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MIDD

🏭 Industrials

The Middleby Corporation

Conservative #425Aggressive #458Low Risk
$168.86+1.11%
Day High$169.43
Day Low$161.04
Volume0.6M
Mkt Cap$8.5B
52W Low $11152W High $169
Market Cap
$8.4B
P/E Ratio
17.4
Sector avg: 49.9
Rev Growth
-4.0%
Sector avg: 19.0%
Earnings Growth
6.9%
Profit Margin
11.1%
Sector avg: -48.2%
Debt/Equity
0.67

Why This Score

MIDD scores 57.5 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • ML model assigns a high-conviction signal (92/100), indicating strong pattern recognition across 82 features.
  • High conviction (97/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (10.1%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-5.9 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score57.5
Fundamental Score51.3
ML Score92.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
80.0
6 Month
89.4
Primary
1 Year
94.1

Quality Assessment

B
Quality Grade
Good quality — solid metrics, minor concerns possible

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
20
Topping
Sentiment (2.5%)
48
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
68
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
88
Grade A
Base
57.4
SHAP
+1.5
Factors
+0.9
Conviction
+1.6
Divergence
-3.9
Final
57.5
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

66AVG
Value70
Quality70
Growth60
Stability75
Investment55

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)54.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)61.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)79.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+0.6% to +7.6%
Medium-term
+1.4% to +11.9%
Long-term
+2.7% to +16.9%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 92

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score67.5/100
Target Upside+7.7%
Coverage20 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score48.3/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage3 — Topping
12M Momentum-0.0%
6M Momentum+0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-20.7%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.04)
Relative Strength vs Sector-11.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.1)
Momentum Quality-0.007
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
61%
High risk — cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P19
Revenue growth vs Industrials peers
Sector PE Rank
P86
Valuation vs Industrials peers
Sector FCF Rank
P87
Free cash flow vs Industrials peers
Growth Deviation
-0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
YES
Below-sector growth + cheap PE
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 51 relative to sector peers51/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 92th percentileP92
Blended score: 80% fundamental (51) + 20% ML (92) = 59.459.4
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 22% → 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade B
SHAP feature alignment: +1.5pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: +1.6pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Divergence penalty: -3.9pt (ML 41pt higher)Divergence
Risk Factors
Value trap penalty: -2.1ptValue Trap

Sector Peer Comparison(Industrials — Rank #36 of 135 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
MIDD57.517.4-4.0%11.1%$8.4B
FER84.112.27.4%35.3%$53.6B
NDSN77.235.13.8%17.4%$16.0B
OMAB76.420.14.3%32.7%$6.0B
ODFL76.339.8-0.9%20.4%$42.2B
FAST73.142.68.7%15.3%$52.8B
CSX71.526.5-3.1%20.5%$79.2B
WWD71.347.87.3%12.4%$23.1B
LECO71.331.5-4.4%11.6%$15.5B
PCAR71.028.2-4.2%12.4%$65.2B
CTAS70.841.97.7%17.5%$80.2B
RYAAY69.913.03.8%11.6%$35.5B
CPRT69.523.09.7%33.4%$36.2B
FELE69.335.5-2.1%8.9%$4.4B
NSSC68.934.5-3.8%24.7%$1.6B
AEIS68.081.221.4%8.3%$12.5B
Sector Average45.849.919.0%-48.2%

Company Overviewvia FMP

The Middleby Corporation designs, manufactures, markets, distributes, and services a range of foodservice, food processing, and residential kitchen equipment in the United States, Canada, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and Latin America. Its Commercial Foodservice Equipment Group segment offers conveyor, combi, convection, baking, proofing, deck, speed cooking, and hydrovection ovens; ranges, fryers, rethermalizers; steam cooking, food warming, catering, induction cooking, and countertop cooking equipment; heated cabinets, charbroilers, ventless cooking systems, kitchen ventilation, toasters, griddles, charcoal grills, professional mixers, stainless steel fabrication, custom millwork, professional refrigerators, blast chillers, cold rooms, ice machines, and freezers; and soft serve ice cream, coffee and beverage dispensing, home and professional craft brewing equipment, fry dispensers, bottle filling and canning equipment, and IoT solutions. The company's Food Processing Equipment Group segment provides batch, baking, proofing, conveyor belt, and continuous processing ovens; frying and automated thermal processing systems; tumblers, massagers, grinders, slicers, reduction and emulsion systems, mixers, formers, and blenders; battering, breading, and seeding equipment; water cutting systems, food presses, food suspension equipment, filling and depositing solutions, and forming equipment; and food safety, food handling, freezing, and defrosting and packaging equipment for customers producing hot dog, dinner sausage, poultry, and lunchmeat, as well as muffin, cookie, and bread products. Its Residential Kitchen Equipment Group segment offers kitchen equipment comprising cookers, stoves, dishwashers, microwaves, cooktops, wine coolers, ice machines, and ventilation and outdoor equipment. The company was formerly known as Middleby Marshall Oven Company and changed its name to The Middleby Corporation in 1985. The company was founded in 1888 and is based in Elgin, Illinois.

CEO
Timothy J. FitzGerald
Employees
10,616
Beta
1.40
Industry
Industrial - Machinery
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
63.9
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-0.3%
High: $169.44
From 52W Low
+52.4%
Low: $110.82
Moving Averages
10-Day
$162.80
Above
20-Day
$160.30
Above
50-Day
$154.50
Above
200-Day
$141.00
Above
60-Day Support
$116.53
60-Day Resistance
$169.44
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 3 — ToppingScore: 34/100

Stock is losing momentum near highs. The 200-day SMA is flattening or beginning to turn. Historically, this stage precedes distribution.

Exercise caution; tighten risk management
Price vs 200 SMA
+19.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+0.72%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
0.97x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
54
Confidence: 70%

Entry & Exit Zones

Avoid
$146.87
Stop Entry Now Target
$173.93
No Entry
No new entry — distribution phase
Exit Target
$168.86
Reduce at current price ($168.86)
Stop Level
$151.41
Below SMA50 ($151.41)

Stage 3 distribution — institutional selling pressure is building. Avoid new positions. If already holding, consider reducing and tightening stops below SMA50.

Technical zones only — derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$866M$982M$978M$907M
Gross Profit$336M$361M$371M$346M
Operating Income$161M$-554M$158M$141M
Net Income$37M$-513M$106M$92M
EPS (Diluted)$0.74$-10.15$1.99$1.69
Gross Margin38.8%36.8%38.0%38.2%
Operating Margin18.6%-56.4%16.1%15.5%
Net Margin4.3%-52.2%10.8%10.2%

Why This Stock

IndustrialsP/E ratio of 17.4Profit margin 11.1%Earnings quality grade AValuation below sector median (P/E 17.4)

Tradability FilterGrade A — 88/100Score impact: -12.5pt

Volume
90
741K avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$117M/day
Float
80
50M shares
Mkt Cap
75
$8.4B
Range
92
65% spread
Composite Liquidity Score88/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 15/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$136.82$198.9937%Wide
2022$120.30$201.3450.4%Wide
2023$109.59$162.0238.6%Wide
2024$118.41$161.0130.5%Moderate
2025$110.82$182.7349%Wide
3-Year Range
50%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.49x dampening
weinstein basingslight revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
98.5%
Outstanding Shares
50M
Bid-Ask Spread
65.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.