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POOL

๐Ÿญ Industrials

Pool Corporation

Conservative #440Aggressive #714Low RiskMLโ†‘ 18pt
$227.18+1.73%
Day High$227.80
Day Low$219.77
Volume0.8M
Mkt Cap$8.5B
52W Low $21152W High $375
Market Cap
$8.4B
P/E Ratio
24.2
Sector avg: 49.9
Rev Growth
-4.2%
Sector avg: 19.0%
Earnings Growth
-17.0%
Profit Margin
8.2%
Sector avg: -48.2%
Debt/Equity
1.00

Why This Score

POOL scores 56.9 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 34.1% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.

Moderate penalties (-3.6 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score56.9
Fundamental Score48.7
ML Score88.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
80.6
6 Month
90.1
Primary
1 Year
94.8

Quality Assessment

B
Quality Grade
Good quality โ€” solid metrics, minor concerns possible

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
46
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
63
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
85
Grade A
Base
56.5
SHAP
+2.3
Factors
+1.7
Divergence
-3.6
Final
56.9
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

63AVG
Value70
Quality70
Growth35
Stability60
Investment80

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)53.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)49.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)77.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+1.0% to +8.0%
Medium-term
+1.9% to +12.6%
Long-term
+3.6% to +18.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 88

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score63.1/100
Target Upside+27.1%
Coverage21 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score45.9/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum-0.2%
6M Momentum-0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-8.4%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.62)
Relative Strength vs Sector-32.8%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.2)
Momentum Quality-0.162
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
31%
High risk โ€” cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P17
Revenue growth vs Industrials peers
Sector PE Rank
P48
Valuation vs Industrials peers
Sector FCF Rank
P79
Free cash flow vs Industrials peers
Growth Deviation
-0.1ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 49 relative to sector peers49/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 88th percentileP88
Blended score: 80% fundamental (49) + 20% ML (88) = 56.656.6
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 27% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade B
SHAP feature alignment: +2.3pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Divergence penalty: -3.6pt (ML 39pt higher)Divergence
Risk Factors

No risk factors identified.

Sector Peer Comparison(Industrials โ€” Rank #38 of 135 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
POOL56.924.2-4.2%8.2%$8.4B
FER84.112.27.4%35.3%$53.6B
NDSN77.235.13.8%17.4%$16.0B
OMAB76.420.14.3%32.7%$6.0B
ODFL76.339.8-0.9%20.4%$42.2B
FAST73.142.68.7%15.3%$52.8B
CSX71.526.5-3.1%20.5%$79.2B
WWD71.347.87.3%12.4%$23.1B
LECO71.331.5-4.4%11.6%$15.5B
PCAR71.028.2-4.2%12.4%$65.2B
CTAS70.841.97.7%17.5%$80.2B
RYAAY69.913.03.8%11.6%$35.5B
CPRT69.523.09.7%33.4%$36.2B
FELE69.335.5-2.1%8.9%$4.4B
NSSC68.934.5-3.8%24.7%$1.6B
AEIS68.081.221.4%8.3%$12.5B
Sector Average45.849.919.0%-48.2%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Pool Corporation distributes swimming pool supplies, equipment, and related leisure products in the United States and internationally. The company offers maintenance products, including chemicals, supplies, and pool accessories; repair and replacement parts for pool equipment, such as cleaners, filters, heaters, pumps, and lights; fiberglass pools, and hot tubs and packaged pool kits comprising walls, liners, braces, and coping for in-ground and above-ground pools; pool equipment and components for new pool construction and the remodeling of existing pools; and irrigation and related products consisting of irrigation system components, and professional lawn care equipment and supplies. It also provides building materials, such as concrete, plumbing and electrical components, functional and decorative pool surfaces, decking materials, tiles, hardscapes, and natural stones for pool installations and remodeling; and commercial products, including heaters, safety equipment, and commercial pumps and filters. In addition, the company offers other pool construction and recreational products comprising discretionary recreational and related outdoor living products, such as grills and components for outdoor kitchens. It serves swimming pool remodelers and builders; specialty retailers that sell swimming pool supplies; swimming pool repair and service businesses; irrigation construction and landscape maintenance contractors; and commercial customers that serve hotels, universities, and community recreational facilities. As of March 03, 2022, the company operated 410 sales centers in North America, Europe, and Australia. Pool Corporation was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Covington, Louisiana.

CEO
Peter D. Arvan
Employees
6,000
Beta
1.23
Industry
Industrial - Distribution
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
27.9
Oversold
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-39.4%
High: $374.74
From 52W Low
+7.8%
Low: $210.67
Moving Averages
10-Day
$231.80
Below
20-Day
$246.70
Below
50-Day
$247.10
Below
200-Day
$282.20
Below
60-Day Support
$210.67
60-Day Resistance
$278.17
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 2/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-19.5%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-7.39%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.43x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%
Recent Gap Down

Entry & Exit Zones

Avoid
No Entry
โ€”
No entry โ€” active downtrend
Exit Target
โ€”
Exit position if held
Stop Level
โ€”
No stop โ€” exit recommended

Stage 4 downtrend โ€” price is below both SMA50 and SMA200 with a declining 200-day average. Capital preservation takes priority. Do not buy into a downtrend.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$982M$1.5B$1.8B$1.1B
Gross Profit$296M$429M$535M$312M
Operating Income$52M$178M$273M$78M
Net Income$32M$127M$194M$54M
EPS (Diluted)$0.86$3.40$5.17$1.42
Gross Margin30.1%29.6%30.0%29.2%
Operating Margin5.3%12.3%15.3%7.2%
Net Margin3.2%8.8%10.9%5.0%

Why This Stock

IndustrialsP/E ratio of 24.2Earnings quality grade A

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 85/100Score impact: -6.1pt

Volume
91
774K avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$169M/day
Float
60
0K shares
Mkt Cap
75
$8.4B
Range
99
77% spread
Composite Liquidity Score85/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$313.92$582.2759.9%Wide
2022$278.10$566.0068.2%Wide
2023$296.89$423.9735.3%Wide
2024$293.51$422.7336.1%Wide
2025$227.40$374.7448.9%Wide
3-Year Range
60.4%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.49x dampening
weinstein basingslight revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
77.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.