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GRPN

📡 Communication Services

Groupon, Inc.

Conservative #1075Aggressive #1296High RiskModerate 77
$12.35+0.73%
Day High$12.46
Day Low$12.21
Volume0.5M
Mkt Cap$503M
52W Low $952W High $43
Market Cap
$532M
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
-4.3%
Sector avg: 15.8%
Earnings Growth
-6.5%
Profit Margin
-28.5%
Sector avg: -116.3%
Debt/Equity
N/A

Why This Score

GRPN scores 31.5 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E -5.90) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (12%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
  • High conviction (77/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (28.5%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-3.4 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score31.5
Fundamental Score37.6
ML Score13.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
55.7
6 Month
62.2
Primary
1 Year
65.5

Quality Assessment

D
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
2.8%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
50
Basing
Sentiment (2.5%)
69
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
58
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
71
Grade Bsmall cap
Base
30.6
SHAP
+1.2
Factors
+1.1
Divergence
-1.4
Final
31.5
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)49.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)25.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)82.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-5.3% to +1.3%
Medium-term
-7.9% to +1.9%
Long-term
-10.5% to +2.5%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 13

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score57.6/100
Target Upside+107.0%
Coverage46 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score68.9/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage1 — Basing
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum-0.5%
Volatility+0.3%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+64.4%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.23)
Relative Strength vs Sector+12.2%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.4)
Momentum Quality+0.046
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
35%
High risk — cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P15
Revenue growth vs Communication Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P73
Valuation vs Communication Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P56
Free cash flow vs Communication Services peers
Growth Deviation
-0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 61 relative to sector peers61/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 65th percentileP65
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.2pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (61.1) + 9% ML (61.6) + SHAP(+1.2) = 62.4
Factor quality: +1.1pt (multi-factor composite)
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($0.5B market cap)-15.0 pts
Risk Factors
Risk assessment: high. Annualized volatility 28.5%. Max drawdown 63% (-12.0 pts)High
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by -18 pointsGrade D
Quality concern: Non-operating loss: operating margin (4.0%) exceeds net margin (-28.5%) by 33pp — possible write-down; High accrual ratio (153.0%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Communication Services — Rank #46 of 60 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
GRPN31.5N/A-4.3%-28.5%$532M
GOOGL82.828.315.1%32.8%$3.7T
EA75.175.1-1.3%15.0%$50.2B
MTCH74.512.83.4%15.8%$7.3B
META72.027.222.2%30.1%$1.6T
TIGO69.810.12.5%4.4%$11.0B
BZ65.521.923.6%21.5%$8.1B
NXST65.214.49.6%13.4%$7.0B
SIRI63.69.5-1.6%9.4%$7.2B
CMCSA63.65.9-0.0%16.2%$115.0B
JOYY60.91.9-1.3%83.2%$3.3B
EVER60.610.473.7%8.4%$566M
NFLX59.630.415.9%24.3%$326.1B
TMUS59.322.68.5%12.4%$245.5B
NWS56.712.62.4%12.2%$14.7B
WMG56.451.74.4%5.4%$15.4B
Sector Average43.5120.615.8%-116.3%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy46 analysts
Buy: 23Hold: 18Sell: 5
Price Target
$25consensus
Low $12Median $30High $30
+104.5% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Groupon, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a marketplace that connects consumers to merchants. It operates in two segments, North America and International. The company sells goods or services on behalf of third-party merchants; and first-party goods inventory. It serves customers through its mobile applications and websites. The company was formerly known as ThePoint.com, Inc. and changed its name to Groupon, Inc. in October 2008. Groupon, Inc. was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

CEO
Dusan Senkypl
Employees
2,079
Beta
-0.05
Industry
Internet Content & Information
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
40.3
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-71.3%
High: $43.08
From 52W Low
+34.1%
Low: $9.21
Moving Averages
10-Day
$12.50
Below
20-Day
$13.10
Below
50-Day
$15.20
Below
200-Day
$23.40
Below
60-Day Support
$11.85
60-Day Resistance
$18.88
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 1 — BasingScore: 37/100

Stock is building a base after a decline. The 200-day moving average is flattening. Watch for a breakout above the 200-day SMA on increased volume.

Monitor for breakout above 200-day SMA on volume
Price vs 200 SMA
-47.2%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-0.39%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
0.94x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
95
Confidence: 70%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$123M$126M$117M$130M
Gross Profit$109M$114M$106M$118M
Operating Income$2M$13M$2M$3M
Net Income$-118M$20M$7M$-51M
EPS (Diluted)$-2.92$0.46$0.17$-1.20
Gross Margin89.1%91.0%90.7%90.6%
Operating Margin1.8%10.4%1.6%2.0%
Net Margin-96.4%16.2%6.1%-38.8%

Why This Stock

Communication ServicesValuation below sector median

Tradability FilterGrade B — 71/100Score impact: -4.4pt

Volume
100
1.0M avg/day
Dollar Vol
65
$12M/day
Float
53
23M shares
Mkt Cap
30
$532M
Range
100
368% spread
Composite Liquidity Score71/100
FDCBA
small cap

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.11x dampening
weinstein decliningslight revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
56.8%
Outstanding Shares
41M
Bid-Ask Spread
368.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.