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FTAI

🏭 Industrials

FTAI Aviation Ltd.

Conservative #483Aggressive #217Low RiskModerate 63ML↑ 18pt
$302.03-0.63%
Day High$310.00
Day Low$300.00
Volume1.9M
Mkt Cap$31.0B
52W Low $8152W High $310
Market Cap
$28.7B
P/E Ratio
64.0
Sector avg: 64.5
Rev Growth
48.2%
Sector avg: 19.0%
Earnings Growth
-96.4%
Profit Margin
0.5%
Sector avg: -48.2%
Debt/Equity
42.28

Why This Score

FTAI scores 52.9 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Momentum reversion risk: Extreme momentum (120%) increases mean-reversion probability. 3-point penalty applied.
  • Elevated valuation at 64.0x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Above-average volatility (12.6%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 42.28) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Moderate penalties (-4.0 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score52.9
Fundamental Score48.6
ML Score70.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
51.2
6 Month
57.2
Primary
1 Year
60.2

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality
Quality Flags
Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 42.3x — balance sheet risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
69
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
98
Grade A
Base
49.9
SHAP
+3.2
Factors
+0.8
Divergence
-1.0
Final
52.9
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

39AVG
Value40
Quality55
Growth35
Stability35
Investment30

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)22.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)94.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)86.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-1.9% to +2.1%
Medium-term
-2.3% to +3.8%
Long-term
-2.8% to +5.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 70

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside+4.3%
Coverage18 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score69.1/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+1.2%
6M Momentum+0.8%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+36.9%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.69)
Relative Strength vs Sector+107.9%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+1.157
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P93
Revenue growth vs Industrials peers
Sector PE Rank
P13
Valuation vs Industrials peers
Sector FCF Rank
P51
Free cash flow vs Industrials peers
Growth Deviation
+0.6σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 42 relative to sector peers42/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 60th percentileP60
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.8pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (41.8) + 9% ML (60.2) + SHAP(+3.8) = 47.2—
Factor quality: +0.9pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 12.6%Low
Momentum mean-reversion: -2.0pt (120% 12m momentum)—
Market cap adjustment: +2.0 points ($28.7B market cap)+2.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -1.2pt (ML 18pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by -10 pointsGrade A
Quality concern: Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 42.3x — balance sheet riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Industrials — Rank #44 of 135 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
FTAI52.964.048.2%0.5%$28.7B
FER83.712.27.4%35.3%$51.9B
NDSN76.335.13.8%17.4%$16.6B
OMAB76.120.14.3%32.7%$6.2B
ODFL75.839.8-0.9%20.4%$40.6B
FAST72.742.68.7%15.3%$53.3B
WWD70.947.87.3%12.4%$22.8B
CSX70.926.5-3.1%20.5%$76.0B
LECO70.931.5-4.4%11.6%$16.2B
CTAS70.441.97.7%17.5%$77.7B
PCAR70.428.2-4.2%12.4%$66.7B
RYAAY69.713.03.8%11.6%$34.3B
CPRT69.123.09.7%33.4%$36.3B
FELE68.535.5-2.1%8.9%$4.8B
AEIS67.881.221.4%8.3%$11.9B
IESC67.730.916.9%9.1%$10.3B
Sector Average45.264.519.0%-48.2%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy18 analysts
Buy: 18
Price Target
$298consensus
Low $225Median $301High $350
-1.4% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

FTAI Aviation Ltd. owns and acquires aviation and offshore energy equipment for the transportation of goods and people worldwide. It operates through two segments, Aviation Leasing and Aerospace Products. The Aviation Leasing segment owns and manages aviation assets, including aircraft and aircraft engines, which it leases and sells to customers. As of December 31, 2023, this segment owned and managed 363 aviation assets consisting of 96 commercial aircraft and 267 engines, including eight aircraft and seventeen engines that were located in Russia. The Aerospace Products segment develops, manufactures, repairs, and sells aircraft engines and aftermarket components for aircraft engines. The company was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

CEO
Joseph Adams Jr.
Employees
580
Beta
1.57
Industry
Rental & Leasing Services
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
73.0
Overbought
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-2.6%
High: $310
From 52W Low
+270.8%
Low: $81.45
Moving Averages
10-Day
$286.20
Above
20-Day
$279.30
Above
50-Day
$245.40
Above
200-Day
$171.20
Above
60-Day Support
$162.07
60-Day Resistance
$310
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 90/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+76.4%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+28.17%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.86x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$658M$667M$677M$505M
Gross Profit$571M$210M$216M$162M
Operating Income$426M$208M$213M$158M
Net Income$112M$118M$165M$102M
EPS (Diluted)$1.08$1.10$1.57$0.87
Gross Margin86.7%31.4%31.9%32.0%
Operating Margin64.7%31.2%31.5%31.3%
Net Margin17.0%17.6%24.4%20.3%

Why This Stock

IndustrialsRevenue growth 48.2%

Tradability FilterGrade A — 98/100Score impact: -15.5pt

Volume
100
1.4M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$389M/day
Float
100
101M shares
Mkt Cap
90
$28.7B
Range
100
281% spread
Composite Liquidity Score98/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$18.16$29.7148.3%Wide
2022$14.29$25.3155.7%Wide
2023$17.00$47.9395.3%Wide
2024$44.65$177.18119.5%Wide
2025$75.06$201.0091.2%Wide
3-Year Range
168.8%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
98.3%
Outstanding Shares
103M
Bid-Ask Spread
281.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.