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TITN

๐Ÿญ Industrials

Titan Machinery Inc.

Conservative #1250Aggressive #1389Moderate RiskMLโ†‘ 27pt
$19.49-1.52%
Day High$19.79
Day Low$19.20
Volume0.1M
Mkt Cap$455M
52W Low $1352W High $23
Market Cap
$477M
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
-2.0%
Sector avg: 19.0%
Earnings Growth
-133.3%
Profit Margin
-2.4%
Sector avg: -48.2%
Debt/Equity
1.72

Why This Score

TITN scores 21.8 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Positive but moderate momentum (10%) โ€” steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (10.5%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.72) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Moderate penalties (-7.3 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score21.8
Fundamental Score31.0
ML Score8.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
62.2
6 Month
69.5
Primary
1 Year
73.1

Quality Assessment

F
Quality Grade
Low quality โ€” significant fundamental weaknesses
1 quality flag detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (440.6%) โ€” earnings quality concern

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
20
Topping
Sentiment (2.5%)
46
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
47
Grade Clow volume, low dollar volume
Base
21.2
SHAP
+1.2
Factors
+1.1
Conviction
-0.5
Divergence
-1.2
Final
21.8
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

45AVG
Value50
Quality8
Growth18
Stability61
Investment89

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)32.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)51.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)74.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-5.3% to +1.3%
Medium-term
-7.9% to +1.9%
Long-term
-10.5% to +2.5%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 8

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+8.4%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score45.8/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage3 โ€” Topping
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum-0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+15.5%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.50)
Relative Strength vs Sector-0.3%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (1.0)
Momentum Quality+0.078
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
42%
High risk โ€” cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P25
Revenue growth vs Industrials peers
Sector PE Rank
P56
Valuation vs Industrials peers
Sector FCF Rank
P99
Free cash flow vs Industrials peers
Growth Deviation
-0.1ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
YES
Below-sector growth + cheap PE
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 31 relative to sector peers31/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 8th percentileP8
Blended score: 80% fundamental (31) + 20% ML (8) = 26.426.4
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 25% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade F: quality flags triggered โ€” see details below. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade F
SHAP feature alignment: +1.2pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: -0.5pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Divergence penalty: -1.2pt (ML 23pt lower)Divergence
Risk Factors
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (440.6%) โ€” earnings quality concernFlag
Value trap penalty: -0.1ptValue Trap
Liquidity penalty: -5.0pt (grade C)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Industrials โ€” Rank #121 of 135 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
TITN21.8N/A-2.0%-2.4%$477M
FER84.112.27.4%35.3%$53.6B
NDSN77.235.13.8%17.4%$16.0B
OMAB76.420.14.3%32.7%$6.0B
ODFL76.339.8-0.9%20.4%$42.2B
FAST73.142.68.7%15.3%$52.8B
CSX71.526.5-3.1%20.5%$79.2B
WWD71.347.87.3%12.4%$23.1B
LECO71.331.5-4.4%11.6%$15.5B
PCAR71.028.2-4.2%12.4%$65.2B
CTAS70.841.97.7%17.5%$80.2B
RYAAY69.913.03.8%11.6%$35.5B
CPRT69.523.09.7%33.4%$36.2B
FELE69.335.5-2.1%8.9%$4.4B
NSSC68.934.5-3.8%24.7%$1.6B
AEIS68.081.221.4%8.3%$12.5B
Sector Average45.849.919.0%-48.2%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Titan Machinery Inc. owns and operates a network of full-service agricultural and construction equipment stores in the United States and Europe. It operates through three segments: Agriculture, Construction, and International. The company sells new and used equipment, including agricultural and construction equipment manufactured under the CNH Industrial family of brands, as well as equipment from various other manufacturers. Its agricultural equipment includes machinery and attachments for use in the production of food, fiber, feed grain, and renewable energy; and home and garden applications, as well as maintenance of commercial, residential, and government properties. The company's construction equipment comprises heavy construction machinery, light industrial machinery for commercial and residential construction, road and highway construction machinery, and energy and forestry operations equipment. It also sells maintenance and replacement parts. In addition, the company offers repair and maintenance services that include warranty repairs, off-site and on-site repair services, scheduling off-season maintenance services, and notifying customers of periodic service requirements; and training programs to customers. Further, it rents equipment; and provides ancillary equipment support services, such as equipment transportation, global positioning system signal subscriptions and other precision farming products, farm data management products, and CNH Industrial finance and insurance products. The company operates in Colorado, Iowa, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wisconsin, and Wyoming, the United States; and Bulgaria, Germany, Romania, and Ukraine, Europe. Titan Machinery Inc. was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in West Fargo, North Dakota.

CEO
Bryan J. Knutson
Employees
3,340
Beta
1.27
Industry
Industrial - Distribution
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
57.7
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-16.7%
High: $23.41
From 52W Low
+55.9%
Low: $12.5
Moving Averages
10-Day
$19.60
Below
20-Day
$18.80
Above
50-Day
$17.10
Above
200-Day
$18.10
Above
60-Day Support
$14.83
60-Day Resistance
$21
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 3 โ€” ToppingScore: 26/100

Stock is losing momentum near highs. The 200-day SMA is flattening or beginning to turn. Historically, this stage precedes distribution.

Exercise caution; tighten risk management
Price vs 200 SMA
+7.7%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+0.63%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
1.04x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
15
Confidence: 70%

Entry & Exit Zones

Avoid
$16.26
Stop Entry Now Target
$20.07
No Entry
โ€”
No new entry โ€” distribution phase
Exit Target
$19.49
Reduce at current price ($19.49)
Stop Level
$16.76
Below SMA50 ($16.76)

Stage 3 distribution โ€” institutional selling pressure is building. Avoid new positions. If already holding, consider reducing and tightening stops below SMA50.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2025
Revenue$645M$546M$594M$760M
Gross Profit$111M$94M$91M$51M
Operating Income$11M$662,000$-6M$-46M
Net Income$1M$-6M$-13M$-44M
EPS (Diluted)$0.05$-0.26$-0.58$-1.93
Gross Margin17.2%17.1%15.3%6.7%
Operating Margin1.6%0.1%-1.0%-6.0%
Net Margin0.2%-1.1%-2.2%-5.8%

Why This Stock

Industrials

Tradability FilterGrade C โ€” 47/100Score impact: -1.1pt

Volume
49
196K avg/day
Dollar Vol
35
$4M/day
Float
51
21M shares
Mkt Cap
25
$477M
Range
100
87% spread
Composite Liquidity Score47/100
FDCBA
low volumelow dollar volumesmall cap

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$23.62$38.5848.1%Wide
2022$21.50$44.3569.4%Wide
2023$21.44$47.8776.3%Wide
2024$12.30$29.2981.7%Wide
2025$12.50$23.4160.8%Wide
3-Year Range
118.2%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.11x dampening
weinstein decliningslight revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
88.9%
Outstanding Shares
23M
Bid-Ask Spread
87.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.