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53

LSTR

🏭 Industrials

Landstar System, Inc.

Conservative #484Aggressive #1110Low RiskHigh 82
$144.33-1.46%
Day High$147.74
Day Low$142.85
Volume0.6M
Mkt Cap$5.0B
52W Low $11952W High $165
Market Cap
$5.3B
P/E Ratio
45.6
Sector avg: 64.5
Rev Growth
-1.9%
Sector avg: 19.0%
Earnings Growth
-41.3%
Profit Margin
2.4%
Sector avg: -48.2%
Debt/Equity
0.04

Why This Score

LSTR scores 52.9 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Low volatility (5.5% annualized) — well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.04) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • High conviction (82/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated valuation at 45.6x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.

Minor adjustments (-2.5 points) applied. LSTR's rank of #484 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score52.9
Fundamental Score57.7
ML Score26.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
65.8
6 Month
73.5
Primary
1 Year
77.4

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
20
Topping
Sentiment (2.5%)
37
Negative
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
80
Grade A
Base
51.4
SHAP
+1.9
Factors
+1.0
Conviction
+1.1
Divergence
-2.5
Final
52.9
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)34.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)61.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)72.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-2.0% to +4.2%
Medium-term
-2.6% to +6.9%
Long-term
-3.2% to +9.5%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 26

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+4.0%
Coverage33 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score37.2/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage3 — Topping
12M Momentum-0.1%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-17.8%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.83)
Relative Strength vs Sector-19.8%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (1.5)
Momentum Quality-0.066
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
9%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P25
Revenue growth vs Industrials peers
Sector PE Rank
P22
Valuation vs Industrials peers
Sector FCF Rank
P58
Free cash flow vs Industrials peers
Growth Deviation
-0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 68 relative to sector peers68/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 77th percentileP77
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.5pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (68.0) + 9% ML (76.9) + SHAP(+2.5) = 71.3
Factor quality: +1.3pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 5.5%. Stability bonus of +10.9 points. Max drawdown 18% (-4.0 pts). Price momentum -8% (-0.6 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($5.3B market cap)+0.5 pts
Conviction bonus: +1.4pt (conviction=82)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-55.4%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Industrials — Rank #45 of 135 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
LSTR52.945.6-1.9%2.4%$5.3B
FER83.712.27.4%35.3%$51.9B
NDSN76.335.13.8%17.4%$16.6B
OMAB76.120.14.3%32.7%$6.2B
ODFL75.839.8-0.9%20.4%$40.6B
FAST72.742.68.7%15.3%$53.3B
WWD70.947.87.3%12.4%$22.8B
CSX70.926.5-3.1%20.5%$76.0B
LECO70.931.5-4.4%11.6%$16.2B
CTAS70.441.97.7%17.5%$77.7B
PCAR70.428.2-4.2%12.4%$66.7B
RYAAY69.713.03.8%11.6%$34.3B
CPRT69.123.09.7%33.4%$36.3B
FELE68.535.5-2.1%8.9%$4.8B
AEIS67.881.221.4%8.3%$11.9B
IESC67.730.916.9%9.1%$10.3B
Sector Average45.264.519.0%-48.2%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold33 analysts
Buy: 2Hold: 29Sell: 2
Price Target
$153consensus
Low $135Median $151High $170
+5.8% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Landstar System, Inc. provides integrated transportation management solutions in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and internationally. The company operates through two segments: Transportation Logistics, and Insurance. The Transportation Logistics segment offers a range of transportation services, including truckload and less-than-truckload transportation, rail intermodal, air cargo, ocean cargo, expedited ground and air delivery of time-critical freight, heavy-haul/specialized, U.S.-Canada and U.S.-Mexico cross-border, intra-Mexico, intra-Canada, project cargo, and customs brokerage, as well as offers transportation services to other transportation companies, such as third party logistics, small package and less-than-truckload service providers. It provides truck services through dry and specialty vans of various sizes, unsided/platform trailers, temperature-controlled vans, and containers; rail intermodal services through contracts with domestic and Canadian railroads; and air and ocean services through contracts with domestic and international airlines and ocean lines. This segment serves the automotive parts and assemblies, consumer durables, building products, metals, chemicals, foodstuffs, heavy machinery, retail, electronics, and military equipment industries. The Insurance segment reinsures certain risks of the company's independent contractors. The company markets its services through independent commission sales agents and third party capacity providers. Landstar System, Inc. was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in Jacksonville, Florida.

CEO
Frank A. Lonegro
Employees
1,400
Beta
0.83
Industry
Integrated Freight & Logistics
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
34.2
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-12.7%
High: $165.25
From 52W Low
+21%
Low: $119.32
Moving Averages
10-Day
$147.40
Below
20-Day
$152.60
Below
50-Day
$150.90
Below
200-Day
$137.80
Above
60-Day Support
$129.77
60-Day Resistance
$165.25
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 3 — ToppingScore: 9/100

Stock is losing momentum near highs. The 200-day SMA is flattening or beginning to turn. Historically, this stage precedes distribution.

Exercise caution; tighten risk management
Price vs 200 SMA
+4.7%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+0.53%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
1.69x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
57
Confidence: 70%
Key Reversal Detected (2026-02-12)

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$1.2B$1.2B$1.2B$1.2B
Gross Profit$156M$159M$243M$218M
Operating Income$29M$26M$56M$39M
Net Income$24M$19M$42M$30M
EPS (Diluted)$0.70$0.56$1.20$0.85
Gross Margin13.2%13.2%20.0%18.9%
Operating Margin2.4%2.2%4.6%3.4%
Net Margin2.0%1.6%3.4%2.6%

Why This Stock

IndustrialsValuation below sector median (P/E 45.6)

Tradability FilterGrade A — 80/100Score impact: +8.5pt

Volume
81
526K avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$77M/day
Float
64
34M shares
Mkt Cap
68
$5.3B
Range
74
38% spread
Composite Liquidity Score80/100
FDCBA

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.49x dampening
weinstein basingslight revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
99.1%
Outstanding Shares
34M
Bid-Ask Spread
38.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.