHAP feature alignment: +2.8pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Risk Factors

No risk factors identified.

Sector Peer Comparison(Industrials โ€” Rank #66 of 135 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
HLMN47.043.85.4%2.6%$1.8B
FER84.112.27.4%35.3%$52.6B
NDSN77.235.13.8%17.4%$16.2B
OMAB76.420.14.3%32.7%$6.1B
ODFL76.339.8-0.9%20.4%$40.8B
FAST73.142.68.7%15.3%$51.7B
CSX71.526.5-3.1%20.5%$78.9B
WWD71.347.87.3%12.4%$23.0B
LECO71.331.5-4.4%11.6%$15.6B
PCAR71.028.2-4.2%12.4%$65.1B
CTAS70.841.97.7%17.5%$80.3B
RYAAY69.913.03.8%11.6%$36.1B
CPRT69.523.09.7%33.4%$35.6B
FELE69.335.5-2.1%8.9%$4.3B
NSSC68.934.5-3.8%24.7%$1.7B
AEIS68.081.221.4%8.3%$12.3B
Sector Average45.849.919.0%-48.2%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Hillman Solutions Corp., together with its subsidiaries, provides hardware-related products and related merchandising services in North America. It offers hardware products, including anchor shackles and eye bolts, door hinges and chains, garage doors, safety hasps, gate hooks and latches, magnets, hooks and storage, corner braces and mending plates, and springs; and fasteners, such as anchors, ball bearings, bolts, kits, nails, nuts, pins, rivets, screws, spacers, threaded inserts, tools/brushes, washers, wire hardware, and other accessories. The company also offers driveway markers/reflectors, numbers, letters, plaques, signs, stencils, survey and flagging tapes, and safety and caution products; threaded rods, aluminum tubes, and slotted and aluminum angles; wall hangings, including frame hardware, hooks, picture hanging, adhesives, mirrors, wires, and accessories, as well as picture hanging and tool-free mounting products; face masks, gloves, and glasses; keys and engravings; and electrical, plumbing, and automotive products and accessories. It offers its products under the DECK PLUS, GORILLA GRIP, HILLMAN, HARDWARE Essentials, minute key, POWERPRO, OOK, Fas.n.Tite, Distinctions, AWP, OZCO, The Steel Works, and Digz brand names. The company sells its products to hardware stores, home centers, mass merchants, pet supply stores, and other retail outlets, as well as industrial original equipment manufacturers. Hillman Solutions Corp. was founded in 1964 and is headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio.

CEO
Jon Michael Adinolfi
Employees
3,886
Beta
1.66
Industry
Manufacturing - Tools & Accessories
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
14.8
Oversold
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-22.1%
High: $10.85
From 52W Low
+29%
Low: $6.55
Moving Averages
10-Day
$9.00
Below
20-Day
$9.50
Below
50-Day
$9.40
Below
200-Day
$8.80
Below
60-Day Support
$8.31
60-Day Resistance
$10.85
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 12/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Transition signal: 3โ†’4
Price vs 200 SMA
-4%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+2.45%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.47x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
4
Confidence: 50%
Recent Gap Down

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$365M$425M$403M$359M
Gross Profit$138M$220M$194M$169M
Operating Income$18M$46M$36M$15M
Net Income$2M$23M$16M$-317,000
EPS (Diluted)$0.01$0.12$0.08$-0.00
Gross Margin37.8%51.7%48.3%46.9%
Operating Margin5.0%10.8%9.0%4.2%
Net Margin0.4%5.5%3.9%-0.1%

Why This Stock

IndustrialsValuation below sector median (P/E 43.8)

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 83/100Score impact: -11.7pt

Volume
100
1.3M avg/day
Dollar Vol
62
$11M/day
Float
100
195M shares
Mkt Cap
54
$1.8B
Range
93
66% spread
Composite Liquidity Score83/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 1/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$9.58$13.4633.7%Moderate
2022$6.60$12.4561.5%Wide
2023$6.02$10.2852.3%Wide
2024$8.43$12.0835.6%Wide
2025$6.55$10.6447.6%Wide
3-Year Range
67%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
98.8%
Outstanding Shares
197M
Bid-Ask Spread
66.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.